Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS St. Louis, MO

218 
WWUS53 KLSX 210110
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
710 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

ILC133-163-MOC099-210119-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160221T0130Z/
ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-JEFFERSON MO-
710 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR...
SOUTHERN MONROE AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3797 8976 3806 9006 3808 9011 3811 9012
      3812 9008 3814 9004 3815 9004 3819 9003
      3818 8974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 276DEG 24KT 3813 9003 

$$

ILC157-210130-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160221T0130Z/
RANDOLPH IL-
710 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...

AT 709 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RED BUD...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EVANSVILLE...BALDWIN...PRESTON...PRAIRIE DU ROCHER...PRAIRIE...ELLIS
GROVE...RUMA...HOUSTON...WALSH...NEW PALESTINE AND MODOC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 8976 3806 9006 3808 9011 3811 9012
      3812 9008 3814 9004 3815 9004 3819 9003
      3818 8974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 276DEG 24KT 3813 9003 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
551 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016

Main concern in the near term is the potential for a few storms
which could produce large hail this evening.  Water vapor imagery is
showing that a weak shortwave trough is moving currently eastward
across the central Plains.  Latest objective analysis is showing mid
level lapse rates from the central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley are quite steep with values of 7-8 C/km.  This
has resulted in MUCAPES of 500-1000+ J/kg where surface dewpoints
have climbed in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon across southern
Missouri into southern Illinois. Do think that we will see scattered
thunderstorm development very late this afternoon and this evening
as low level moisture convergence increases ahead of the shortwave
trough.  Latest runs from the SPC and experimental HRRR seem to back
this idea up by showing convective development along and south of I-
70 by 00Z over central MO that will spread eastward through the
evening.  Given the very impressive bulk shear...a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible through the evening
hours...particularly along and south of I-70. The showers and a few
thunderstorms will then move southeast and eventually into the far
southeast part of the CWA by morning.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016

As mentioned above, any residual showers will be over just the
far southern parts of the CWA early on Sunday morning. A second
shortwave trough is expected to stay north of the area on Sunday
keeping us dry. Dry weather is expected to continue Monday and
Tuesday as the upper flow transitions from northwest to southwest
and a surface high moves across the area. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable normals.

The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that a trough will
dive down through the western CONUS early next week and close off as
an upper low by late Tuesday in the southern Plains.  Have increased
rain chances over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low begins to lift off to the
northeast.  Rest of the period looks to be dry according to the
ECMWF with temperatures at or just below normal.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 443 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016

Scattered showers and storms will impact COU and the St Louis
metro area this evening. This activity is just ahead of a weak
surface wave along the front which extends through COU and STL.
Most of this activity will shift e-se of COU later this evening
and for the St Louis metro area shortly after midnight. The low
level cloudiness should advect out of COU by late tonight and out
of the St Louis metro area by early morning. The surface wind will
become n-nely in COU and the St Louis metro area later this
evening as it already has in UIN north of the front.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers and storms will move through
STL this evening. Most of this activity should shift e-se of STL
around midnight with lingering low level cloudiness. The surface
wind will increase from a nly direction later this evening.
N-nwly surface winds will continue Sunday and Sunday evening as a
surface ridge builds southward into the area behind the front.
Another batch of low level clouds may advect into the area late
Sunday afternoon and evening.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-211215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
350 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
612 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             9 E STEELVILLE          37.97N  91.19W
02/20/2016  E0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             7 WNW POTOSI            37.97N  90.90W
02/20/2016  E0.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GKS