Alert archive / Indiana / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

May 1, 2016Crawford County, Perry County, Indiana

NWS Louisville, KY issued this special weather statement at May 1, 2016, 4:09 PM EDT for Crawford County, Perry County, Indiana. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 1, 2016, 4:09 PM EDT (20:09 UTC)
Expired: May 1, 2016, 4:45 PM EDT
In force: 36 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY

Counties Crawford County, IN, Perry County, IN

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 216 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 259 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -48 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 732 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 1, 3:08 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 1, 3:08 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
308 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 1 2016

...Severe Storms Ongoing this Afternoon...

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features broad southwest
flow across the Ohio Valley.  A dampening trough was moving through
portions of the Midwest, interacting with a surface front located
across portions west-central KY northeast into portions of southern
Ohio.

Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed along residual outflow
boundaries and along the surface front this afternoon. Dewpoints in
the low to mid 60s coupled with temperatures rising into the low 80s
has resulted in MLCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg.  Deep layer
shear around 50 knots is contributing to long, straight hodographs
which will favor supercells (possibly splitting) and a few multicell
clusters.  Main threat will be hail with wet bulb zeros around 9-10k
feet, but given dry air around 700mb some dry air entrainment into
downdrafts may lead to localized damaging winds as well.

Convection should wind down in coverage tonight as instability wanes
and the front pushes east/southeast.  However, this front will stall
just to the south of the region tonight.  Yet another PV anomaly
will eject out of the Southwest and will ride up along the front
Monday afternoon into Monday evening, which will result in renewed
showers and a few thunderstorms mainly across the southeastern half
of the LMK CWA. It appears much of the region will be on the cool
side of the boundary, so severe weather is not anticipated.  Highs
will be cooler on the north side of the boundary with temperatures
in the 60s to lower 70s.

The trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday,
spreading its trough axis through the region Tuesday afternoon.
There won't be much low-level moisture to work with, but think lift
will be sufficient to squeeze out a few very light showers Tuesday
afternoon.  Temperatures will be even cooler in the northwesterly
flow, with temperatures only expected to make it into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun May 1 2016

A deep upper trof is still expected to dig into the eastern half of
the United States for the second half of the work week, followed by
ridging building in from the Plains for most of the weekend.

A surface cold front will come in from the north Wednesday, pushing
off to the south and east Wednesday night. There is some wind energy
with this system but very little instability as we only get into the
60s for highs that afternoon. Precipitable numbers aren't all that
great either. So, at this time it just looks like showery weather
with maybe a few rumbles of thunder. A few CAA showers may also
linger behind the front in the Blue Grass on Thursday.

Canadian high pressure dropping to the southeast along with rising
heights aloft will lead to pleasant weather for late this week and
into the weekend. Can't rule out a few showers generally along and
east of I-75 closer to the upper trof, but coverage should be low.

The upper trof will bring downright chilly temperatures with lows
Thursday morning and Friday morning well down into the 40s. Folks in
the Blue Grass may see readings not get out of the 50s on Thursday.
A warming trend will then ensue as the Plains ridging moves in, with
afternoon temperatures back up near 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1241 PM EDT Sun May 1 2016

Confidence is growing that a cluster of thunderstorms will develop
just west of SDF over the next hour or two and move east into LEX
later this afternoon.  Have timed this window out with a TEMPO
group, but will go prevailing once the storms begin to develop.
Expect IFR vsbys, gusty and variable winds, along with possibly some
hail with these storms.  Confidence in convective coverage is not as
high at BWG, but still think a storm or two may impact the terminal
this afternoon.  Outside of any storms, cigs should continue to mix
out to VFR with winds turning more to the WSW at 5-10 knots.

