Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Mid-level low continues to push to the east, and is now east of SDF.
As expected, scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed
given increased diurnal instability and low- and mid-level forcing.
Storms initially formed in two main areas - just to the north and
west of the low in a deformation zone type axis, and to the south
and east of the low in central KY where broken bands of scattered
storms rotated northeastward. Storm development is now highly linked
to the intersection of many outflow boundaries, which show up great
on the NWS Doppler radar. These boundaries are moving away in
concentric circles from their parent storms. Where these boundaries
intersect, strong convection with torrential rainfall is occurring.
Low-level outflow winds from these storms are up to 30-40 mph in
some areas. Overall, localized flooding will continue as the main
hazard due to high rainfall rates and slow movement, along with CG
lightning strikes.

As the low pulls east late this evening and with the loss of diurnal
heating, storms will gradually wane and push eastward. Skies will
clear over western parts of the forecast area later tonight, with
partly cloudy east and a continued slight chance of showers
overnight. With residual low-level moisture, expect patchy or areas
of fog overnight, especially where heavy rain falls this afternoon
and in river valleys.

On Friday, our forecast area should be in-between weather systems.
The first system will be existing to our east, although enough
residual moisture and instability could still lead to isolated or
scattered convective cells over parts of the eastern Bluegrass. The
rest of our area should be dry with a partly to mostly sunny sky and
hot conditions. Max temps Friday afternoon will be in the lower 90s
over the west half of the area (upper 80s/around 90 east) with max
afternoon heat indices around 100 over the west half. In advance of
the next system, there could be isolated thunderstorms over parts of
south-central IN late Friday.

For Friday night and Saturday, a robust upper jet streak will
propagate eastward across the Great Lakes states. At the surface, a
cold front will push southeast across the Ohio Valley reaching
around the Ohio River by 12z Saturday. The best chance for storms
will be to our north Friday afternoon and evening, where SPC has a
marginal risk of severe. By the time storms reach our area Friday
night, diurnal heating and surface-based instability will be slowly
diminishing, although scattered showers and some thunderstorms are
still expected overnight as activity moves southeastward into our
area. During the day Saturday, storms may redevelop along the front
and/or outflow boundaries ahead of it, with the best chance over
south-central KY.

The front should clear our forecast area to the south, resulting in
dry weather Saturday night, with less humid air moving in from the
north courtesy of high pressure at the surface.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Upper ridge looks to be centered in the vicinity of Arkansas Sunday
morning. Our flow aloft will be from the northwest in this system,
but despite this pattern, QPF is dry through Monday, as precipitable
water (PW) is low. Would not be surprised to see models try and come
up with a system dropping through the flow, but for now will keep
the forecast dry. PWs come up quickly Tuesday and stay up through
Thursday. Problem is in the GFS/Euro they place a lobe of the ridge
right over us Wednesday, which would suppress convection. As such
will keep the lower end chance and slight chance pops that our
blended initialization gave. Will come up a little more for
Thursday, with the plentiful PW and the ridge suppressed a little
more to the south. Temperatures should not stray too far from
seasonal norms, but look to be warmest Tue/Wed.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Associated with a mid-level low over the area, numerous thunder-
storms have developed over parts of central KY and south-central IN
at this time. Little overall storm organization is expected but
cells will be in the vicinity of all TAF sites for this afternoon.
The chance for storms should end by late afternoon at BWG. Overall,
clouds and vsbys will remain VFR outside of storms, but temporarily
go MVFR or even IFR in very heavy rain with any storms that hit the
site. Storms will diminish areawide later this evening.

Overnight, it will remain dry at the 3 sites (except slight chance
of a shower at LEX). However, residual low-level moisture, light
wind, and some clearing should lead to at least MVFR fog at all 3
sites, with a chance of IFR vsbys at BWG and LEX (but will maintain
MVFR for now). During the day Friday, conditions will again become
and remain VFR.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........TWF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1107 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-051515-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1107 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 /1007 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND A FEW MAY PRODUCE BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODED ROADWAYS...AS WELL
AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF AVAILABLE.

TWF/RAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
227 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

INZ090-041900-
HARRISON-
227 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 227 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CORYDON...MOVING VERY LITTLE WHATSOEVER.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORYDON...LANESVILLE...ELIZABETH...NEW MIDDLETOWN...LACONIA...
CENTRAL...LOTTICK CORNER...DOGWOOD...SEVEN SPRINGS AND BRECKENRIDGE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3825 8596 3819 8596 3819 8594 3803 8592
      3803 8618 3827 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 115DEG 12KT 3816 8610

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

KYZ029-030-041945-
JEFFERSON-BULLITT-
314 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN BULLITT COUNTIES...

AT 314 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HIGHVIEW...
DRIFTING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOUISVILLE...JEFFERSONTOWN...SHEPHERDSVILLE...PIONEER VILLAGE...
AUDUBON PARK...WEST BUECHEL...WATTERSON PARK...LYNNVIEW...
HOLLOW CREEK AND PARKWAY VILLAGE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3804 8550 3803 8550 3803 8551 3801 8572
      3821 8577 3821 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 161DEG 34KT 3810 8565

JDG/RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

KYZ034-038-039-042000-
SHELBY-SPENCER-ANDERSON-
327 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SPENCER...SOUTHERN
SHELBY AND NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES...

AT 326 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TAYLORSVILLE.
THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAYLORSVILLE...HARRISONVILLE...JUNTE...WATERFORD...GEE...
MOUNT EDEN...RIVALS...ELK CREEK...YODER AND WAYSIDE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3812 8504 3797 8508 3804 8546 3819 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 000DEG 0KT 3809 8538

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

KYZ070-072-042015-
SIMPSON-LOGAN-
241 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON AND CENTRAL
LOGAN COUNTIES...

AT 240 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RUSSELLVILLE... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSSELLVILLE...AUBURN...EPLEYS...SPA...COOPERSTOWN...SCHOCHOH...
MIDDLETON...JUSTICE...OAKVILLE AND DENNIS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3700 8705 3685 8668 3668 8674 3681 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 305DEG 11KT 3681 8691

JDG

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