Alert archive / Kentucky / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

May 10, 2016Hardin County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this special weather statement at May 10, 2016, 4:16 PM EDT for Hardin County, Kentucky. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2016, 4:16 PM EDT (20:16 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2016, 4:45 PM EDT
In force: 29 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY

County Hardin County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 62 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -131 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 818 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 339 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 332 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 10, 3:03 PM EDT, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 3:03 PM EDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
303 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue May 10 2016

...A Couple Rounds of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible...

The immediate concern is this afternoon remains the possibility of
severe thunderstorms. Afternoon mesoanalysis shows the highest shear
values and effective helicity values west of I-65. This is the area
most likely to see supercells or potentially a tornado. The forecast
does show this area shifting a bit east over the next few hours, but
not as far as eastern KY. Across the rest of the Watch area, SBCAPE
values have risen into the 1000-2000 J/kg range and there is the
potential for storms to form along outflow boundaries or
differential heating boundaries. Damaging winds and potentially
large hail will be the main concern. Across portions of southern IN
not in the watch, the rain from earlier has stabilized the region
somewhat, so the severe potential is less.

The strong storms may continue into the early evening hours. They
should weaken as the sun goes down and the upper level wave moves
east of the region. However, showers and storms will continue into
the overnight hours with area of highest coverage shifting to the
south.

For Wednesday there should be a relative lull in precipitation
during the morning hours. Temperatures will rise into the 80s in the
afternoon with dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 60s. Model
sounding show quite a bit of instability developing during the
afternoon with CAPE values rising to 2500-3000J/kg. However, wind
shear will be much lower than it is today and weak upper level
ridging will be building in. In addition, the only real triggers for
storms will be leftover boundaries from today's convection.
Therefore, if any storms do develop, they could become severe with
damaging winds and large hail. However, coverage of storms should be
more sparse than today.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 10 2016

Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible on
Thursday as a cold front approaches and moves through the area. With
the area in the warm sector for much of the day temperatures will
rise into the lower 80s with instability increasing through the day.
Shear values will still be marginal, but with the front moving in,
some strong storms could become severe and produce wind damage,
particularly if there is a break in the storms during the morning
hours.

The rain will move out on Thursday night with drier air and high
pressure building in behind it. Friday will be dry with highs in the
low to mid 70s.

The dry weather will be short lived as another wave and cold front
swings into the area Friday night. This will bring another round of
showers Friday night that will be moving out on Saturday morning.
This boundary will then stall out to the south of the region and
serve as a focus for more showers and storms from Sunday into early
next week.

Temperatures through the weekend will be on the cool side. Highs
will be in the 60s with lows in the 40s. We should see some
moderation early next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue May 10 2016

Strengthening line of convection across western Kentucky will
continue to move eastward this afternoon.  This activity will affect
KSDF and KBWG early in the period and then affect KLEX later this
afternoon and evening.  A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings are expected
early this afternoon as skies break out from this morning's
convection.  Ceilings will see a short improvement to VFR before
going back down into MVFR/VFR range as the second batch of
convection moves across the region.

Best timing on convection for BWG looks to be in the 10/20 to 11/04Z
and at KSDF from 10/19 through 10/22Z.  Given KLEX's further east
location, convection will likely hold off until after 10/20Z.  In
advance of convection, a southwest wind of 10-15kts with occasional
gusts in the 20-24kt range will be possible.

Forecast confidence for the overnight period is quite low.  It looks
like convection will wane after sunset with the loss of heating and
forcing.  If skies clear out, then fog will be a problem.  For now
have taken KBWG and KLEX down to MVFR overnight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ

Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 3:22 PM EDT, 54 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

INZ078-079-090>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-111930-
SCOTT-JEFFERSON-HARRISON-FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-
GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-
ANDERSON-WOODFORD-FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-WASHINGTON-MERCER-
JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-
GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-
METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...CORYDON...
NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
322 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 /222 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL VARY DEPENDING
ON HOW STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EACH DAY...BUT 1-2 INCHES WITH
SCATTERED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING THIS
WEEK TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ076-077-083-084-089-111930-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...JASPER...ENGLISH...
TELL CITY
322 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 /222 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL VARY DEPENDING
ON HOW STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EACH DAY...BUT 1-2 INCHES WITH
SCATTERED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING THIS
WEEK TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

EER

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 10, 4:04 PM EDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
404 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             2 S FLAHERTY            37.81N 86.07W
05/10/2016  E0.88 INCH       HARDIN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W RINEYVILLE          37.74N 86.04W
05/10/2016                   HARDIN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 INCH DIAMETER CEDAR TREE DOWNED NEAR
            BLUEBALL HILL

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

Special weather statement, May 10, 4:07 PM EDT, 9 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KYZ027-028-053-062-063-102045-
HART-LARUE-EDMONSON-HARDIN-GRAYSON-
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HARDIN...
GRAYSON...SOUTHWESTERN LARUE...NORTHWESTERN HART AND NORTHERN
EDMONSON COUNTIES...

