Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
335 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Prefrontal trof to slide through forecast area this evening. Showers
and thunderstorms are already firing along it, but for the most part
should remain scattered in nature. Best chances initially will be
over central/northeast MO/west central IL, then slide southeast
across rest of forecast area this evening. Decent instability and
forcing, with the main threat being damaging winds. Otherwise, will
see storms weaken after sunset, then partly cloudy with lows in the
low to mid 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Quieter weather is expected on Sunday as the upper level trough
shifts northeast of our area.  Could not rule out a few showers or
storms across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL where there
will be better low level moisture and instability near a
southeastward moving weak surface trough.  Slightly cooler low
temperatures are expected for Sunday night due to less cloud cover,
light or calm surface winds, and a little lower surface dew points.
The potential for convection will gradually increase from west to
east on Monday and Monday night as the surface ridge shifts east of
our area and southerly flow returns.  There should also be weak
shortwaves moving eastward through the region in weak west-
southwesterly upper level flow.  A better chance of showers/storms
is expected by Wednesday and continuing through at least Wednesday
night as an upper level trough/low moves eastward through the
northern Plains sending a cold front southeastward through our
forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday night.  May have post frontal
showers on Thursday as a deep upper level trough moves through the
region, possibly continuing into Thursday night or even Friday until
the upper level trough and embedded shortwaves shifts east of our
area. Cooler temperatures can be expected beginning on Thursday due
to cold air advection behind the cold front. Drier conditions can
also be expected heading into the next weekend as a relatively large
surface ridge moves southeastward through our area with temperatures
slightly below normal for early June.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Storms have begun to develop ahead of next frontal boundary over
far northern MO. Coverage still expected to be spotty so kept
vicinity thunderstorms for taf sites between 19z and 02z Sunday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions outside of storms. South winds around
15kts to veer to the southwest by this evening, then veer to the
west to northwest behind the cold front mid morning on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL:
Storms have begun to develop ahead of next frontal boundary over
far northern MO. Coverage still expected to be spotty so kept
vicinity thunderstorms for metro area between 22z and 02z Sunday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions outside of storms. South winds around
15kts to veer to the southwest by 02z Sunday, then veer to the
west to northwest behind the cold front 16z Sunday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
342 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-291200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
342 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

GKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
457 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

MOZ052-282245-
LINCOLN MO-
457 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

AT 456 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TROY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TROY...ELSBERRY...MOSCOW MILLS...WINFIELD...DAVIS...HAWK POINT...
FOUNTAIN N' LAKES...FOLEY...CAVE AND NEW HOPE.

THIS ALSO INCLUDES  CUIVRE RIVER STATE PARK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3922 9072 3914 9071 3911 9068 3909 9068
      3906 9071 3900 9069 3887 9105 3887 9109
      3893 9111 3893 9113 3903 9119 3922 9082
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 240DEG 26KT 3899 9105

CARNEY