Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
746 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Will be updating the forecast to include higher chances for
thunderstorms (heavy rainfall) across southern KY. Convective
complex is now accelerating across southern KY, with developing
storms out ahead of it. Will be concerned about damaging winds and
additional heavy rainfall/flash flooding through this evening. Will
leave Flash Flood Watch as is and be quick on the trigger with Flash
Flood Warnings given FFG values between 1-2 inches.

Severe storm over southern IN should stay limited in coverage and
begin to weaken as it encounters a less favorable airmass.

Issued at 536 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Let Severe Thunderstorm Watch #355 go. The severe threat has ended
for the time being. Main focus this evening will be on any
additional thunderstorm chances ahead of the approaching cold front,
and MCS over Missouri bootheel. At this point, think any additional
thunderstorms will be isolated to widely scattered in nature due to
the lack of trigger and subsidence behind the departing 500 mb
shortwave. The atmosphere remains unstable ahead of the approaching
cold front; so can't rule out 20-30 percent chance of additional
thunderstorms this evening if front is able to be enough of a
trigger.

Will leave the Flash Flood Watch going for a little bit longer to
account for developing MCS across the MO bootheel. However, feel the
complex will track mainly E/SE into western and central Tennessee.
Main reason for this is because 850-300 mb mean winds should steer
it that direction. Will let the Flash Flood Watch go when confidence
is higher that another round of storm won't move through.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Cold front advancing from the northwest may still spark scattered
thunderstorms behind the current activity moving into eastern
Kentucky. Subsidence behind those storms and gradual loss of heating
into this evening should keep storms from becoming widespread. Also,
will have to watch complex moving east across southern Missouri this
afternoon. 850-300 flow would take this complex to the east, more
towards northern Tennessee or the KY/TN border area (which is
supported by the HRRR). So, will keep at least scattered PoPs in the
forecast for several more hours. Will make last minute decision
depending on how things look at issuance time.

Saturday and Saturday night look nice as high pressure noses in from
the north behind tonight's cold front. High temperatures on Saturday
will be in the 80s with dew points in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Though upper ridging will try to build in this week, a weakness in
the ridge overhead Sunday-Monday may help foster thunderstorm
activity (especially Monday).

For the rest of the week we'll be on the edge of the ridge with
occasional disturbances moving through the zonal flow. This will
result in a forecast of daily scattered thunderstorm chances.

Temperatures will be about normal for mid-July.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Main TAF concern will be lingering convection this evening and the
potential for some light fog/stratus early Saturday morning.  A weak
surface front has pushed into portions of southern IN.  A few
thunderstorms have developed along this boundary, but these are not
expected to make it into SDF given the earlier rains.  An
additional complex of thunderstorms has developed over southeastern
MO, which will track across TN.  A few of these storms may attempt
to make it into BWG later this evening, thus will continue with VCTS
wording.

Later tonight, some fog and/or stratus will be possible mainly at
BWG/LEX.  Will favor more stratus at BWG where a thick cirrus shield
should help keep low-levels mixed a bit.  Will go with light fog at
LEX given a thinner cirrus deck and the heavier rains that fell
earlier today.  This will quickly mix out Saturday morning, leaving
just a few diurnal cu and passing upper-level clouds.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     KYZ024-026>028-045>048-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........BJS/INS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......13
Aviation.......KJD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
542 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-025-029>043-049-092145-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-MEADE-BULLITT-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-
FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...BRANDENBURG...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...WINCHESTER
542 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 /442 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...DAMAGE...AS WELL
AS FLOODED ROADWAYS FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS.

KYZ024-026>028-045>048-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-092145-
BRECKINRIDGE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-NELSON-WASHINGTON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-
LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-
CASEY-LINCOLN-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-
ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARDINSBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...
ELIZABETHTOWN...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
542 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 /442 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. DUE
TO RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...DAMAGE...AS WELL
AS FLOODED ROADWAYS FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS.

BJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
756 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

INZ090-KYZ025-030-090030-
HARRISON-JEFFERSON-MEADE-
756 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HARRISON...WEST CENTRAL
JEFFERSON AND CENTRAL MEADE COUNTIES...

AT 756 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CAREFREE TOWN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORYDON...VALLEY STATION...PLEASURE RIDGE PARK...ELIZABETH...NEW
MIDDLETOWN...LACONIA...NEW AMSTERDAM...CENTRAL...EVANS LANDING AND
DOGWOOD.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3811 8583 3800 8597 3800 8600 3798 8600
      3795 8604 3813 8633 3814 8632 3815 8633
      3827 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 309DEG 29KT 3821 8626

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
843 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DEPAUW                  38.34N 86.22W
07/08/2016                   HARRISON           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN, TRANSFORMERS BLOWN.

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
846 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

INZ084-090-KYZ025-090115-
CRAWFORD-HARRISON-MEADE-
846 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN
CRAWFORD AND NORTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTIES...

AT 846 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CAREFREE TOWN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRANDENBURG...CAREFREE TOWN...LEAVENWORTH...ELIZABETH...NEW MIDDLETOWN...
MAUCKPORT...LACONIA...NEW AMSTERDAM...CENTRAL AND CAPE SANDY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3818 8642 3825 8636 3814 8592 3795 8613
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 299DEG 35KT 3819 8635

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
920 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

INZ090-090145-
HARRISON-
920 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 920 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CORYDON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELIZABETH...NEW MIDDLETOWN...LACONIA...NEW AMSTERDAM...CENTRAL...DOGWOOD...
VALLEY CITY...GLIDAS AND SEVEN SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3820 8628 3816 8595 3799 8606 3810 8628
      3814 8627 3816 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 291DEG 23KT 3813 8624

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
942 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N RUSSELLVILLE        36.85N 86.89W
07/08/2016                   LOGAN              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

MRC

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