Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
226 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2016

As of mid afternoon, a surface analysis showed high pressure
centered over Lake Michigan with a frontal boundary dropping south
across south-central Illinois, southern Indiana, and southwest Ohio.
Ahead of it across central Kentucky and southern Indiana,
temperatures have warmed into the low 90s with dewpoints running in
the mid 60s to low 70s in places. This is pushing heat indices into
the mid to upper 90 range.

The environment is characterized by MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg
along and just ahead of the front while effective shear is very weak
and less than 20 knots. Visible satellite shows a couple lines of
enhanced cumulus clouds while regional radar mosaic is beginning to
show a few cells sparking across southern Indiana into southwest
Ohio. Some of the storms this evening could be strong to locally
severe with damaging winds the primary threat.

Some of the deterministic 12z guidance continued their bias for too
high of dewpoints which is likely causing the models to over
convect. The hi-res models are handling the slightly lower dewpoints
better and show considerable less coverage of storms through this
evening. While isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are still
possible across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, the bulk of
the area will likely stay dry. As a result, precipitation chances
were nudged down some through this evening. Otherwise, plan on a
warm and muggy evening.

The front will push through central Kentucky during the overnight as
high pressure continues to nose down from the north. Look for lows
in the 60s to near 70, warmest across the southwest forecast area.

The front will make enough southward and southwestward progress to
provide the region with cooler air on Monday, lower dewpoints and a
dry forecast. Look for highs to top out in the low/mid 80s across
the Bluegrass to near 90 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2016

The main highlights in the long term are unsettled weather for mid-
week but then drying out for late in the work week and next weekend.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the aforementioned surface front will
lift back through the area as a warm front, bringing a return to
higher PWATs and dewpoints. Despite the surface front being the
focus for showers and storms across the area, the lack of a strong
upper level forcing mechanism will keep storm organization low. Look
for a continuation of the warm days with highs right around 90 and a
return to muggy mornings with lows around 70. The highest
precipitation chances come on Wednesday when a shortwave trough
passes the area to the north.

12.12z guidance followed the 12.00z trend of showing the upper level
shortwave pivoting quickly through the area late in the work week
and becoming cut off over the Carolina coast, instead of the lower
Ohio Valley as previously advertised. This could make for a much
drier forecast Thursday onward and the model consensus precipitation
chances reflect that trend well. Temperatures as well look to return
to more seasonal levels with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the
mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Main question at hand is the potential for convection along the
backdoor cold front currently diving southward across Indiana.
Expect this boundary to drop into Kentucky this evening, but fairly
modest amounts of available deep moisture, and the disconnect
between the wind shift and the surface dewpoint gradient, are
starting to weigh against T-storm development. Certainly can't rule
out a stray thunderstorm between roughly 21Z and 03Z Monday, but not
enough confidence that it would affect SDF or LEX, so won't include
it in either TAF. Otherwise VFR with scattered cu into the evening.

Surface high over the Great Lakes and northerly component in the
flow aloft are looking strong enough to push the boundary clear
through Kentucky tonight. BWG will be the last to get it, and it
will be weakening, so expect enough moisture pooling to support MVFR
fog for several hrs overnight into Monday morning.

Will go clear by mid-morning with 7-10 kt easterly winds as the
drier low-level air mass noses into the area Monday.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
232 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016

KYZ026-027-061>064-070>078-081-082-131845-
OHIO-GRAYSON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-
BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...
TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...
ALBANY
132 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-
065>067-131845-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-HARDIN-BULLITT-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-
HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-FAYETTE-BOURBON-
NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-
TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...ELIZABETHTOWN...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...
LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...
VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD
232 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 /132 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDICES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE IN THE MID 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

ZT

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