Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS St. Louis, MO

May 11, 2016Randolph County, Saint Clair County, Washington County, Illinois

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 11, 2016, 3:59 PM CDT for Randolph County, Saint Clair County, Washington County, Illinois. It was in force for 19 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 11, 2016, 3:59 PM CDT (20:59 UTC)
Expired: May 11, 2016, 4:18 PM CDT
In force: 19 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Washington County, IL

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 11, 12:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	12 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 237 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 905 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 120 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

182 
WUUS53 KLSX 112059
SVRLSX
ILC157-163-189-112145-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0081.160511T2059Z-160511T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
359 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...
  NORTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 359 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BALDWIN...
  MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED LARGE HAIL TO 2
           INCHES IN DIAMETER WITH THIS STORM. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SPARTA...MARISSA...COULTERVILLE...TILDEN...BALDWIN...EDEN...PRAIRIE AND
  HOUSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3822 8944 3822 8959 3804 8960 3814 8997
      3822 8994 3822 8990 3824 8990 3825 8944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 268DEG 22KT 3818 8985 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TES

1 follow-up statement

233 
WWUS53 KLSX 112118
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
418 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILC157-163-189-112128-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-160511T2145Z/
WASHINGTON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-RANDOLPH IL-
418 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR AND NORTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3822 8944 3822 8959 3804 8960 3814 8997
      3822 8994 3822 8990 3824 8990 3825 8944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 268DEG 22KT 3818 8970 

$$

TES

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 11, 3:08 PM CDT, 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 11, 3:08 PM CDT, 51 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
308 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Sfc low continues to lift newd thru the area this afternoon. The
wrmfnt will slowly lift along with it, bringing a very unstable
airmass with it. While ongoing severe TSRA continue to push ewd in
IL, area across central MO continues to destabilize. This area
will become the focus for the next round of storms late this
afternoon thru the evening.

Guidance has room for improvement in the evolution for the
remainder of this event. Believe the NAM Nest, NSSL WRF and local
4km WRF are currently handling it best.

Environment over much of MO is recovering well ahead of the sfc
low with MUCAPE of 3000 J/kg or greater already. Based on the 18z
sounding from SGF, a small cap remains in place. Expect TSRA to
develop over the next few hours and move ewd thru the region
during the evening hours. Focus for convection shud shift swd
after Midnight tonight and out of the area by sunrise Thurs. Main
questions for this eve and overnight will be timing. Storms that
do develop will be capable of being severe.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

System to exit forecast area by Thursday morning. Could see some
lingering showers and thunderstorms over far southern portions of
forecast area through 18z Thursday. Then dry and cooler with highs
only in the low to mid 70s and lows Thursday night in the mid 40s to
low 50s.

Models continue to show next frontal boundary moving into northern
portions of forecast area by Friday afternoon. Some decent CAPES and
convergence along front, so SPC has placed areas along and north of
I70 in a marginal risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and
evening.

Then front exits region by day break on Saturday with dry wx for
remainder of weekend. Highs will only be in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Some extended models bring next weather system into
southwestern MO by Sunday with some showers/storms developing and
spreading northeast towards forecast area late Sunday and Sunday
night. For now only have slight chance/low end chance pops during
this period. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday
through Wednesday with several waves of activity. Temperatures to
remain at or below normal for this time of year.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

First round of TSRA is moving thru the region now. These storms
will move E, with redevelopment expected further W this afternoon.
The next round is expected to move thru the region late this
afternoon and thru the evening hours. The first round poses a
threat to large hail and damaging winds. The second round may also
be severe.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     62  75  53  76 /  80  10   5  20
Quincy          56  71  49  72 /  80   5   0  50
Columbia        56  72  49  75 /  80   5   5  30
Jefferson City  57  74  50  77 /  80   5   5  30
Salem           63  74  52  73 /  80  30  10  10
Farmington      62  74  49  75 /  80  20   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, May 11, 3:34 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-121200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
334 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. HAIL IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BYRD

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 11, 3:31 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             RED BUD                 38.21N  90.00W
05/11/2016  M1.25 INCH       RANDOLPH           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KELLY

Local storm report, May 11, 3:35 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARLYLE                 38.62N  89.37W
05/11/2016                   CLINTON            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. PONDING ON ROADS AS
            WELL

&&

WALSH

Local storm report, May 11, 3:36 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             RED BUD                 38.21N  90.00W
05/11/2016  M2.00 INCH       RANDOLPH           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRD

Local storm report, May 11, 3:38 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
338 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             RED BUD                 38.21N  90.00W
05/11/2016  M1.00 INCH       RANDOLPH           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WALSH

Local storm report, May 11, 3:45 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
345 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HAIL             NASHVILLE               38.35N  89.38W
05/11/2016  M0.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KELLY

Local storm report, May 11, 3:50 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BREESE                  38.61N  89.52W
05/11/2016                   CLINTON            IL   PUBLIC

            POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

KANOFSKY

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 11, 3:19 AM CDT	Dense Fog Advisory	LSX	Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Clinton, Fayette, Greene and 10 more	6 hr
May 11, 1:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Madison, Saint Clair	52 min
May 11, 1:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Monroe, Saint Clair	48 min
May 11, 1:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Madison, Saint Clair	54 min
May 11, 1:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Monroe, Saint Clair	65 min
May 11, 2:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Monroe, Randolph	63 min
May 11, 2:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Bond, Clinton, Fayette, Madison, Washington	43 min
May 11, 3:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Fayette, Marion	43 min
May 11, 3:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Bond, Clinton, Fayette, Washington	47 min
May 11, 3:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Monroe, Randolph, Saint Clair	45 min
May 11, 3:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Fayette, Marion	33 min
May 11, 3:52 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Clinton, Monroe, Randolph, Saint Clair, Washington	4 hr
May 11, 3:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Monroe, Randolph	63 min
May 11, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Monroe, Randolph	60 min
May 11, 5:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Randolph	52 min
May 11, 5:26 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Randolph	4 hr
May 11, 6:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Calhoun, Greene, Jersey, Pike	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.