Special Weather Statement, NWS Los Angeles, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
405 AM PST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. FAIR SKIES AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERS SLO AND MOST OF SBA COUNTIES. THE BIGGEST FEATURE ON THE
COLD FRONT IS A VORT MAX WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL JET
AND IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS
LIKE IT IS GOING TO SWING THROUGH THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL NOT
MAKE LANDFALL. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. LIFTED INDEXES WILL FALL TO
ABOUT -3 AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
ANYWHERE TODAY EITHER WITH THE FRONT OR IN THE UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. CAPES ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR SRN CA IN THE 1000 TO
1500 J/KG RANGE AND THIS MUCH ENERGY IS ENOUGH PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL. THERE IS QUITE A BIT LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN WITH
SUNDAYS RAIN SO RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE...IN GENERAL...LESS THAN
YDYS RAIN BUT DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM THERE
A FEW AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN DUE TO TSTMS. TODAYS RAIN WILL BE
MUCH LESS HOMOGENEOUS THAN YDYS ALSO. IN GENERAL RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
AREAS AFFECTED BY TSTMS.

THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE ALL SORTS OF WEATHER TO DEAL WITH AND ITS
A GOOD DAY TO AVOID MTN TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...LOW ENOUGH TO AFFECT TRAVELERS ON THE
GRAPEVINE. MANY AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL SEE 5 OR 10 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL AS LOW AS
4500 FEET. THE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND THEN WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 60 MPH. THE COMBINATION
OF THE SNOW AND WINDS HAVE CREATED WINTER STORM WARNING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE VTA AND LA MTNS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SBA MTNS WILL HAVE MUCH LESS
SNOW ESP IN NON REMOTE AREAS AND WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
STRONG A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE MTNS (AS ARE THE SLO
COUNTY MTNS)

WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. STRONG WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE COLD AIR POURS
IN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR INTO THE SAN FERNANDO VLY AND OVER THE
SANTA MONICA MTNS. THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
WILL ALSO SEE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

THINGS WILL QUICKLY SETTLE DOWN ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING NORTH SLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY
AFFECT TRAVELERS ON THE I-5 CREATED BY THE NORTH UPSLOPE WINDS BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND MAX TEMPS WILL RISE. THE
BUILDING RIDGE AND THE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND PUT MAX TEMPS RIGHT BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.

MORE RIDGING AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL COME IN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN
WITH MAX TEMPS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT IT WILL BE A LITTLE
WEAKER AND THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH IT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

FRIDAYS FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE MURKY AS THE MDLS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME NAILING DOWN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT HAS VARIED BY ABOUT 18 HOURS BOTH EARLIER AND LATER. RIGHT
NOW THE BEST GUESS FOR THE FRONT IS LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TOO BIG A SYSTEM AND MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN MAYBE A LITTLE MORE OVER SLO
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY IF THE SYSTEM HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARMING THAN IF THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLIER.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER NOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

BROAD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AND
WHILE THERE IS NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR RAIN IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ENOUGH LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...07/12Z

AT 09Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO NOTABLE INVERSION.

OVERALL... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. VARIABLE
CIGS AND VSBY ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES
ACROSS THE REGION AS A CONVECTIVE WEATHER EVENT MOVES THROUGH.
THERE IS A THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z AND
A CHANCE OF LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WITH THE STORM
PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VARIABLE CIGS
AND VSBY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES 13Z-21Z AS
A CONVECTIVE WEATHER EVENT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A THIRTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND A CHANCE OF
LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WITH THE STORM PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VARIABLE CIGS
AND VSBY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES 13Z-21Z AS
A CONVECTIVE WEATHER EVENT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A TWENTY FIVE
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND A CHANCE OF
LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WITH THE STORM PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...07/230 AM.

A MODERATELY STRONG STORM SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING... BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THEN A GALE WARNING WILL
TAKE EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...07/230 AM.

HIGH SURF WILL PEAK ON THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE SURF FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT SURF WILL EXCEED 20 FEET ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND 15 FEET FOR
FAVORED WEST-FACING BEACH SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION DURING THESE
TIMES. SURF WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE... AROUND
800 AM THIS MORNING... 900 PM THIS EVENING... AND 830 AM TUESDAY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THAT. SIMILARLY...A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION
WHEN THE HIGH SURF WARNING ENDS AT NOON ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS
      MORNING FOR ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
      34>36. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35-40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      37-38-51. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONE
      39. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      39-52. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON PST
      TUESDAY FOR ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PST THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONE 40. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM PST TUESDAY
      FOR ZONES 41-87. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST
      TUESDAY FOR ZONES 44>46-547. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 53-54. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONE
      59. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
      645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
      TUESDAY FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP/KJ

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
KJ

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