Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Louisville, KY

964 
WWUS53 KLMK 140423
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1223 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

KYC017-181-140445-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-160714T0445Z/
NICHOLAS KY-BOURBON KY-
1223 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM EDT
FOR CENTRAL NICHOLAS AND EAST CENTRAL BOURBON COUNTIES...

AT 1223 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CARLISLE...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARLISLE...LITTLE ROCK...EAST UNION...MYERS...JACKSTOWN...
PLEASANT VALLEY...PLUM...MOOREFIELD...WESTON AND SPROUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 8385 3816 8402 3815 8422 3820 8419
      3840 8395 3840 8393 3836 8392 3836 8389
      3835 8390 3836 8387 3835 8387 3835 8386
      3833 8386 3834 8384 3832 8385 3831 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 262DEG 32KT 3827 8396 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHOETTMER

760 
WWUS53 KLMK 140439
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1239 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

KYC017-181-140448-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-160714T0445Z/
NICHOLAS KY-BOURBON KY-
1239 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL NICHOLAS AND EAST
CENTRAL BOURBON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM EDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...POST YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET YOUR
REPORT USING HASHTAG L...M...K...SPOTTER.

LAT...LON 3830 8385 3816 8402 3815 8422 3820 8419
      3840 8395 3840 8393 3836 8392 3836 8389
      3835 8390 3836 8387 3835 8387 3835 8386
      3833 8386 3834 8384 3832 8385 3831 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0437Z 262DEG 32KT 3827 8396 

$$

SCHOETTMER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
930 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued 930 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Line of mid-level convection did do a job on killing some of the
instability over the area.  Still have a few pockets/stronger
elements within the line. Have trimmed a few counties from the
watch, behind the line. Will keep going on trimming as the line
heads east.

Issued 715 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Line of storms getting reinvigorated as it runs into an pocket of
available instability. Still unsure how it will handle the mid-level
moisture out ahead of the line, whether it work at weakening the
line or not. Either way, reports continue to come in with the line
and its fast forward motion. As such, we've coordinated a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch with SPC to cover where we expect the line to
march through. Updated products out shortly.

Issued 600 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Have a line of storms moving quickly toward the western edge of our
forecast area this hour. It should make it into Dubois county before
730 PM. An interesting feature popped up ahead of it this hour
though, on the latest visible satellite. Some mid level returns are
noted, which may help to stabilize the environment ahead of the
line. Those returns are just starting to show up on radar now. Will
be interesting to see how this feature affects the southern part of
the line. SPC mesoanalysis indicates a fairly unstable environment
for the line to progress through in just northwest of our forecast
area, in southwest Indiana.

Have fine-tuned the gridded forecast for pops. Bringing a better
chance for storms into Louisville later this evening. This change in
based on some of the higher-res models, like the HRRR, which have
been persistent in bringing the line east into our area.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

A hot and humid low-level air mass remains in place across the Ohio
Valley, currently sending Heat Indices to around 100 over central
and western parts of the forecast area.  The only good thing about
the heat right now is that it's even warmer aloft.  A mid-level cap
is currently preventing explosive convective growth, with cumulus
remaining flat. Should a storm manage to break this cap, though,
MLCAPEs in excess of 3500 J/kg prevail. In other words, the current
airmass doesn't support a high potential for a lot of storms, but if
any DO break the cap, the threat for severe will definitely be there
(hence the SPC slight risk straddling the Ohio River).  The primary
threat for any storms that make it through the cap will be high
winds, since the warm, moist thermal profile limits the large hail
threat and winds don't support tornadoes.

All of the above having been said, a large squall line making its
way across Missouri this afternoon is heading east at the moment.
The short range models models are in fairly good agreement with
keeping this north of the Ohio River this evening, but disagree on
just how far north.  The bottom line is that Indiana counties will
have the best chance of storms this evening, with decreasing chances
as you head south.

General - a.k.a non-severe - thunderstorm chances will spread across
all of central KY and southern IN overnight and on Thursday as
additional short-wave ripples in the upper flow persist. Weaker
instability aloft through the period means hail and strong winds
will not be likely with these, but tropical-like downpours will be
possible with any storms.

Temperatures will only dip into the lower to mid 70s for lows both
tonight and Thursday night, while most highs Thursday top out around
90.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

A subtle change in the upper level pattern over the U.S. is in
store for the extended period.  Heading into next week, the Ohio
Valley will see a slight break in the heat as the 500 mb pattern
transitions from a nearly zonal flow today to a high amplitude ridge
over the Great Plains by day 7. With the amplification of the ridge
to the west, the region will have a northwest component to the upper
air flow, resulting in a reduction of SFC-500 mb thicknesses that
will translate into highs in the mid 80s for the weekend.  As the
upper ridge widens and intensifies however, warmer air will return,
sending daytime highs back into the 90s for the start of the work
week. The down side of a ridge centered that far west is that we'll
be along the northwest flow "ring of fire" - a climatological stormy
area known for nocturnal MCS development and poor handling by the
models.

