Small Craft Advisory 62, NWS Los Angeles, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
806 PM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain in place through mid-week resulting in
warm conditions inland, with night through morning low clouds and
fog near the coast. The marine layer will deepen and expand as a
low moves in from Thursday to Sunday, and inland temperatures
should return to the seasonal normals by the weekend. Monday and
Tuesday may have a warmup as high pressure approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A Wind Advisory was added for the I-5 corridor earlier this
evening for gusty NW winds. At 5pm the Sandberg ASOS was gusting
to about 50 MPH. These winds have since backed off, but the NAM
was showing the strongest winds occurring later this evening, so
will let the Wind Advisory continue. The next shift may be able to
end the advisory a little early if the winds don't re-develop.
Isolated gusts to 45 MPH are also likely for western Portions of
the Antelope Valley tonight. So far there hasn't been much wind
along the Santa Ynez Range in southern SBA County and the SBA-SMX
gradient is relatively weak (-2.2 mb), so likely will not need
any wind advisories for there tonight.

The rest of the forecast is unchanged. The 00Z LAX and VBG
soundings indicated that the marine layer was about 1500-1800 ft
deep. The marine layer should continue to shrink overnight and
there could be some dense fog for parts of the coastal plain as a
result. The best chance for dense fog will be on the Central
Coast.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

Strengthening ridge aloft and weakening onshore flow will lead to
a shrinking marine lyr tonight and warmer temps on Wednesday.
Model soundings indicate around 1500' of lowering tonight which,
combined with the 2mb offshore trends should be enough to keep
clouds out of the valleys, but the lower cloud bases will likely
also result in some dense fog along the coastal areas. Warmer
coastal valley areas likely to jump up into the low to mid 90s
while parts of the Antelope Valley will reach 105.

Another day of gusty, but mostly sub-advisory level winds in the
Antelope Valley today but should be weaker tomorrow. Models
also advertising some north winds through the Santa Ynez Range
the next few nights, probably strongest Wednesday night where
there could be some very low end advisory level gusts at times
below passes and canyons.

Ridge starts to break down Thu but just slight cooling expected
with a stronger onshore push in the afternoon. More cooling
expected Friday as troughing develops along the west coast leading
to a deeper marine lyr and likely at least a weak eddy
circulation.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

Weak troughing to continue through the weekend but heights aloft
not really all that low. Enough to push the marine lyr clouds well
into the valleys each night with clearing to within a few miles of
the coast each day. Cooling trend will continue at least through
Saturday. Either little change or slightly warmer Sunday as the
trough starts to exit to the east and heights build and onshore
gradients weaken. Additional warming through early next week,
mainly inland, but not expecting a major heat wave with highs
mostly 3-6 degrees above normal for inland areas and near normal
for the coast as clouds struggle to clear there.

&&

.AVIATION...08/0000Z.

At 2330Z, the marine layer depth was around 1500 feet. The top of
the inversion was near 4400 feet with a temperature of 23 degrees
Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in the 00z TAFs. A shrinking marine
layer depth should result in lower CIGS than last night for
coastal sites, but will likely keep CIGS out of the valley areas.
Dense fog with VSBY 1/4 mi or less will be possible for some
coastal TAF sites from about 10-14Z. The best chance for VLIFR
conditions are on the Central Coast. There is a small chance for
VLIFR conditions at SBA and OXR. Sundowner winds should keep CIGS
out of SBA, but could produce some northerly LLWS from about
02-06Z.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in TAF, but timing of flight
category changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 10
percent chance for LIFR conditions from 11-14Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chance of
IFR/LIFR conditions from about 11-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...07/800 PM...

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions will likely continue across
the outer waters through the end of the week. The strongest winds
will likely occur late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night, when gale force winds will be possible. As a result, a Gale
Watch will be issued for the outer waters.

The other change with the evening update will be to add a SCA for
the inner waters on the Central Coast for Wednesday afternoon and
evening. SCA conditions will be possible again for Thursday
afternoon and evening.

SCA conditions will be possible across western portions of the
Santa Barbara Channel Wednesday afternoon and evening, then again
on Thursday. Otherwise SCA conditions are not expected through the
end of the week for the inner waters south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Wednesday For zones
      53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT
      Wednesday For zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late
      Wednesday night For zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...Sukup/MW
AVIATION...Sukup
MARINE...Sukup
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
607 PM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-081300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
607 PM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE I-5 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SUKUP