High Surf Advisory 16, NWS Los Angeles, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
205 PM PST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY IN HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-FRI)

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE COME UP A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE THE
FORECAST WHILE OTHERS A FEW DEGREES BELOW. OVERALL A GOOD JOB
DECIPHERING HOW MUCH THE RELATIVELY COLD AIRMASS WOULD BE WARMED.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHED BY LATE MORNING BUT REMAINED
ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND PRIME SUNDOWNER
PASSES AND CANYONS IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ALREADY GETTING
REPORTS OF MINOR BUT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY TIGHTENING AND WITH THE SBA-SMX GRADIENT A
BIT STRONGER TONIGHT AND THE SBA- BFL GRADIENT MORE NOTABLY
STRONGER TONIGHT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE
MOUNTAINS... SBA SOUTH COAST... AND THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

ONCE THE WINDS DIMINISH... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL
BE A BIT WARMER BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY. SUNNY/CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEND A HAND TO NIPPY MORNING TEMPERATURES BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL OR A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TRANSITION DAY IN SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDS HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LOW CENTER WILL DIP PRIOR TO CROSSING INTO THE STATE AND THAT
DOES PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN THE PRECIPITATION VALUES TO BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT A STRONG ENOUGH TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION AND THAT WILL HELP TO BRING IN AT LEAST A
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE FORECAST PACKAGE CURRENTLY HAS THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND THAT IS MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER THIS
COULD BE ANOTHER EVENT IN WHICH LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
RECEIVE A BIT MORE RAINFALL IN THE BUCKET THAN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE PW-S ARE MARGINAL THOUGH AND OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE
A QUICK MOVER AND WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...
LINGERING LONGEST IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE A FEW WIGGLES IN THE PATTERN BEHIND THIS EVENT AND WITH
A LITTLE MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE EXITING EVENT THERE COULD
BE A FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AND DAYTIME
TEMPS A BIT COOLER BUT IN GENERAL AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO COME OF
IT.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1800Z.

AT 1746Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT AT KPRB WHERE DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NLY CROSS WINDS
WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF NLY WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...08/200 PM.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN MANY AREAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GALE WARNING FOR ZONE 650 HAS BEEN CHANGED TO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
ZONES 673 AND 676. THE GALE WARNINGS WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED THIS
EVENING FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE CANCELLATIONS AS THE WINDS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONE
655 IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...08/900 AM.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST HIGH TIDE TO OCCUR DURING THE PEAK OF THE CURRENT HIGH
SURF WARNING. THE LARGE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AT NOON AND WILL BE REPLACED
WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35-40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONE 39. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 645-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
      650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
      673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
BEACHES...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO/KJ

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES