Heat Advisory 2, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
353 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Isolated T-Storms forming again this afternoon along the surface
trough extending from Hereford to Brownfield. MLCAPE values on the
order of 1500-3000 J/kg east of the boundary so no shortage of
instability to support strong updrafts and deep, pulsing convection.
Dewpoint depressions of 40-50 degrees across will lead to good
evaporative cooling and the likelihood of microbursts and strong wind
gusts through the evening as cores collapse. Best deep layer shear
limited to the Panhandle into western Oklahoma so expect any
organized clusters to remain mostly north of the area though we
could see more scattered activity lingering across the Rolling
Plains, so place highest POPs there this evening.

Another shortwave trough is apparent on Water Vapor imagery across
northern Mexico and this disturbance will work clockwise around the
ridge centered along the I-20 corridor to bring another chance of
storms to the area Thursday afternoon. Surface winds are expected to
back early in the day with increased convergence along the surface
trough/weak dryline near the New Mexico border. Westerly winds west
of the dryline on Thursday likely to help boost temperatures once
again into the 103-106 degree range as the thermal ridge remains in
place. Decided to extend the current Heat Advisory into Thursday
afternoon as a result of the cumulative effect of three days of
105+ degree temperatures across portions of the western South
Plains. Later shifts may consider broadening the Heat Advisory
eastward as locations off the Caprock have seen heat index values in
the 105-110 degree range this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...
The hot pattern associated with the anomalously strong subtropical
anti-cyclone centered just to our south will ease temporarily Friday
through Sunday as a weakness aloftforms and allows improved
moisture and thunder chances. This weak upper trough will edge to
the east Sunday which might taper thunder chances, but solutions
suggest an opportunity then for a northwest flow environment as
ridging builds again just to the west. By Monday we expect ridging
to shift off to the east as a powerful July cyclone moves into the
Rockies and heights fall through the southern Rockies and adjacent
high plains. Solutions are spread far between southern and
northern camps with this storm, so we still have questions. But
this may enhance the downslope component and lead to hot
conditions, even with somewhat suppressed heights aloft. Upper
heights should tend to rebuild again in the southwest towards
midweek with increased confidence once more for hot and mostly dry
conditions. It will remain difficult to rule out isolated high-
based thunder for the early and middle parts of next week.
RMcQueen

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ027-028-033-034-
039-040.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ027-028-033-
034-039-040.

&&

24/05

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
358 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

TXZ028-029-034-035-062130-
HALE TX-LAMB TX-HOCKLEY TX-LUBBOCK TX-
358 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAMB...NORTHWESTERN
LUBBOCK...NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN HALE COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

AT 357 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ANTON...OR 14 MILES WEST OF ABERNATHY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ABERNATHY...ANTON...COTTON CENTER AND SPADE.

LAT...LON 3406 10197 3380 10176 3366 10220 3391 10224
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 233DEG 15KT 3382 10209

SC