Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1052 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

(Tonight)

Focus tonight will be on convective trends. Believe the most focused
and widespread area on convection will continue to be near the quasi-
stationary 850-hPa warm front through the early overnight hours
tonight. Have therefore shifted highest PoPs and heaviest QPF axis
to the north more toward the I-44 corridor in MO. This convection
should remain elevated in nature with the sfc boundary across the
far southern CWA. With the elevated convection...large hail is the
primary threat. Further to the south across southeast Missouri and
far southwest Illinois...wind gusts in addition to large hail are
both threats as convection along/south of the sfc front will likely
be more surface based. Severe threat should wane by late evening as
instability...both elevated and sfc-based...begins to fade to the
southeast of the area.

Maintained locally heavy rainfall mention just shifted the axis a bit
further to the north tied to the highest PoPs. It has been dry this
month and FFG values are high so it will take quite a bit of rain
over a short period of time. Concern would be in training of
convection which certainly could occur due to the quasi-stationary
low-level baroclinic zone.

Temperatures will be cooler tonight compared to the last several
nights but still a bit above normal. Lows in the 50s for most areas
are expected.

(Thursday)

Bulk of precipitation should have exited the CWA by Thursday morning
but have schc-chc PoPs for showers into early afternoon for far
southern and eastern sections of the CWA. Main story will be the
much more fall-like look and feel to the day on Thursday. High
temperatures are only expected to be in the low 60s across the area
due to lingering cloud cover and strong CAA at low
levels...certainly a big change from the upper 80s to low 90s of
just a couple of days ago.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Any lingering precip will have moved out of the area as surface low
moves east Thursday. Strong surface ridge builds eastward as low and
cold front move out shifting winds to the northwest. The northwest
flow as well as clearing behind the front will lead to cooler temps
Thurs night. Temps to remain slightly below normal through Sat
morning. There will be a slight warming trend as surface ridge
progress furthr to the east and shifts wind become southerly. a weak
cold front will move through the area Sun into Monday but this is
expected to bring no precip and cold temps should stay north of the
forecast area. The next chance of precip will be Wed as surface low
moves in from the western plains.

Walsh
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Back side of precipitation has moved out of KUIN and KCOU with VFR
conditions for entire forecast period. Otherwise, will just see
some isolated showers/storms through 08z-09z Thursday for STL
metro area with lingering MVFR cigs through 12z-14z Thursday. Then
cigs will lift and scatter out by 00z Friday for metro area. As
for winds, northeast winds to back to the north and remain
northerly for rest of forecast period.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Back side of precipitation to continue slowly sinking south with
isolated showers/storms through 08z-09z Thursday. Then lingering
MVFR cigs through 12z-14z, before lifting and scattering out by
00z Friday for metro area tafs. As for winds, northeast winds to
back to the north and remain northerly for rest of forecast
period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
842 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
842 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
640 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             JUNCTION CITY           37.57N  90.29W
10/19/2016  M1.75 INCH       MADISON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
647 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             5 W FREDERICKTOWN       37.56N  90.39W
10/19/2016  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            MO   PUBLIC

            NEAR OAK GROVE AND THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 72 AND HWY
            D...RELAYED VIA THE COUNTY SHERRIFF

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
655 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             AUXVASSE                39.02N  91.89W
10/19/2016  E0.50 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK REPORT

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1057 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. ELMO                39.02N  88.85W
10/19/2016                   FAYETTE            IL   PUBLIC

            8 INCH DIAMETER LIMB DOWN IN ST. ELMO. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

KJD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1222 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

ILZ059-200600-
MACOUPIN IL-
1222 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MACOUPIN COUNTY UNTIL
100 AM CDT...

AT 1222 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BRIGHTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARLINVILLE...GILLESPIE...BRIGHTON...BUNKER HILL...BENLD...SHIPMAN...
MOUNT CLARE...EAST GILLESPIE...EAGARVILLE...ROYAL LAKES...
DORCHESTER...MILES STATION...HORNSBY...PRUETT AND PLAINVIEW.

THIS ALSO INCLUDES  BEAVER DAM STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN ST LOUIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9007 3900 9009 3904 9015 3907 9015
      3938 8992 3917 8970 3914 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 226DEG 38KT 3905 9009

TES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1226 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

ILZ058-059-200615-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-
1226 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GREENE AND
NORTHWESTERN MACOUPIN COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1226 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR GREENFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENFIELD...PALMYRA...ATHENSVILLE...WRIGHTS...
MODESTO AND SCOTTVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN ST LOUIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 9019 3940 9035 3952 9020 3952 8979
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 226DEG 38KT 3939 9021

TES