High Wind Watch 5, NWS Los Angeles, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST Sat Nov 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of storm systems will bring showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms to the area this weekend along with wintery
mountain weather and well below normal temperatures. Another shot
of precipitation is possible Monday for Santa Barbara and San Luis
Obispo counties. It will be very windy in the Antelope Valley and
the Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

The start of a rainy weekend is setting up. There is 541 DM upper
low just to the west of Eureka. A sfc low was nearly directly
underneath it. A cold front extended down to the SSW. The upper
low will merge into a larger upper trof which will move through
the state this afternoon and evening. The cold front will also
pass through the area. Rain will develop across the central coast
this morning and will then overspread the rest of the area this
afternoon. There is enough instability and lift to create a slight
chc of TSTMs this afternoon from SLO to VTA county. Then a slight
chc of TSTMs this evening for for LA county. There will be a
brief lull in the action later tonight but then a second colder
impulse will slide over the area Sunday morning and afternoon.
This feature at one time looked quite impressive but is now
forecast to take a drier inside track which will limit its
potential both in coverage and rainfall.

The bulk of the rainfall will occur today. Rainfall totals for the
next 48 hours call for the coasts and vlys to recieve about a
half inch to an inch of rain. The NW tip of SLO county will as
always see much more rain. The coastal slopes and foothills will
see a little more rainfall. The interior will see less.

This storm will be the coldest of the season. Snow levels will
start out around 6000 feet this morning then quickly lower to
5000 to 5500 feet tonight. The colder storm on Sunday will further
lower the snow levels to 4000 feet Sunday and locally down to
3500 feet which would impact travel on the mtn passes. The
L.A./VTA mtns will see 3 to 6 inches of snow with isolated 8 inch
amounts across the highest peaks. The passes could see anywhere
from a dusting to an inch of snow. A winter weather advisory is in
effect until 600 am Monday to cover the snow as well as the winds.

The cold air pouring in behind these systems will generate some
strong winds. There will be decent southerly winds ahead of the
front today. Most areas will see 15 to 25 mph winds with locally
stronger gusts. Strong west winds will develop across the
Antelope vly Sunday morning. There is a possibility of 60 mph
gusts across the western portion and a High Wind Watch is in
effect from mid morning to the mid evening. The later Sunday
afternoon a strong north wind sets up. Advisory level winds for
sure and perhaps warning level wind gusts for the VTA and LA mtns.

Two very cool days for sure. max temps Will be 5 to 12 degrees
blo normal. Most temps across the coasts and vlys will be in the
lower to mid 60s with a smattering of upper 50s.

North slope showers will continue across the mtns of VTA and LA
county and will spill into the Cuyama Vly as well. One last
impulse will affect slo and nrn SBA counties. It is worth noting
that each mdl run has strengthened this feature so it needed
watching. The strong north winds will continue through the day and
will affect the mtns and many of the vlys. Max temps will rise a
few degrees but will still be well below normal.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A ridge will move over the area for Tuesday and Wednesday. At the
sfc high pressure will build into the Great Basin Tuesday and then
strengthen through Wednesday. It looks like there may be a need
for some low end advisories esp on Wednesday. Max temps will rise
under the influence of higher hgts and offshore flow and will
most coast and vly temps will end up right around normals. The
Interior sections will remain blo normal.

It looks like a cold spell will set up for Friday and Saturday as
a cold upper low retrogrades out of the great basin and moves over
SRN CA. No rain just more below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/06Z.

AT 0502Z, there was a surface based marine inversion at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was around 1800 feet with a
temperature of 18C.

VFR conditions across the region at this time. Areas of stratus
with MVFR conds are expected to develop across the coastal plain
overnight ahead of a cold front. As this front moves across the
region Sat, widespread MVFR cigs with local IFR cigs are expected
Sat into Sat night. Periods of rain are expected to begin in the
morning across SLO and SBA Counties, and in the afternoon across
VTU and L.A. Counties. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
late Saturday afternoon and evening.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 06z TAF. There is a 30 percent
chance that MVFR cigs will not materialize late tonight, and
instead arrive Sat afternoon. There is a 10 to 15 percent chance
of a thunderstorm Sat evening.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in the 06z TAF. There is a 20
percent chance of MVFR cigs between 12z and 18z.

&&

.MARINE...

25/900 PM.

Seas will be at or above SCA levels across the outer waters overnight.
There will likely be a period of SCA level south winds across much of
the outer waters late tonight and Sat. Seas will build to SCA levels
across northern inner waters overnight.

A cold front will move thru the waters Sat and Sat night. There
is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the waters late Sat
afternoon and evening.

Widespread SCA level w to nw winds are nearly certain across the
outer waters and northern inner waters Sat night and Sun morning,
and likely across the inner waters. There is a good chance that
winds will reach gale force across much of the waters Sun afternoon
thru Sun night, so a Gale Watch has been issued. Winds will likely
remain at SCA levels across the outer waters Mon thru Wed, and likely
Mon into Mon night across the inner waters. Seas will be large and
dangerous across most of the waters Sat night thru at least Mon.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for zones
      34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to
      6 AM PST Monday for zones 53-54. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday
      evening for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Sunday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late
      Sunday night for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to noon
      PST Sunday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(MON-FRI)
Gusty north winds are likely on Monday and Friday.

&&

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...STU

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