Severe Thunderstorm Warning 316, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
322 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A shortwave rounding the western edge of the ridge to our east is
helping kick off convection this afternoon in a moderately unstable
environment.  Expect isld-scattered storms to continue to develop
over the area late this afternoon and lasting through the evening
hours before diminishing.  The main threats with these storms will
be gusty winds and very heavy rainfall.  A few storms have the
potential to become severe with wind gusts over 50 mph.  Also, with
very slow storm motions and very heavy rainfall, minor flooding
issues may be a concern this evening.

For tonight, expect dry conditions by late evening and through the
overnight hours.  Low temperatures will bottom out in the lower 70s
again.

Monday will be another hot, muggy day with 20-30% chances of
showers/storms during the afternoon/early evening hrs.  At this
point, the short range models don't show a clear trigger for storms.
Think that left over boundaries from tonight's convection may be a
determining factor for tomorrow's. Soundings are again favorable for
pulse type storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.  High temps
will be in the upper 80s/lower 90s with heat indices nearing 100
degrees during the late afternoon hours.  Monday night lows will
range from the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Tuesday - Wednesday...

A few more hot days ahead Tue/Wed before a front comes through late
Wed.  Tue looks mainly dry with no real trigger in the area to spark
storms and a decent cap aloft. However, Wed afternoon we could see a
few storms during the afternoon/evening hours as we get some forcing
as the cold front approaches from the NNW.  The exact timing of the
fropa will determine how far south we see storms push into our
region before we lose instability into the evening hours and
convection diminishes.  Will focus the best convection chances over
southern Indiana for now and adjust in coming days as the forecast
becomes a bit more clear.

Thursday - Sunday...

A much more pleasant airmass will arrive behind the front for the
rest of the work week.  Highs will drop back into the upper 70s to
mid 80s for Thu/Fri/Sat with lower humidities.  The airmass will be
more stable as well in the upper trough resulting in dry days.

By Sunday, however, we'll start to see a warm-up as an upper ridge
begins to work back into the region from the west.  Highs will be
back into the mid to upper 80s with dewpts creeping back toward 70
Sun afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Most immediate TAF concern will be the development of isld-sct
convection over the region this afternoon.  Based on mesoanalysis
and high-res models, all TAF sites could see at least VCTS this
afternoon/early evening.  Will need to update the TAF with more
definite timing and reduced flight conditions as convection forms.

Tonight all TAF sites could see light br especially if they receive
a shower/storm this afternoon.  Will continue the 2-4 hr window of
MVFR conditions during the pre-dawn hours and perhaps adjust
downward if necessary based on convection and evening model guidance.

Winds will generally remain ENE below 7 kts.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-291945-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 /242 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE THE GREATEST THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

OUTSIDE OF STORMS...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100 THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE AS
WELL AS MINOR FLOODING THIS EVENING.

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
425 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE DUCKERS           38.19N 84.77W
08/28/2016                   FRANKLIN           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

SZAPPANOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
426 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KYZ043-282100-
NICHOLAS-
426 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NICHOLAS COUNTY...

AT 426 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHARPSBURG.
THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAST UNION AND MOOREFIELD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3820 8397 3821 8397 3821 8398 3822 8398
      3822 8399 3820 8399 3822 8401 3821 8403
      3822 8403 3823 8405 3830 8403 3827 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 106DEG 4KT 3824 8398

RJS

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