Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
640 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Convection a little closer than the previous two nights with a
broken line of showers and storms stretching from near KIRK to south
of Kansas City this morning. Most of the guidance shows this line
moving east-southeast into the CWA during the predawn hours and
reaching the STL Metro between 12-14Z.  Have chance/sct PoPs given
uncertainty in coverage and will NOWcast up until morning forecast
issuance.

This activity should steadily sink south into the eastern Ozarks and
southeast Missouri with the remainder of the CWA drying out and
warming up this afternoon. Can't rule out an isolated showers or
storm popping up during the heat of the day, but believe best
chances of convection will be further west as outlooked by SPC.  In
fact, much of the guidance keeps the evening hours dry for the area
with rain chances ramping up after 06z tonight from the west and
southwest. This uptick in PoPs heading into Friday will be in
response to the upper level system that has been parked across the
southwest CONUS finally ejecting into the Plains and large scale
lift overspreading the Midwest.

CVKING

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Still appears that the best chances of widespread rainfall will
occur on Friday with likely to categorical PoPs in order. Cloud
cover and precipitation will keep temperatures cooler with highs
only in the 70s and lower 80s. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will likely affect the CWA through Saturday night,
but none look particularly favorable for severe weather.

Appears that there will be a break from the rain on Sunday and
Memorial Day as temperatures warm back up into the middle 80s each
afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase again next week, as
southwest flow reestablishes itself across the central CONUS.
Temperatures look to remain warm with highs in the 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the St.
Louis region impacting all terminals between 12-14z with wind
gusts to 30 mph and visibilities as low as 2sm. Following the
initial line, showers and some thunder will linger through around
15z. Light showers may also impact KUIN and KCOU for a short time
through 15z. After 15z predominately VFR flight conditions are
expected at all the terminals through mid-evening. During the
evening a new area of showers and thunderstorms originating in
the Plains will push into western MO, and then move east-
northeast across central and eastern MO during the late evening
and overnight hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through KSTL between
12-14z with wind gusts to 30 mph and visibilities as low as 2sm.
Following the initial line, showers and some thunder may linger
through around 15z. After 15z predominately VFR flight conditions
are expected until the overnight hours. An area of showers and
thunderstorms originating in the Plains later this afternoon will
move into eastern MO during the overnight/early Friday morning
time frame.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
407 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
407 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

CVKING

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW HAZELWOOD         38.76N  90.37W
05/26/2016  M48 MPH          ST. LOUIS          MO   ASOS

&&

MILLER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
710 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HAIL             CHESTERFIELD            38.65N  90.58W
05/26/2016  M0.70 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

FGLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
728 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 AM     HAIL             WENTZVILLE              38.81N  90.86W
05/26/2016  M1.00 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLAT DISC WITH SPIKES

&&

WALSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
735 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

ILZ059-060-261315-
MONTGOMERY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
735 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN
MACOUPIN COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

AT 735 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM WHITE OAK TO MOUNT OLIVE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT
30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LITCHFIELD...HILLSBORO...STAUNTON...NOKOMIS...MOUNT OLIVE...
RAYMOND...WITT...WHITE OAK...FARMERSVILLE...TAYLOR SPRINGS...
SCHRAM CITY...IRVING...COALTON...WAGGONER...WHITE CITY...HARVEL...
BUTLER...OHLMAN...WALSHVILLE AND WENONAH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 55 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN EXITS 41 AND 63.

THIS ALSO INCLUDES  LAKE LOU YAEGER.

LAT...LON 3900 8969 3900 8980 3901 8980 3953 8966
      3952 8953 3935 8953 3935 8914 3928 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1235Z 258DEG 26KT 3952 8957 3906 8970

CVKING