High Surf Advisory 9, NWS Los Angeles, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
149 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY BUT
THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

TODAY BEGINS A LONG STRETCH OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY < 30 MPH)
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROF APPROACHES TONIGHT AND BRINGS
NOTHING BUT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE
LAX-DAG GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO JUMP TO AT LEAST 6 MB OFFSHORE
WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO GENERATE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL
SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
ABOVE NORMAL FRI/SAT WITH THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE CHILLY BUT THOSE TOO
WILL BE TRENDING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

AFTER THE LAST LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REALLY TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE WEST
COAST, PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT IS IDEAL FOR A
WARNING LEVEL EVENT BUT CAN'T RULE THAT OUT. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH 80S STARTING TO POP UP
SUNDAY AND MID TO HIGH 80S POSSIBLE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES START TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENOUGH TO PROBABLY DROP WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT LOW
LVL TEMPS ARE THE SAME OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER WED SO PROBABLY
LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.AVIATION...

03/1800Z.

AT 1800Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP ALL SITES IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE USUAL SITES
(KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF) AT TIMES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS AT AIRFIELD IN THE MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 KNOTS OR BELOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z FORECAST AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

03/900 AM...

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST FREE OF ADVISORIES UNTIL MID DAY
THURSDAY WHEN A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EACH MORNING FROM
FRIDAY ON THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS AND ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...HOXSIE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
947 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-041400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
947 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MW