Alert archive / Kentucky / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

May 26, 2016Franklin County, Henry County, Shelby County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this special weather statement at May 26, 2016, 2:49 PM EDT for Franklin County, Henry County, Shelby County, Kentucky. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 26, 2016, 2:49 PM EDT (18:49 UTC)
Expired
May 26, 2016, 3:30 PM EDT
In force
41 min
Issued by
NWS Louisville, KY

Counties Franklin County, KY, Henry County, KY, Shelby County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-05-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-05-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 57 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
914 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 26, 12:59 PM EDT, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 26, 12:59 PM EDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1259 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 939 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Lingering showers and isolated storms across the Bluegrass have
slowly dissipated as LLJ begins to weaken and push to the east. A
nice clear slot resides behind it across central Kentucky and
southern Indiana, with southerly flow and dewpoints in the mid 60s.
Further to the west across central Illinois, a line of storms is
steadily moving east.

Extrapolating this line will put it into southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky by early afternoon. Our air mass should be able to
destabilize with dewpoints in the mid 60s and temps in the 80s. The
past few runs of the HRRR have finally latched onto this line and
brings it across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Some of the
other hi-res models have this ideas as well. As a result, increased
POPs quite a bit for parts of the area through the late afternoon.
Will likely need to fine tune or increase POPs further east across
the Bluegrass if this complex holds together across the entire area.

The very weak shear environment will limit severe storms, but
lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds will be a threat.

Issued at 555 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

MCV loitering about south-central Kentucky has triggered showers and
a few isolated T-storms extending north into the Bluegrass region in
the last 2 hrs or so. The bulk of this precip is sliding into
eastern Kentucky already, but we're continuing to see a smattering
of showers re-develop behind it. Also saw a few lighter showers over
southwest Indiana, but those are not holding together well at all.

Grids have been tweaked to better capture hourly trends, and hi-res
products will be updated shortly. No update to the zones as the
overall trend for the next 12 hrs is still pretty much unchanged.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Summertime air mass is now established over the Ohio Valley with
dewpoints into the 60s and precipitable water pushing 1.5 inches.
Upper trof has settled in over the High Plains, with an amplifying
ridge along the East Coast.

This pattern figures to remain fairly stagnant for the next couple
of days, resulting in a continuation of the warm and fairly muggy
conditions that took hold on Wednesday. Even with abundant low-level
moisture, the greatest instability and the favored track for most of
the synoptic-scale upper disturbances will be to our north and west.
Convective potential will be driven largely by whatever
destabilization can occur diurnally, and low-level boundaries that
manage to push in with decaying MCSs from the Plains. Will carry a
20-30 POP with a slight diurnal signal through tonight.

Confidence in model guidance is fairly low, but signs do point to a
dry day on Friday as deep southerly flow may better focus storms
over the Mississippi Valley, leaving us in a relative minimum for
moisture and instability. Will go with a dry forecast for now, but
proceed cautiously. With the dry forecast, would expect Friday to be
the warmer day in the short-term, with upper 80s quite likely
anywhere that sees enough insolation.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Unsettled pattern will continue through the Memorial Day weekend,
with warm and muggy conditions and isolated to scattered showers/
storms almost on a daily basis.

Will start out Saturday with the most amplified pattern, but the
upper trof over the Plains tries to lift out, with a fair bit of
bagginess in the flow translating NNE through the Ohio Valley. This
will likely be the most unsettled day of the period, and we'll carry
the highest POPs but still limit to a 50 percent chance given low
confidence in the timing of any impulses.

As we head into Memorial Day and early next week, the pattern
flattens out a bit. The wild card is the warm core system that is
progged to develop off the Carolina coast. If it gets close and/or
strong enough, subsidence could keep a lid on convection here,
allowing us a dry day but pushing temps close to 90. Otherwise will
see a continuation of the summer pattern, resulting in isolated/
scattered POPs, with the best chances in the afternoon, and temps
running several degrees above normal, especially by night.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Well...line of storms from HNB to along the Western KY Parkway
pushing eastward and is the main story of first 12 hours of the
forecast. This moving eastward at 30 to 35 mph.  Mesoscale processes
during the afternoon sunshine will allow the storms to maintain
themselves into the SDF area by 1830z.

Scattered storms have developed along old outflow boundaries across
the BWG area, and will have VCTS this afternoon with better
instability in the warm sector.

The HRR takes the precip eastward into the Bluegrass Region around
22z, if in fact it maintains itself. Will be nowcasting LEX TAF.
Surface winds today will be south to southwest around 10 kts with
gusts 10-20 except in storms where gust up to 35 mph are possible.
HNB just had a gust to 36 mph.

Any storms should weaken later this evening with VFR conditions.
However, there could be some light fog developing at BWG and
LEX around daybreak.

Forecast is much drier for Friday with only very isolated
convection around the CWA.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......JDG
Hazardous weather outlook, May 26, 12:02 PM EDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1202 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-271615-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1202 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 /1102 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED BUT STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

ZT

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 26, 2:18 PM EDT, 31 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KYZ061>063-070>072-074-261845-
HART-BUTLER-WARREN-EDMONSON-SIMPSON-LOGAN-BARREN-
118 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WARREN...NORTHERN
SIMPSON...NORTHERN LOGAN...SOUTHERN BUTLER...SOUTHERN HART...
NORTHWESTERN BARREN AND EDMONSON COUNTIES...