AT 407 PM EDT/307 PM CDT/...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF ELIZABETHTOWN TO 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEITCHFIELD...HODGENVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...CLARKSON...UPTON...SONORA...
BONNIEVILLE...SADLER...PEONIA AND RIDERS MILL.

LAT...LON 3751 8642 3759 8633 3758 8631 3759 8628
      3764 8625 3765 8560 3764 8560 3764 8558
      3761 8562 3761 8561 3724 8594 3727 8645
      3736 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 248DEG 38KT 3765 8604 3730 8641

AMS

Local storm report, May 10, 4:09 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
409 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             VINE GROVE              37.81N 85.98W
05/10/2016  M0.50 INCH       HARDIN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SZAPPANOS

Local storm report, May 10, 4:13 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
413 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     HAIL             LEBANON JUNCTION        37.83N 85.73W
05/10/2016  M0.50 INCH       BULLITT            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SZAPPANOS

Local storm report, May 10, 4:14 PM EDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEBANON JUNCTION        37.83N 85.73W
05/10/2016  E50 MPH          BULLITT            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SZAPPANOS

Special weather statement, May 10, 4:16 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
416 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KYZ028-045-053-102045-
LARUE-HARDIN-NELSON-
416 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HARDIN...WEST CENTRAL
NELSON AND NORTH CENTRAL LARUE COUNTIES...

AT 416 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELIZABETHTOWN...NEW HAVEN...CECILIA...BLUE GAP...SAINT JOHN...GAITHERS...
PIERCE MILL...YOUNGER CREEK...HOWE VALLEY AND KRAFT.

LAT...LON 3764 8624 3774 8600 3775 8581 3778 8550
      3764 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 252DEG 30KT 3769 8586

AMS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 1:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Hancock	34 min
May 10, 2:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hancock, Ohio	37 min
May 10, 2:17 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Hancock, Ohio	28 min
May 10, 2:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge, Grayson, Hancock, Meade	47 min
May 10, 2:37 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Breckinridge, Hancock	23 min
May 10, 2:59 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Breckinridge	31 min
May 10, 3:19 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Breckinridge, Hardin	26 min
May 10, 3:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge	15 min
May 10, 3:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Hardin, Larue, Nelson	34 min
May 10, 4:07 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Grayson, Larue	38 min
May 10, 4:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Hardin, Nelson	31 min
May 10, 4:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Grayson, Hardin	37 min
May 10, 4:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hardin, Larue, Marion, Nelson	35 min
May 10, 4:35 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LMK	Hardin	3 hr
May 10, 4:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Nelson, Spencer, Washington	33 min
May 10, 4:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Grayson, Green, Hart, Larue, Marion	43 min
May 10, 4:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Marion, Mercer, Nelson, Washington	35 min
May 10, 5:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Boyle, Mercer, Washington, Woodford	27 min
May 10, 5:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Green, Larue, Marion, Taylor	42 min
May 10, 5:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Green, Hart, Larue	37 min
May 10, 5:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Boyle, Fayette, Garrard, Jessamine, Mercer and 1 more	47 min
May 10, 5:55 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Hart	20 min
May 10, 6:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Clark, Fayette, Garrard, Jessamine, Madison and 2 more	38 min
May 10, 6:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Green, Hart, Taylor	30 min
May 10, 6:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Ohio	44 min
May 10, 6:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Casey, Garrard, Lincoln, Marion, Taylor	36 min
May 10, 6:24 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Ohio	36 min
May 10, 6:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Clark, Garrard, Jessamine, Madison	39 min
May 10, 6:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Casey, Marion, Taylor	29 min
May 10, 6:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Green, Hart, Larue, Taylor	22 min
May 10, 6:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Garrard, Lincoln, Madison	47 min
May 10, 6:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Butler, Ohio	47 min
May 10, 7:00 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Casey, Lincoln, Taylor	15 min
May 10, 7:01 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Ohio	13 min
May 10, 7:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Jefferson, Oldham	43 min
May 10, 7:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Casey, Lincoln, Marion, Taylor	30 min
May 10, 7:17 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Breckinridge, Grayson, Ohio	28 min
May 10, 7:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Meade	42 min
May 10, 7:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Henry, Jefferson, Oldham, Shelby	36 min
May 10, 7:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Barren, Green, Hart, Metcalfe	33 min
May 10, 7:40 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Breckinridge, Grayson	20 min
May 10, 7:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Butler, Edmonson, Grayson	29 min
May 10, 7:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Green	33 min
May 10, 7:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Green, Taylor	31 min
May 10, 6:35 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Floyd, Harrison, Perry	40 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kentucky, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.