Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Lubbock, TX

Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

467 
WWUS84 KLUB 230201
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
901 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

TXZ021>043-231200-
/O.CAN.KLUB.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160323T0200Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0011.160323T1700Z-160324T0200Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-
901 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE... AND ALL OF THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS AND A
HIGH FIRE DANGER... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR 20 FOOT
WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR
LESS AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING
  TO BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE.

* HUMIDITY...WEDNESDAY WILL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 9 TO 11
  PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
  PLAINS...TO 15 TO 18 PERCENT FOR THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
  SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

* FUELS...ALREADY VERY DRY ARE LIKELY TO BE DRIER YET WEDNESDAY 
  AFTER VERY POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR
  BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. OUTDOOR BURNING IS BANNED IN YOAKUM... 
  COCHRAN...LAMB...CASTRO...SWISHER...HALL...CROSBY...
  DICKENS... AND GARZA COUNTIES.

* WIND SHIFT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 
  THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAY CAUSE A 
  SUDDEN CHANGE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR ALREADY OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DRY FUELS...AND WARM TEMPERATURES
CAN CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH. BE READY FOR SWIFT ACTION IF A FIRE
DEVELOPS IN YOUR AREA!

&&

$$

TXZ044-231200-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0011.160323T1700Z-160324T0200Z/
STONEWALL-
901 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH
OR MORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS AND A HIGH
FIRE DANGER...

* WIND...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEST
  WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 10 PERCENT.

* FUELS...WILL BE VERY DRY.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. OUTDOOR BURNING IS BANNED IN YOAKUM...
   COCHRAN...LAMB...CASTRO...SWISHER...HALL...CROSBY... 
  DICKENS... AND GARZA COUNTIES.

* WIND SHIFT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 
  THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAY CAUSE A 
  SUDDEN CHANGE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR ALREADY OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DRY FUELS...AND WARM TEMPERATURES
CAN CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH. BE READY FOR SWIFT ACTION IF A FIRE
DEVELOPS IN YOUR AREA!

&&

$$

288 
WWUS84 KLUB 230843
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
343 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

TXZ021>044-231645-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0011.160323T1700Z-160324T0200Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
343 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE... AND ALL OF THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS AND A
HIGH FIRE DANGER...

* WIND...VERY WINDY WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 25 TO
  35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 7 TO 14 PERCENT...THE
  HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
  PANHANDLE WITH THE LOWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE
  SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

* FUELS...VERY DRY. VERY LITTLE HUMIDITY RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED
  OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
  EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR
  BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. OUTDOOR BURNING IS BANNED IN
  YOAKUM... COCHRAN...LAMB...CASTRO...SWISHER...HALL...CROSBY...
  DICKENS...AND GARZA COUNTIES.

* WIND SHIFT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
  THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY
  CAUSE A SUDDEN CHANGE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR ALREADY OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DRY FUELS...AND WARM TEMPERATURES
CAN CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH. BE READY FOR SWIFT ACTION IF A FIRE
DEVELOPS IN YOUR AREA!

&&

$$

249 
WWUS84 KLUB 231941
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
241 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

TXZ021>044-240200-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160324T0200Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
241 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... AND ALL
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS AND A HIGH FIRE
DANGER...

* WIND...CONTINUED VERY WINDY WITH WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND
  GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE. MANY MESONET STATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED
  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY RUNNING 6 TO 14
  PERCENT WITH THE DRIEST VALUES NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
  STATE LINE.

* FUELS...VERY DRY.

* IMPACTS...A NUMBER OF FIRES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
  FIRES THAT DEVELOP CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
  STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. OUTDOOR BURNING IS BANNED IN YOAKUM...
  COCHRAN...LAMB...CASTRO...SWISHER...HALL...CROSBY...
  DICKENS...AND GARZA COUNTIES.

* WIND SHIFT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 
  THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING 
  AND MAY CAUSE A SUDDEN CHANGE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR ALREADY OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DRY FUELS...AND WARM TEMPERATURES
CAN CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH. BE READY FOR SWIFT ACTION IF A FIRE
DEVELOPS IN YOUR AREA!

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE DIGGING AND STRENGTHENING REACHING PEAK
MATURATION ON WEDNESDAY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A BREEZY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND A DRY AND WINDY WEDNESDAY. THE
DRYLINE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BACK INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER...BY 12Z...BOUNDARY SHOULD START
EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN WITH WIND SPEEDS RAMPING UP AREAWIDE AFTER
SUNRISE. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR EXTREMELY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER SETUP. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. COLD FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE JUST BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WINDS AND VERY
LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH HIGH FUEL VOLATILITY...HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE GFS IS STILL AROUND SIX
HOURS FASTER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THAN THE ECMWF. ULTIMATELY...MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MISS THE FA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL RECEIVE
A BOOST OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SEVERELY LACKING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ITS
OWN MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH WILL EXIST OUTSIDE OF THAT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY
MAY BRING PROSPECTS OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES EAST.

A MUCH DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS MAY DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
PROSPECTS LOOK TO BE MORE PROMISING FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR CRITICAL
TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A 100
KNOT 500MB WIND MAX LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM NEAR HOBBS TO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE /THUS THE LIKELY LOCATION OF A PLUME OF BLOWING
DUST/ SHOULD MARK THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA OF MAX
CONCERN WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN BOUNDARY EXISTING FROM THE BIG BID
UP TO THE NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTRY TO WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX
WHERE THE 850 MB THERMAL THROUGH SETS UP. ALL IN ALL A QUITE BROAD
THREAT AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE 500MB SET.
SO...FOR US...THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS LOOK TO BE THE AREAS OF GREATEST THREAT FOR RAPID WILDFIRE
SPREAD. THAT IS NOT TO SAY...HOWEVER...THAT THE NORTHWEST IS OUT
OF THE WOODS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY UP THAT WAY.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>043.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

26/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
558 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

TXZ021>044-231100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
558 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR
ALL COUNTIES IN THE OUTLOOK AREA EXCEPT STONEWALL. RECORD WARMTH
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND BRITTLE FUELS
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WILDFIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERAL HOURS OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 55 MPH WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR
ZERO AROUND OPEN FIELDS AND CONSTRUCTION SITES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE AS SEVERE AS TUESDAY DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.