Alert archive / Kentucky / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

July 22, 2016Warren County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this special weather statement at Jul 22, 2016, 3:03 PM CDT for Warren County, Kentucky. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 22, 2016, 3:03 PM CDT (20:03 UTC)
Expired
Jul 22, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT
In force
27 min
Issued by
NWS Louisville, KY

County Warren County, KY

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-07-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 678 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-07-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -2 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
678 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-64 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1162 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 22, 1:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 22, 1:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

...Hot, Humid, and Unsettled Weather for the Weekend...

Models have a little better handle on the initialization today when
compared to this time yesterday, but not by much. Cloud cover has
helped to short circuit much of today's heat, though breaks by mid
to late afternoon may yet boost heat indices up to around 100,
perhaps higher depending on the length of heating remaining. SDF,
under cloud cover all morning and early afternoon, still has made it
to 89...so any sunshine should boost us at least into the lower
90s. Storms the rest of this afternoon are possible in the
hottest areas now, over southern KY as well as our Bluegrass
counties. Later development could be along differential heating
boundaries in the north, where those breaks of sunshine allow
temperatures to rise faster.

Coverage should die down by late evening, given loss of heating. QPF
fields are arguing for drier conditions tomorrow, bringing a promise
of hotter temperatures. The main reason for the lack of convection
would be a lack of boundaries in the region. Precipitable waters
should be in the 1.7-1.9 inch range. The flow aloft by Saturday
would argue against us getting another system from the north, with
the flow a little more zonal (and weaker). So a continued heat
advisory looks good.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Sunday's forecast has trended drier with a ridge axis right over the
region, extending in from the west. With that dryness would mean
another day of hot temperatures. Not certain I want to fall for the
dry forecast completely, given this is the first set of model runs
showing this change. We could extend the Heat Advisory another day,
but given it's only an advisory, would prefer to wait and make sure
this trend continues before pulling that trigger.

Monday still looks to have better rain chances, as a trough comes in
and forces the ridge back to the west and south. Timing of storm
development looks to be later in the day though, so heat may still
be a problem initially. I would imagine if the Heat Advisory is
extended by this time tomorrow, it would run through Monday.

As for Tuesday on, guidance has trended back to a slower push for
Monday's front, now leaving the moisture in the region the rest of
the week. Have gone a little under the SuperBlend guidance here,
again as this is the start of a trend in that forecast. Temperatures
should moderate both because of the better rain chances and because
of the lower thicknesses with the ridge forecast to stay west of
here.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Main TAF challenge will be convective trends through the afternoon
hours.  Quite a bit of mid/high clouds are plaguing the region and
limiting instability, but think LEX/BWG will still have a chance to
see some convection (VCTS) develop this afternoon.  Will leave just
VCSH wording in at SDF.

Any convection will wane this evening, leaving a dry night.  Some
light fog will once again be possible at all sites, particularly LEX
and BWG.  Saturday will feature diurnal cu developing once again
with a few passing mid/high clouds and generally light southerly
winds.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for KYZ023>034-
     038-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>077-081.

IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for INZ076>079-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........KJD
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 22, 2:02 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>034-038-045-046-053-054-061>065-
070>077-081-231915-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-SPENCER-NELSON-LARUE-MARION-BUTLER-
EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-
METCALFE-ADAIR-CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...BURKESVILLE
302 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 /202 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO LATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND 100 DEGREES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO THE
102 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON... POSSIBLY REACHING
THESE LEVELS AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TAKE NECESSARY SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
LOOKS TO BE AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
ANY STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

KYZ035>037-039>043-047>049-055>057-066-067-078-082-231915-
FRANKLIN-SCOTT-HARRISON-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-
MERCER-JESSAMINE-CLARK-BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-CASEY-LINCOLN-RUSSELL-
CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...LIBERTY...STANFORD...JAMESTOWN...ALBANY
302 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 /202 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES
ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY TO MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
LOOKS TO BE AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
ANY STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

RJS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 22, 2:34 PM CDT, 29 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
234 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

KYZ070-222000-
LOGAN-
234 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY...

AT 234 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RUSSELLVILLE... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSSELLVILLE...CAVE SPRINGS AND OAKVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3683 8701 3689 8696 3682 8675 3673 8691
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 309DEG 4KT 3683 8694

KJD
Special weather statement, Jul 22, 2:59 PM CDT, 4 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 22, 3:03 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 22, 2:34 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKLogan26 min
Jul 22, 2:59 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKLogan16 min
Jul 22, 3:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKNicholas10 min
Jul 22, 3:30 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKWarren15 min
Jul 22, 3:45 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKAllen15 min
Jul 22, 4:11 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKBarren3 hr
Jul 22, 4:25 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKBarren, Metcalfe3 hr
Jul 22, 4:46 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKClark29 min
Jul 22, 5:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKBoyle25 min
Jul 22, 5:34 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKBoyle, Lincoln116 min
Jul 22, 5:47 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKBoyle28 min
Jul 22, 5:51 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKMeade24 min
Jul 22, 5:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKCasey, Lincoln36 min
Jul 22, 6:02 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKMeade28 min
Jul 22, 6:27 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKMeade2 hr
Jul 22, 6:34 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKHardin26 min
Jul 22, 6:32 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKDubois, Orange43 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kentucky, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.