Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Chicago, IL

468 
WGUS73 KLOT 300001
FFSLOT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
701 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

ILC201-300415-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-160830T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINNEBAGO IL-
701 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR
EASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY...

AT 658 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD
PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA HAD DISSIPATED. THE RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT UP TO ONE AND A HALF TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ROCKFORD...LOVES PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD AIRPORT...ROSCOE...
CHERRY VALLEY...DAVIS JUNCTION AND NEW MILLFORD.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 4238 8894 4215 8894 4215 8917 4220 8917
      4221 8918 4223 8918 4241 8928 4246 8921

$$

RC

350 
WGUS73 KLOT 300110
FFSLOT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
810 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

ILC201-300119-
/O.CAN.KLOT.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-160830T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINNEBAGO IL-
810 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

FLOOD WATERS ARE RECEDING...AND ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD
CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 4238 8894 4215 8894 4215 8917 4220 8917
      4221 8918 4223 8918 4241 8928 4246 8921

$$

RATZER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
256 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
234 PM CDT

Through Tonight...

Very slow moving thunderstorms continue to develop over portions
of the area this afternoon. As a this writing, the most pronounced
heavy rain producer is the cluster of storms over Lee county.
These storms have been dropping up to 2" per hour over a small
portion of the county south of the Dixon area. While the
individual storm cells are moving slowly eastward, the cluster of
storms is propagating slowly north-northwestward into the Dixon
area as new development occurs along the outflow. If this heavy
rain continues into the Dixon area a flash flood warning may be
needed in the near future. Otherwise, expect SCT thunderstorms to
continue to develop and impact portions of the area for the next
few hours before dissipating by early this evening. The slow
eastward movement of these storms could result in some isolated
areas of flash flooding due to very heavy rainfall.

Some isolated storms are possible over the area tonight, but most
areas will likely remain dry. The high dew point air mass and the
expectation of light winds tonight could allow for some areas of
dense fog to develop. As a result, I have added patchy fog to the
forecast for tonight.

KJB

&&

.LONG TERM...
250 PM CDT

Tuesday through Monday...

Tuesday will again be like the past few with a humid, deep
moisture air mass in place. The stout upper high with 593dm
heights over central Illinois today will begin to be shunted
slowly southward as a northern stream trough begins to dig into
Ontario. Minor mid-level ripples on water vapor satellite imagery
over Iowa today will likely be moving over northern Illinois
Tuesday morning and could support isolated/scattered storms in the
a.m. hours. In addition, at the low-levels there will be a tad
more southwesterly to westerly flow ensuring dew points remain
high and once again pooled in the mid 70s by midday. So would
expect at least scattered storms, potentially with more coverage
than today. Guidance is indicating a decent amount of morning
cloud cover which may slow destabilization, though it still should
be still achieved given the moisture pooling. Deep layer shear is
likely to be 15-20 kt keeping the concerns mainly tied to flooding
with efficient rates and slow storm motions. The occasional wet
microburst, especially any congealed deep cells, will be possible.

As a cold front associated with the aforementioned trough moves
southward over Lake Michigan on Tuesday night, the chance for
scattered storms should continue into the night. In addition,
upper forcing within a right entrance region of an upper jet will
also support at least broad lift. Besides the rain chances, Tuesday
night looks to remain humid and mild.

On Wednesday morning the cold front should be shifting southward
into the area and by Wednesday afternoon clearing the south. The
front will continue to serve as a focus for storms, though it is
looking more likely Wednesday afternoon much of that may be in
central Illinois and central Indiana. Reinforcement of drier air
will occur later in the day into the night. Winds along the lake
front will be the strongest, with gusts of 25 to possibly 30 mph
by Wednesday evening. Waves will build to levels conducive for rip
currents by mid-late afternoon Wednesday based on the current
forecast, with the threat continuing through Thursday.

Thursday will see highs in the lower to mid 70s as high pressure
advances in. There actually could be some lake effect clouds into
northeast Illinois Thursday morning. Pleasant conditions look to
persist through the weekend with a rex block in the middle of the
continent likely to keep the next precipitation chances not until
Monday.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs...

The main weather concerns/challenges will be the extent of
thunderstorms over or near the terminals this afternoon and again
on Tuesday afternoon.

A warm and humid air mass will remain in place over the area
through Tuesday. Recent AMDAR soundings out of MDW indicate that
thunderstorm development could begin initiation at any time. The
main question remains where will thunderstorms focus this
afternoon. At this time, it appears that low-level convergence
along a developing lake breeze boundary may help act as a focus
for SCT storms over or near some of the Chicago area terminals
after 19 Z. As a result, I have opted to add a VCTS mention from
19 to 22 Z this afternoon. However, overall confidence on coverage
remains a bit on the low side.

The next main threat for storms looks to arrive by Tuesday
afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. Given the range,
it is a bit difficult to pinpoint the best timing at ORD for
thunder. So, at this time I have just gone with a long (6hr)
PROB30 mention for such until a shorter time range can be
established.

In addition to the threat for storms, some fog will be possible
later tonight, especially outside the Chicago area. The extent of
the fog will likely depend on the amount of cloud cover around
tonight, but given the high dew point air, some MVFR to IFR
visibilities are certainly possible late tonight.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
256 PM CDT

Quiet winds and waves will occur over the lake tonight into
Tuesday, outside of possibly patchy fog late tonight and Tuesday
morning. A cold front will shift southward onto the northern part
of the lake by Tuesday evening and then down the lake through the
remainder of the night. This will abruptly turn winds northerly
with an increase in speed. Gusts to 30 kt are possible by
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night, especially across the
central and south. Small craft advisory conditions are presently
forecast Wednesday evening through Thursday night across the
Illinois and Indiana nearshore zones.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
405 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
302115-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
405 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 /505 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.

PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN
FLOOD. PORTIONS OF OTHER AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY BE NEAR
BANKFULL.

DISCUSSION:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY
SUNSET. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ALL
STORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM RISK.
  HIGH SWIM RISK.
THURSDAY...
  HIGH SWIM RISK.
SUNDAY...
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

MOVING TO THE EAST AT 5 MPH.

&&

LMZ740>745-302115-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
405 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS AND WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-302115-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
405 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY.

&&

MTF

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
332 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLOOD            STREAMWOOD              42.02N 88.17W
08/29/2016                   COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL STREETS WITH A FEW INCHES OF WATER COVERING THE
            ROAD...MOST SIGNIFICANT ALONG PARK BOULEVARD. UP TO 6
            INCHES ON ONE INTERSECTION.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
335 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 S DIXON              41.70N 89.48W
08/29/2016                   LEE                IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A FOOT OF WATER MOVING ACROSS
            PUMP FACTORY ROAD BETWEEN AMBOY ROAD AND MCCOY ROAD 10
            MILES SOUTH OF DIXON.

&&

JEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
355 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW ELK GROVE VILLAGE 41.99N 88.03W
08/29/2016  M2.05 INCH       COOK               IL   COCORAHS

            2.05 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. MINOR CURB
            SIDE FLOODING WAS ALSO OBSERVED.

&&

JEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
522 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE PLAINFIELD        41.59N 88.19W
08/29/2016  M1.01 INCH       WILL               IL   COCORAHS

            1.01 INCHES IN 25 MINUTES. MINOR FLOODING ALSO OBSERVED.

&&

JEE