Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS St. Louis, MO

966 
WGUS83 KLSX 011449
FLSLSX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
949 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

MOC019-027-051-135-151-011458-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FA.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160801T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COLE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONITEAU MO-BOONE MO-OSAGE MO-
949 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR COLE...SOUTHWESTERN
CALLAWAY...MONITEAU...SOUTHERN BOONE AND OSAGE COUNTIES...

FLOOD WATER IS RECEDING...AND ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE...THE FLOODING THREAT HAS ENDED. 

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3868 9262 3893 9250 3863 9164
      3829 9165 3829 9219 3834 9220 3832 9226
      3834 9229 3834 9241 3843 9241 3843 9262
      3856 9280 3860 9284

$$

BROWNING

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
356 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

A rather classic backbuilding MCS has evolved overnight. Fortunately
it appears the main focus and thrust of heavy precipitation has
shifted to the west of the CWA from southwest IA into western MO.
Late yesterday evening and early into the overnight hours a
persistent region of training with continuous upwind development
produced rainfall rates in excess of 4 in/hr and thus far rainfall
totals in excess of 7 inches across parts of central MO. A flash
flood watch was previously issued and the new forecast will trim
back the eastern extent and end the watch at 15z. Present
indications are that central and southeast MO should have the
highest pops this morning. I will keep a mention of heavy rain in
central MO, however with the reservoir of high CAPE air from
southwest MO into eastern KS, and the southwesterly LLJ providing
the greatest lift on the western upwind flank of the MCS on the cool
side of large scale outflow boundary, I think the greatest heavy
rain threat should stay largely west of the CWA. The MCS should
weaken during the late morning with considerable cloud cover
hampering temps. I backed off pops this afternoon to chances but
don't have any great feel for location due to unknowns in the warm
front position and any residual boundary.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

The main changes for the next few days is to increase pops back to
the west tonight and Tuesday, and to some degree Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The current MCS should hamper the northeast
retreat of the warm front tonight and there are suggestions that
the main corridor to watch for thunderstorms may be from eastern
IA down along the MS River. The ECMWF is further east but it erred
tremendously on the current event on the 00Z 7/31 model run and
the GFS and NAM had much better depictions. The NAM once again
develops a elongated N/S region of MCON this evening across
eastern MO associated with the west-southwesterly LLJ. Given the
slower approach to the retreating warm front and potential of ongoing
convection on Tuesday morning across eastern MO/western IL, there
is a new element of uncertainty in the development of dangerous
heat. Central MO should certainly see afternoon heat index values
in the 100-103 range on Tuesday, however there is some doubt of
the earlier anticipated 105+ readings further east in St. Louis
metro. It appears that by Wednesday and definitely by Thursday we
should see dangerous levels of heat become more widespread. Given
some of the uncertainty in the Tuesday forecast, at this juncture
I will continue with the excess heat watch. I would expect unless
there are more convection/cloud caveats, there will be some mix of
advisories or warnings for heat by Wednesday continuing into
Friday.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Area of TSRA have developed and are expected to train sewd across
much of the same region over the next few hours. The biggest
impact will be COU, which is expected to be right on the nrn edge
of these storms. SHRA with some TS are expected to impact
STL/SUS/CPS tonight as well, but shud be lower impact before TSRA
push south of these terminals. UIN has the best chances of
remaining dry attm, but believe chances are best around sunrise.
Expect some redevelopment Mon afternoon, but location will depend
on sfc boundaries.

Winds are expected to remain largely sely overnight, but will
depend on outflow from storms. Winds on Mon are more uncertain as
the outflow boundary may stay south of most of the terminals thru
much of the forecast period.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
     Louis MO.

     Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO.

IL...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Madison IL-Saint Clair IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
413 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-020915-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
413 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST ANTICIPATED HEAT INDEX
VALUES...FROM 105 TO 110 EACH DAY...ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA...WHERE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE ASKED TO RELAYED RAINFALL REPORTS
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS WELL AS ANY OCCURENCES OF FLOODING.

GLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1228 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KLIEVER                 38.70N  92.50W
08/01/2016  M2.28 INCH       MONITEAU           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.28 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES. STILL RAINING HARD IN
            KLIEVER.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1259 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KLIEVER                 38.70N  92.50W
08/01/2016  M4.76 INCH       MONITEAU           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4.76 INCHES IN THE PAST HOUR.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
115 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       JEFFERSON CITY          38.57N  92.19W
08/01/2016  E2.00 INCH       COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL RAINING HARD.

0100 AM     HAIL             JEFFERSON CITY          38.57N  92.19W
08/01/2016  E0.25 INCH       COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL RAINING HARD.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
303 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JEFFERSON CITY          38.57N  92.19W
08/01/2016                   COLE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            JEFFERSON CITY POLICE REPORTED A COUPLE OF WATER
            RESCUES. MISSOURI BLVD HAS FLOODED AREAS AND SEVERAL
            NEIGHBORHOOD STREETS ARE ALSO FLOODED.

&&

JPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
501 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HARTSBURG               38.70N  92.31W
08/01/2016                   BOONE              MO   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER 1 TO 2 FEET DEEP ON MAIN STREET.

&&

JPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
507 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S HOLTS SUMMIT        38.62N  92.12W
08/01/2016                   CALLAWAY           MO   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGHWAY 94 FLOODED IN EXTREME SOUTHERN CALLAWAY COUNTY.

&&

JPK