In a nutshell, what all of the above means is a hot, humid, and
unsettled weather pattern for the week. While dewpoints in the upper
60s to mid 70s will keep it sweaty, daytime highs limited to the mid
80s to lower 90s will only result in Heat Indices in the upper 90s
for the most part, limiting the likelihood of heat advisories or
warnings.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Have some light rains headed toward SDF now, but a meatier line of
storms will move through within the first hour or two of the TAF
time, with gusts to 30 knots, if not more, looking more likely. This
line should not be as strong by the time it gets to LEX/BWG, but
have some wind gusts in each a little later. Overnight, a omplex of
storms over central Missouri now may try and sneak into BWG's area,
but in a weaker state, given the potential for this first wave to
eat up some instability. After that will watch for residual low
ceilings and then potential for new showers/storms Thursday, but the
focus in this set of TAFs is the initial line.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....JBS
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>027-030>032-041>043-046>049-
053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-150230-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-GARRARD-
MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-LOGAN-WARREN-
SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-
CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...MILTON...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...
DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...
HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...
RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...
GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...
BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 /929 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT INTERVALS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGE FROM STORMS.

KYZ028-029-033>040-045-150230-
HARDIN-BULLITT-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SCOTT-HARRISON-SPENCER-ANDERSON-
WOODFORD-NELSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELIZABETHTOWN...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...BARDSTOWN
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS COULD BECOME VERY STRONG, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT INTERVALS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS
DAMAGE FROM THOSE WINDS TONIGHT.

JBS/RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1114 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

KYZ035-036-039>041-140345-
FRANKLIN-WOODFORD-SCOTT-FAYETTE-ANDERSON-
1114 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT...NORTHERN WOODFORD AND NORTHEASTERN
ANDERSON COUNTIES...

AT 1114 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FRANKFORT...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEXINGTON...GEORGETOWN...FRANKFORT...VERSAILLES...MIDWAY...STAMPING
GROUND...BON AIR HILLS...JETT...BIG EDDY AND MILLVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3808 8505 3827 8491 3834 8449 3805 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 267DEG 36KT 3817 8490

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1122 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

KYZ035>037-043-140345-
FRANKLIN-SCOTT-HARRISON-NICHOLAS-
1122 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NICHOLAS...
HARRISON...EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTIES...

AT 1122 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
CYNTHIANA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CYNTHIANA...BRECKINRIDGE...STAMPING GROUND...SADIEVILLE...BERRY...
MORNING GLORY...COLVILLE...LAIR...BROADWELL AND VENUS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3835 8416 3837 8419 3834 8424 3825 8480
      3840 8468 3848 8457 3851 8449 3854 8448
      3853 8446 3854 8443 3857 8441 3858 8420
      3856 8422 3855 8421 3855 8416 3850 8418
      3850 8416 3849 8417 3845 8405 3837 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 253DEG 45KT 3840 8449

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1133 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE SHELBYVILLE       38.18N 85.21W
07/13/2016                   SHELBY             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG MT. EDEN ROAD IN THE AREA
            OF HOOPER STATION AND MCMAKIN-MCMULLEN.

&&

KDW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1152 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

KYZ042-043-140415-
BOURBON-NICHOLAS-
1152 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NICHOLAS AND NORTHEASTERN
BOURBON COUNTIES...

AT 1152 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CARLISLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARLISLE...MILLERSBURG...ELLISVILLE...MYERS...BARTERVILLE...
HEADQUARTERS...BLUE LICKS SPRINGS...PLEASANT VALLEY...
MOOREFIELD AND WESTON.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3826 8390 3825 8425 3840 8410 3845 8412
      3846 8410 3844 8402 3843 8400 3842 8400
      3844 8399 3844 8397 3842 8395 3836 8392
      3836 8389 3835 8390 3836 8387 3833 8386
      3834 8384 3832 8385 3831 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 267DEG 33KT 3840 8408

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1154 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

KYZ036-040>043-048-049-140430-
BOURBON-WOODFORD-SCOTT-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-CLARK-JESSAMINE-
1154 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN
NICHOLAS...BOURBON...NORTHERN JESSAMINE...CLARK...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT
AND CENTRAL WOODFORD COUNTIES...

AT 1154 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER VERSAILLES...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEXINGTON...GEORGETOWN...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...VERSAILLES...
PARIS...CADENTOWN...MEADOWTHORPE...CARDINAL HILL AND CHEVY CHASE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3818 8399 3812 8408 3794 8397 3792 8399
      3787 8401 3787 8403 3786 8402 3786 8401
      3785 8401 3788 8426 3792 8427 3789 8434
      3794 8482 3795 8482 3797 8480 3798 8482
      3801 8482 3815 8470 3825 8435 3826 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 255DEG 33KT 3805 8468

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1214 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CYNTHIANA               38.39N 84.30W
07/13/2016                   HARRISON           KY   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINE DOWN ON WEST PLEASANT STREET.

&&

KDW