Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS St. Louis, MO

126 
WWUS53 KLSX 102130
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
430 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

ILC001-MOC111-127-102200-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-160710T2200Z/
ADAMS IL-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-
430 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN ADAMS...EASTERN LEWIS AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES...

AT 430 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CANTON TO NEAR MAYWOOD...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUINCY...CANTON...LA GRANGE...EWING...MAYWOOD...TAYLOR...
LIMA AND MEYER.

THIS ALSO INCLUDES  WAKONDA STATE PARK.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 9151 4020 9150 4020 9134 3981 9140
      3990 9180 4021 9160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 287DEG 10KT 4012 9152 3994 9165 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CVKING

597 
WWUS53 KLSX 102142
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
442 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

ILC001-MOC111-127-102200-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-160710T2200Z/
ADAMS IL-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-
442 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN ADAMS...SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS AND NORTHERN MARION
COUNTIES...

AT 442 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF CANTON TO NEAR LA GRANGE TO NEAR
PHILADELPHIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUINCY...CANTON...LA GRANGE...MAYWOOD...URSA...TAYLOR...
LIMA AND MEYER. 

THIS ALSO INCLUDES  WAKONDA STATE PARK.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 9150 4020 9134 3981 9140 3990 9180
      4003 9162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 296DEG 14KT 4016 9141 4001 9152 3990 9168 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CVKING

763 
WWUS53 KLSX 102157
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
457 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

ILC001-MOC111-127-102207-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-160710T2200Z/
ADAMS IL-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-
457 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN ADAMS...SOUTHEASTERN
LEWIS AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4020 9150 4020 9134 3981 9140 3990 9180
      4003 9162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 252DEG 3KT 4016 9141 4001 9152 3990 9168 

$$

CVKING

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
341 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Warm front over western Illinois looks to be nearly stationary at
this time.  Dewpoints have jumped up into the low to mid 70s along
and west of the Mississippi this afternoon and temperatures are a
little warmer than previously forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s.
This hot and humid weather is producing MLCAPE values in the 2500-
3000 J/Kg range.  This is more than enough for strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms; but with little to no deep layer shear and
shortwave ridging building aloft, think thunderstorms will stay
scattered with little or no organization. Storms should be
dissipating between 01-03Z this evening.  Expect a quiet remainder
of the night with lows a bit warmer than Sunday's mainly in the low
to mid 70s.

Southerly flow will continue on Monday pushing 850mb temps above 20C
across much of central and northeast Missouri into west central
Illinois.  Should feel like a fairly typical hot and humid mid-July
day with air temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across the
area and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s again.  Could see some
afternoon thunderstorms again primarily over southern portions of
the CWFA as a weak vortmax drifts across southern Missouri.

Carney

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Thunderstorm chances will increase over the northeast Missouri and
west central Illinois on Monday night and Tuesday as the upper ridge
moves off to the east and the upper flow becomes move zonal. Low
level moisture convergence will increase late Monday night over
northeast Missouri ahead of an approaching cold front which will
help generate a chance of showers and thunderstorms.  The chance of
showers and thunderstorms will spread into west central and south
central Illinois on Tuesday where the models suggest that MCS
activity will move across Iowa and then dive south around the
periphery of the upper ridge and then move southward into Illinois.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of
the cold front on Tuesday afternoon and move into the CWA on Tuesday
night.  The chance for storms will continue into Wednesday as a weak
shortwave trough will approach the area.

Above normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday when
850mb temperatures climb into the 20-22C range.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Still looks like an active period as the ECMWF and the GFS generally
agree that there will be quasi-zonal upper flow over the area. Still
looks like one shortwave trough will move across the area with an
attendant cold on Thursday that will help keep temperatures at or
slightly below normal through Saturday.  The front will stall just
south of the area in the zonal flow and the GFS and ECMWF are each
showing shortwaves moving across the area which will keep a chance
of showers and thunderstorms going Friday and Saturday.  By Saturday
night and Sunday, the front will begin to lift back north across
Missouri and Illinois at the same time the upper ridge builds over
the central CONUS.  Highs next Sunday will be above normal behind
the warm front.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

A warm front is moving northeast across the region today. Expect
widely scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon...primarily
along and west of the Mississippi River in the warmer and more
humid air southwest of the front. Think thunderstorms will
diminish quickly after 00Z. VFR flight conditions are expected
outside of storms.

Specifics for KSTL:

A warm front moved through the terminal earlier today. Think
widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of
Lambert this afternoon as warmer and more humid air moves into the
region in the wake of the front. Any storms that do form should
dissipate quickly after 00Z. VFR flight conditions are expected
outside of storms.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
333 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

BRITT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
411 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

MOZ019-102200-
LEWIS MO-
411 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 410 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CANTON AND MONTICELLO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9150 4024 9151 4020 9150 4018 9151
      4012 9151 4009 9150 4004 9173 4018 9179
      4025 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 246DEG 10KT 4014 9165

CVKING