Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
318 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2016

In the near term, a slow moving frontal boundary will continue to
sink southward across the region this afternoon.  The front will
likely make it to the Ohio River this evening and then start to
cross the state overnight and end up in Tennessee tomorrow
afternoon.  The boundary will serve as a focus for convective
development this afternoon and evening.

The afternoon mesoscale analysis shows continued atmospheric
destabilization across the region.  Afternoon surface temps in the
upper 80s to around 90 combined with lower 70 dewpoints results in
MLCAPE values around 2000 J/Kg.  CINH has pretty much abated as the
lower levels have warmed a bit more.  Late morning ACARS soundings
out of KSDF had a temperature inversion around 600-550mb which
effectively acted as a cap.  Convergence along the front is weak,
but is substantial enough to generate convection given recent
upticks in radar reflectivity in the last 30 minutes.

We expect convection to continue to develop over the next several
hours as the boundary sinks south.  The highest concentration will
be across southern IN and then into northern portions of Kentucky
later this afternoon and evening.  Convection strength will be
strong to locally severe in spots.  Projected DCAPE values in the
1200-1500 J/Kg range certainly argue that strong gusty winds will be
the main weather hazard.  Thermodynamic and kinematic profiles do
suggest that convective cores could reach substantial heights to
produce marginally severe hail.  Overall moisture content is not as
high as in the past few days, but nonetheless, any storm will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall this afternoon/evening.

Convection will diminish this evening as surface instability wanes
with the loss of heating.  We do plan on keeping iso/sct storm
chances in across the south early this evening and then let them
fade away overnight.  Lows tonight look to cool into the upper 60s
across the north with upper 60s to around 70 across the central and
southern areas.

For Saturday/Saturday night, surface frontal boundary is forecast to
be located south of the state.  So, dry and warm conditions are
expected across much of the region.  With the frontal boundary in
close proximity to our southern counties, a few isolated
showers/storms may be possible across far southern KY Saturday
afternoon.  High temperatures look to warm into the 84-88 degree
range across the north with 85-90 across the central and southern
sections.  Lows Saturday night will drop into the 65-70 degree
range.  A few lower 60s readings are possible across our far
northern counties of southern Indiana.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2016

In the long term period, the synoptic pattern will undergo a change
with a zonal pattern transitioning to a more amplified pattern.  The
dominating theme through the period will be the development of a
large H5 ridge over the Mid-MS valley which will then expand and
retrograde to the west during the week.

Early in the forecast period, we'll have to be on guard for MCS
development.  Consensus model guidance over the last few days has
been consistently signaling upstream MCS development over the
northern Plains/Midwest Sunday night.  This activity will likely
slide to the east-southeast as the ridge axis builds and shifts
westward and away from our area.  It is possible that the MCS may
pass to the north of the region, but residual outflow from the
system could spread southward resulting in renewed convective
development Monday and into Monday night.

By Tuesday, the ridge axis will be centered well to our west and
northwesterly flow will dominate the Ohio Valley.  This will likely
send a cool front southward.  As this occurs, another mid-level
perturbation will slide down the within the mean flow resulting in
more convective possibilities for Tuesday/Tuesday night.

We may see a brief break around midweek as we'll remain in a
northwesterly flow, but there may be a bit of a gap in the series of
disturbances riding around the ridge axis.  There remains a signal
that another perturbation may crest the ridge Wednesday night and
then drop into the Ohio Valley by Thursday.  Timing of these
features at this time range are exceptionally poor by the global
models, so we'll have time to watch this pattern evolve over the
next few days.  The multi-model consensus then attempts to expand
the ridge further east as we head into next weekend.  The confidence
in this idea is fairly low given the fact that we've seen the models
attempt these solutions in the past with rather poor verification.
Given the overall teleconnection patterns and other organic
forecasting methods, it is more probable that we'll see the ridge
axis remain further west while the Ohio Valley remains in more of a
NW flow with a continued threat of MCS activity.

Temperatures through the period look to remain near seasonal normals
with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s and overnight lows in
the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  Overall ensemble guidance is
similar with not much spread in the guidance.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2016

Scattered cu is starting to develop early this afternoon and will
become more widespread over the next few hours. A cold front will
move into north central Kentucky this afternoon and sink through
south central KY this evening. Scattered storms are expected to
develop in the vicinity of this front this afternoon. The best
chances for storms will be at SDF this afternoon. Guidance is
trending towards a better chance for storms at LEX, so have
introduced VCTS there. Much of the guidance suggests the storms will
fall apart before they get to BWG, so will continue to carry only
VCSH for now.

These storms are expected to move out by this evening. Overnight
some light fog will be possible, particularly at BWG and possibly
LEX. Winds will be generally light out of the northwest to north
outside of any thunderstorms.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-162000-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 /247 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
THESE STORMS WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.

MJ

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