Convection will clear out tonight leaving VFR conditions.  There may
be some low stratus development especially at LEX, but not high
enough confidence to include at this time.  Additional showers will
move in from the southwest late in the period at BWG and into the
planning period at SDF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD

Hazardous weather outlook, May 1, 3:20 PM EDT, 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-021930-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
320 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 /220 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 133 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR
FLOODING TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KD

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 1, 3:47 PM EDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
347 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE WESTPORT          38.46N 85.46W
05/01/2016  E49 MPH          OLDHAM             KY   PUBLIC

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, May 1, 3:48 PM EDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             CHARLESTOWN             38.45N 85.67W
05/01/2016  E1.75 INCH       CLARK              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

Special weather statement, May 1, 3:50 PM EDT, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

KYZ024-028-012015-
HARDIN-BRECKINRIDGE-
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL AFFECT
WEST CENTRAL HARDIN AND SOUTHEASTERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES...

AT 349 PM EDT /249 PM CDT/...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 13 MILES EAST
OF HARDINSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELIZABETHTOWN...RADCLIFF...VINE GROVE...CECILIA...CUSTER...STEPHENSBURG...
ROSETTA...BIG SPRING...AND SAINT JOHN.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR A LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3781 8617 3780 8615 3782 8601 3783 8600
      3784 8593 3759 8593 3764 8628 3780 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 264DEG 29KT 3772 8622

13

Local storm report, May 1, 3:57 PM EDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             CUSTER                  37.73N 86.25W
05/01/2016  E0.75 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   PUBLIC

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, May 1, 4:04 PM EDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
404 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             2 NNE LA GRANGE         38.43N 85.36W
05/01/2016  E1.00 INCH       OLDHAM             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM

Special weather statement, May 1, 4:09 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

INZ084-089-090-KYZ023-025-012045-
CRAWFORD-HARRISON-PERRY-MEADE-HANCOCK-
409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...PERRY...
CENTRAL CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN MEADE AND NORTH CENTRAL HANCOCK
COUNTIES...

AT 409 PM EDT/309 PM CDT/...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR HOLIDAY
WORLD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAREFREE TOWN...MOUNT PLEASANT...LEOPOLD...TROY...LEAVENWORTH...ALTON...NEW
AMSTERDAM...CELINA...SULPHUR AND LILLY DALE.

LAT...LON 3800 8681 3802 8680 3800 8677 3803 8677
      3804 8679 3806 8677 3808 8678 3810 8677
      3812 8681 3812 8680 3815 8681 3823 8679
      3834 8623 3808 8618 3803 8647 3805 8649
      3805 8651 3802 8653 3796 8686 3798 8687
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 261DEG 46KT 3814 8681

JDG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 1, 1:42 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Cumberland	33 min
May 1, 2:01 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Russell	29 min
May 1, 2:09 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Clinton, Russell	36 min
May 1, 2:41 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Cumberland	34 min
May 1, 2:36 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Breckinridge	39 min
May 1, 2:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Oldham, Trimble	30 min
May 1, 2:55 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Spencer	35 min
May 1, 3:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Henry, Oldham, Trimble	36 min
May 1, 3:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Franklin, Henry, Oldham	26 min
May 1, 3:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Anderson	32 min
May 1, 3:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Franklin, Scott, Shelby	41 min
May 1, 3:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Hardin	25 min
May 1, 3:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Mercer, Washington, Woodford	37 min
May 1, 4:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Franklin, Jefferson, Oldham, Shelby	30 min
May 1, 4:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Franklin, Henry	27 min
May 1, 4:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Fayette, Jessamine, Madison, Mercer, Woodford	45 min
May 1, 4:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Harrison, Nicholas, Scott	38 min
May 1, 4:45 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Harrison, Nicholas, Scott	3 hr
May 1, 4:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Clark, Fayette, Madison	42 min
May 1, 4:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Oldham, Trimble	49 min
May 1, 5:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Harrison, Nicholas	32 min
May 1, 2:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Floyd	44 min
May 1, 4:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Harrison, Perry	30 min
May 1, 4:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Clark, Floyd	25 min
May 1, 5:05 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Floyd, Harrison	25 min
May 1, 6:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Jefferson	18 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Indiana, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.