AT 118 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF RUSSELLVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWLING GREEN...RUSSELLVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...PLUM SPRINGS...
CRESTMOOR...MOUNT VICTOR...DELAFIELD...MEMPHIS JUNCTION AND ANDERSON.

LAT...LON 3699 8705 3733 8630 3728 8568 3675 8652
      3688 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 273DEG 33KT 3728 8622 3678 8696

KJD
Local storm report, May 26, 2:25 PM EDT, 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
225 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             5 WSW MILLWOOD          37.43N 86.58W
05/26/2016  E1.50 INCH       GRAYSON            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM
Special weather statement, May 26, 2:41 PM EDT, 8 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

KYZ027>029-045-053-054-063-261915-
HART-LARUE-HARDIN-NELSON-MARION-GRAYSON-BULLITT-
241 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
MARION...SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN...NELSON...SOUTHEASTERN GRAYSON...SOUTH
CENTRAL BULLITT...LARUE AND NORTHERN HART COUNTIES...

AT 241 PM EDT/141 PM CDT/...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN TO 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELIZABETHTOWN...BARDSTOWN...HODGENVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...RADCLIFF...
LEBANON JUNCTION...NEW HAVEN...UPTON...SONORA AND BONNIEVILLE.

LAT...LON 3784 8583 3787 8525 3779 8533 3778 8536
      3776 8535 3776 8538 3771 8539 3746 8561
      3747 8563 3745 8566 3741 8566 3727 8578
      3731 8614 3734 8619 3733 8634
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 273DEG 30KT 3780 8575 3731 8618

KJD
Local storm report, May 26, 2:45 PM EDT, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AUSTIN                  38.74N 85.81W
05/26/2016                   SCOTT              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE ACROSS A ROAD.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM
Special weather statement, May 26, 2:47 PM EDT, 2 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
147 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KYZ061-062-070>073-261915-
BUTLER-WARREN-EDMONSON-SIMPSON-LOGAN-ALLEN-
147 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WARREN...NORTHERN
SIMPSON...CENTRAL LOGAN...BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN EDMONSON AND WEST
CENTRAL ALLEN COUNTIES...

AT 147 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MORGANTOWN TO 13 MILES EAST OF RUSSELLVILLE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWLING GREEN...RUSSELLVILLE...MORGANTOWN...PLUM SPRINGS...CRESTMOOR...
MOUNT VICTOR...DELAFIELD...MEMPHIS JUNCTION...ANDERSON AND AUBURN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3680 8696 3707 8695 3709 8690 3710 8690
      3711 8689 3713 8690 3713 8692 3716 8693
      3718 8692 3718 8689 3719 8689 3719 8691
      3721 8691 3722 8689 3725 8687 3726 8685
      3730 8634 3673 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 275DEG 24KT 3720 8675 3678 8666

KJD
Special weather statement, May 26, 2:49 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
249 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

KYZ032>035-261930-
FRANKLIN-HENRY-SHELBY-TRIMBLE-
249 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HENRY...FRANKLIN...
SHELBY AND SOUTHEASTERN TRIMBLE COUNTIES...

AT 249 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CARROLLTON TO NEW CASTLE TO NEAR SHELBYVILLE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKFORT...SHELBYVILLE...NEW CASTLE...EMINENCE...SIMPSONVILLE...
PLEASUREVILLE...CAMPBELLSBURG...SMITHFIELD...ELMBURG AND BRYANT.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LOUISVILLE.

LAT...LON 3858 8521 3860 8508 3856 8506 3856 8501
      3851 8503 3851 8498 3849 8499 3847 8495
      3843 8495 3846 8492 3846 8491 3844 8493
      3842 8488 3838 8490 3834 8479 3835 8475
      3812 8489 3814 8539 3840 8526 3861 8523
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 264DEG 27KT 3868 8514 3842 8518 3818 8530

RJS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 26, 1:46 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKGrayson29 min
May 26, 1:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Grayson, Ohio28 min
May 26, 1:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKBreckinridge34 min
May 26, 2:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKEdmonson, Logan, Warren27 min
May 26, 2:41 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKHardin, Hart, Larue, Nelson34 min
May 26, 2:47 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKButler, Logan, Warren28 min
May 26, 2:49 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKButler, Edmonson, Logan, Warren3 hr
May 26, 2:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKGreen, Hardin, Hart, Larue33 min
May 26, 3:07 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLMKButler, Logan, Simpson, Warren3 hr
May 26, 3:09 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKLogan36 min
May 26, 3:20 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKBarren, Hart, Simpson, Warren25 min
May 26, 3:29 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKGreen, Marion31 min
May 26, 3:44 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKAllen, Barren, Metcalfe, Simpson31 min
May 26, 3:49 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKTaylor26 min
May 26, 4:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKAllen, Barren, Cumberland, Metcalfe, Monroe, Simpson32 min
May 26, 4:15 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKAdair, Casey, Lincoln, Russell30 min
May 26, 4:20 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKBarren, Edmonson, Hart, Metcalfe, Warren115 min
May 26, 4:26 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKAdair, Casey, Green, Metcalfe, Russell, Taylor3 hr
May 26, 4:27 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKAllen, Logan, Simpson, Warren3 hr
May 26, 4:43 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLMKLogan, Simpson, Warren3 hr
May 26, 7:05 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningLMKLogan, Simpson, Warren3 hr
May 26, 11:53 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKDubois37 min
May 26, 12:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKCrawford, Orange, Scott, Washington49 min
May 26, 2:00 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKJefferson30 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kentucky, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.