Alert archive / Kentucky / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

June 4, 2016Adair County, Clinton County, Russell County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this special weather statement at Jun 4, 2016, 12:13 PM CDT for Adair County, Clinton County, Russell County, Kentucky. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 4, 2016, 12:13 PM CDT (17:13 UTC)
Expired: Jun 4, 2016, 1:00 PM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY

Counties Adair County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Russell County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 496 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -74 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 989 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 74 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 89 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 4, 12:09 PM CDT, 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 4, 12:09 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
109 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1038 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2016

Made some slight adjustments to the near term PoP/Wx grids to
account for current radar trends.  Axis of earlier convection has
pushed northeast of the Bluegrass region while dumping 1-2 inches of
rainfall.  Secondary axis of showers is currently moving in from the
southwest and will affect areas, mainly west of I-65 this morning
into the early afternoon hours.

As we move into the afternoon hours, convection is expected to ramp
back up.  Early morning model data suggests that our SE/E areas
would destabilize first given more insolation due to lesser cloud
cover.  This appears to be on track this morning given the recent
sat trends showing mostly sunny skies east of the US27/127 corridor.
By mid-afternoon, mid level jet streak is forecast to develop from TN
into SE Ohio.  With bulk shear values in the 35-45kt range, combined
with about 1000-1500 J/Kg CAPE we will likely see multi-cluster
convection develop.  While wet-bulb levels remain high, current
thinking is that the hail threat would be generally low. The
increase in bulk shear could be enough to have some supercellular
structures.  Given the relatively moist airmass and moist profiles,
precipitation loading seems to be a good bet and pulse type cores
collapsing would result in locally damaging wind threats.  Best time
for severe looks to be between 2-8P Eastern and the area at most
threat would be east of the I-65 corridor.

Speaking of moisture, PW's from area soundings were running in the
1.5 to 1.6 inch range.  Model progs suggest this raising a bit this
afternoon as deeper slug of moisture pools ahead of approaching mid-
level wave.  Earlier convection across Bourbon county looked to drop
1-2 inches of rainfall based on radar and MRMS data.  Calls to the
county resulted in no hydro problems.  However, flash flood guidance
for our region in the 1/3hr range is 2-3 inches.  Given this
morning's convection production of rainfall, localized flooding
issues will be possible this afternoon.  While widespread rainfall
is expected this afternoon/eve, confidence on widespread "heavy"
rainfall remains low.  Will be evaluating convection later this
afternoon and collaborating with surrounding offices on the
possibility of hoisting a Flash Flood Watch should widespread heavy
precipitation develop.

Issued at 615 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2016

Updated near-term precipitation chances based on recent radar trends
and latest HRRR guidance guidance which is performing fairly well.
Through about 8-9 am EDT there should a minimum in rainfall across
central Kentucky and southern Indiana as main axis of showers is now
arched across central IL through central IN and OH. Gradually this
will fill back in as the next wave lifts north out of TN but for the
next few hours chances have been confined to 20 to 30 percent.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 1038 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2016

Made some slight adjustments to the near term PoP/Wx grids to
account for current radar trends.  Axis of earlier convection has
pushed northeast of the Bluegrass region while dumping 1-2 inches of
rainfall.  Secondary axis of showers is currently moving in from the
southwest and will affect areas, mainly west of I-65 this morning
into the early afternoon hours.

As we move into the afternoon hours, convection is expected to ramp
back up.  Early morning model data suggests that our SE/E areas
would destabilize first given more insolation due to lesser cloud
cover.  This appears to be on track this morning given the recent
sat trends showing mostly sunny skies east of the US27/127 corridor.
By mid-afternoon, mid level jet streak is forecast to develop from TN
into SE Ohio.  With bulk shear values in the 35-45kt range, combined
with about 1000-1500 J/Kg CAPE we will likely see multi-cluster
convection develop.  While wet-bulb levels remain high, current
thinking is that the hail threat would be generally low. The
increase in bulk shear could be enough to have some supercellular
structures.  Given the relatively moist airmass and moist profiles,
precipitation loading seems to be a good bet and pulse type cores
collapsing would result in locally damaging wind threats.  Best time
for severe looks to be between 2-8P Eastern and the area at most
threat would be east of the I-65 corridor.

Speaking of moisture, PW's from area soundings were running in the
1.5 to 1.6 inch range.  Model progs suggest this raising a bit this
afternoon as deeper slug of moisture pools ahead of approaching mid-
level wave.  Earlier convection across Bourbon county looked to drop
1-2 inches of rainfall based on radar and MRMS data.  Calls to the
county resulted in no hydro problems.  However, flash flood guidance
for our region in the 1/3hr range is 2-3 inches.  Given this
morning's convection production of rainfall, localized flooding
issues will be possible this afternoon.  While widespread rainfall
is expected this afternoon/eve, confidence on widespread "heavy"
rainfall remains low.  Will be evaluating convection later this
afternoon and collaborating with surrounding offices on the
possibility of hoisting a Flash Flood Watch should widespread heavy
precipitation develop.

Issued at 615 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2016

Updated near-term precipitation chances based on recent radar trends
and latest HRRR guidance guidance which is performing fairly well.
Through about 8-9 am EDT there should a minimum in rainfall across
central Kentucky and southern Indiana as main axis of showers is now
arched across central IL through central IN and OH. Gradually this
will fill back in as the next wave lifts north out of TN but for the
next few hours chances have been confined to 20 to 30 percent.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2016

The first half of next week will be largely influenced by an upper
trough over the Great Lakes and east Coast, which looks to bring the
area less humidity and drier conditions overall. A few embedded
impulses will pivot through the flow on Monday through Tuesday, and
depending on timing during peak heating, could spark a line of
showers or storms across southern Indiana. Otherwise, look for
mainly dry conditions.

