Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS St. Louis, MO

087 
WGUS83 KLSX 061656
FLSLSX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

MOC073-061705-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160806T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GASCONADE MO-
1156 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...THE FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1200 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
GASCONADE COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED...NO LONGER
POSING A THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD
CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3838 9164 3839 9137 3821 9137 3821 9153
      3815 9153 3815 9164

$$

GKS

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
950 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2016

Active few hours of thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall
over a small area over central and southeast Missouri continues
with the area slowly shifting to the east southeast.  Will
continue to carry higher PoPs over southeast Missouri until the
storms move out of the area. While there will continue to be a
chance of thunderstorms along and south of I-70 through the
night...the greatest chance for storms will be shifting southward
with the cold front. Have made minor adjustments to the rest of
the forecast based on trends.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2016

It appears that the cold front has just passed through COU and
STL looking at their increased north-northwesterly surface winds
along with the tighter surface dew point gradient across northern
MO. Scattered showers and storms were developing across parts of
southeast MO and southwest IL, south and east of STL ahead of the
front where the atmosphere has destabilized due to surface heating.
Should continue to get more convective development, especially
during the late afternoon and early evening hours across southeast
MO and southwest IL as the cold front continues to drop slowly
southward, possibly making it to near the AR border by 12Z Saturday.
Weak shortwaves moving through the area may help to keep the chance
of showers/storms going during the overnight hours across southern
portions of MO and IL.  A surface ridge building southward into the
region behind the cold front will lead to slightly cooler low
temperatures tonight along with lower humidities, particularly for
northeast MO and west central IL.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2016

(Saturday through Monday)

The sfc cdfnt is expected to be across srn MO into srn IL Sat
morning. A few showers shud be along and just north of this fnt in
the morning, possibly as far north as I-70 in MO and U.S. 50 in IL.
This activity shud quickly refocus further south with the fnt by the
afternoon. With a large sfc ridge building into the region, have
lowered PoPs Sat afternoon thru the night.

However, for the remainder of the short term, have kept a fair
amount of PoPs going with the region under NW flow and ample
moisture in the region.

The going temp forecast appears to be on track and have made only
minor tweaks. Relatively cool temps are expected thru the period
with ample convective debris expected.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Mdls suggest height rises across the region thru the extd period
which seems reasonable. However, none of the guidance really build
in warmer 700mb temp into the region. The GFS and GEM also suggest
the retreating wrmfnt hanging up across the area providing a focus
thru much of the period. The ECMWF also suggests this to a lesser
degree, but with a weaker sfc boundary.

Due to the higher precip chances, have kept temps lower than what
one would normally expect given the progd 850mb temps. If the rain
does not materialize, temps will likely be some 3-5 degrees warmer.
This will likely cause heat index values to be high enuf for
headlines at some point during this period.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2016

Expect mainly dry and VFR forecast through the period. Some MVFR
fog is possible for parts of the area, but confidence is too low
to add to the terminals at this time.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Forecast will be mainly dry and VFR.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
351 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-061200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
351 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
824 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 S BLAND               38.20N  91.63W
08/05/2016  M5.00 INCH       GASCONADE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 600 PM. PETERSON
            ROAD OFF HWY C IS WASHED OUT. COUNTY ROAD 426 ALSO
            COVERED WITH WATER. THESE REPORTS ARE ALL SOUTH OF
            BLAND.

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
845 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KOELTZTOWN              38.32N  92.04W
08/05/2016                   OSAGE              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY T NEAR KOELTZTOWN IS WASHED OUT.

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
846 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FREEBURG                38.32N  91.92W
08/05/2016                   OSAGE              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY P NEAR COUNTY ROAD 524 WASHED OUT. WATER RESCUE
            NEAR FREEBURG AS WELL.

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
905 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W STEELEVILLE         38.01N  89.72W
08/05/2016                   RANDOLPH           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAMPERS STRANDED AT THE INDIAN SPRINGS CAMP GROUND WEST
            OF STEELVILLE DUE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
940 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W STEELVILLE          37.97N  91.41W
08/05/2016                   CRAWFORD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAMPERS STRANDED AT THE INDIAN SPRINGS CAMP GROUND WEST
            OF STEELVILLE DUE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1007 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CUBA                    38.06N  91.40W
08/05/2016                   CRAWFORD           MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SMALL CREEK ON THE WEST SIDE OF CUBA FLOODED INUNDATING
            A MOBILE HOME PARK. RESIDENTS EVACUATED BY EMERGENCY
            SERVICES.

&&

CARNEY