Temperatures will average near or slightly below normal for much of
the week. Look for highs in the 70s to low 80s most days and morning
lows a bit more refreshing in the 50s to low 60s, especially by mid-
week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sat Jun 4 2016

Very moist airmass in place for early June, and with heating seeing
storms pop up.  Expect the best window at LEX over the next 2-3
hours, with SDF and BWG running through mid to late afternoon. Storm
chances will continue after that, but the threat for stronger wind
gusts should be limited to the afternoon convection. Brief IFR
conditions are possible in the stronger storms. That rain should
start to taper off late this evening, but then lower cigs will
develop, likely keeping the region IFR to low-end MVFR through mid
morning.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Updates........MJ/ZT
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......RJS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 4, 9:44 AM CDT, 2 hours 29 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1044 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-051445-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1044 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 /944 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PASS ALONG SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

ZBT/MJ

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 4, 7:29 AM CDT, 4 hours 44 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
829 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

KYZ042-043-049-041300-
BOURBON-NICHOLAS-CLARK-
829 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NICHOLAS...SOUTHEASTERN
BOURBON AND NORTH CENTRAL CLARK COUNTIES...

AT 829 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PARIS...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARIS...CARLISLE...NORTH MIDDLETOWN...MYERS...BLACKS CROSSROADS...
JACKSTOWN...PLUM...MOOREFIELD...SPROUT AND LITTLE ROCK.

LAT...LON 3831 8384 3819 8398 3818 8399 3813 8407
      3811 8408 3808 8406 3806 8419 3824 8426
      3837 8392 3836 8391 3836 8389 3835 8390
      3836 8387 3835 8386 3833 8386 3833 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1229Z 251DEG 21KT 3818 8414

RJS

Special weather statement, Jun 4, 11:15 AM CDT, 58 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1215 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

KYZ054-064-065-075>077-081-041700-
METCALF-ADAIR-CUMBERLAND-MONROE-GREEN-MARION-TAYLOR-
1215 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
MARION...SOUTHEASTERN GREEN...EASTERN MONROE...EASTERN METCALFE...
WESTERN ADAIR...WESTERN CUMBERLAND AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 1215 PM EDT/1115 AM CDT/...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAMPBELLSVILLE TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
EDMONTON TO NEAR RED BOILING SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LEBANON...COLUMBIA...TOMPKINSVILLE...GREENSBURG...
EDMONTON...LESLIE...GAMALIEL...SPARKSVILLE AND CEDAR FLATS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LOUISVILLE.

LAT...LON 3662 8578 3682 8572 3743 8545 3758 8534
      3763 8516 3763 8513 3706 8530 3662 8545
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 229DEG 20KT 3739 8541 3686 8567 3648 8579

RJS

Special weather statement, Jun 4, 12:13 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
113 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

KYZ066-077-078-081-082-041800-
ADAIR-CUMBERLAND-RUSSELL-CASEY-CLINTON-
113 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RUSSELL...
SOUTHEASTERN CASEY...CENTRAL CLINTON...SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR AND EAST
CENTRAL CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 113 PM EDT/1213 PM CDT/...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR COLUMBIA TO NEAR JAMESTOWN TO 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...RUSSELL SPRINGS...AARON...MONTPELIER...
ROYVILLE...GARLIN...RHEBER AND DUNNVILLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LOUISVILLE.

LAT...LON 3670 8528 3697 8521 3713 8531 3734 8489
      3718 8480 3712 8490 3709 8491 3705 8491
      3700 8484 3695 8491 3696 8495 3692 8496
      3686 8506 3679 8502 3674 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 248DEG 23KT 3709 8520 3700 8515 3679 8520

RJS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 3, 7:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Allen	30 min
Jun 3, 7:21 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Allen	3 hr
Jun 3, 9:10 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Simpson	3 hr
Jun 4, 7:29 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Bourbon	31 min
Jun 4, 8:24 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Bourbon, Nicholas	3 hr
Jun 4, 11:15 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Marion, Metcalfe, Monroe, Taylor	45 min
Jun 4, 11:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Clinton, Cumberland, Monroe	39 min
Jun 4, 11:38 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Cumberland, Metcalfe, Russell	37 min
Jun 4, 12:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Boyle, Garrard, Lincoln	41 min
Jun 4, 12:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Fayette, Jessamine	46 min
Jun 4, 1:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Garrard, Lincoln	33 min
Jun 4, 1:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Nicholas	48 min
Jun 4, 1:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	LMK	Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bourbon, Boyle and 22 more	8 hr
Jun 4, 2:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Scott, Woodford	25 min
Jun 4, 2:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Clark	33 min
Jun 4, 2:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Harrison	28 min
Jun 4, 2:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Scott	30 min
Jun 4, 2:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Harrison	35 min
Jun 4, 4:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Trimble	52 min
Jun 4, 4:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Hancock	32 min
Jun 4, 4:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Edmonson	25 min
Jun 4, 4:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Meade	36 min
Jun 4, 4:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Hart	31 min
Jun 4, 4:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Henry, Oldham	28 min
Jun 4, 5:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Anderson, Spencer	28 min
Jun 4, 5:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Cumberland, Monroe	36 min
Jun 4, 5:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Anderson, Woodford	35 min
Jun 4, 5:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Scott	40 min
Jun 4, 6:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Fayette, Woodford	46 min
Jun 4, 6:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Harrison	51 min
Jun 4, 3:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Clark	30 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kentucky, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.