Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Louisville, KY

717 
WGUS63 KLMK 121929
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

.A STALLED OUT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES
WILL COMBINE WITH IMMENSE AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...TO
INITIATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING
2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-032-130900-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0007.160813T1800Z-160815T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-TRIMBLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...BEDFORD...MILTON
329 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 /229 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN INDIANA...CLARK...CRAWFORD...DUBOIS...FLOYD... 
  HARRISON...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...PERRY...SCOTT AND WASHINGTON. 
  IN KENTUCKY...HANCOCK AND TRIMBLE. 

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL 
  RATES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. 

* AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE FORECAST IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

RJS

783 
WGUS63 KLMK 130812
FFALMK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
412 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT TO INITIATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

KYZ030-031-033-132000-
/O.EXB.KLMK.FF.A.0007.160813T1800Z-160815T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-OLDHAM-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...NEW CASTLE
412 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL 
  KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...HENRY...JEFFERSON 
  AND OLDHAM. 

* FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
  RATES POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-032-132000-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FF.A.0007.160813T1800Z-160815T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-TRIMBLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...BEDFORD...MILTON
412 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 /312 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN INDIANA...CLARK...CRAWFORD...DUBOIS...FLOYD... 
  HARRISON...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...PERRY...SCOTT AND WASHINGTON. 
  IN KENTUCKY...HANCOCK AND TRIMBLE. 

* FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE
  RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
TWF

699 
WGUS63 KLMK 131939
FFALMK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT TO INITIATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL PRODUCE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-030>033-140830-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160816T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...LOUISVILLE...
LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...NEW CASTLE
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 /239 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN INDIANA...CLARK...CRAWFORD...DUBOIS...FLOYD... 
  HARRISON...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...PERRY...SCOTT AND WASHINGTON. 
  IN KENTUCKY...HANCOCK...HENRY...JEFFERSON...OLDHAM AND 
  TRIMBLE. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE
  RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BJS

384 
WGUS63 KLMK 140717
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
317 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

INZ090>092-KYZ023-030>033-140830-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160816T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRISON-FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-JEFFERSON-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...
LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...
MILTON...NEW CASTLE
317 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 /217 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
NORTH...AS A RESULT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

INZ076>079-083-084-089-142100-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160816T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY
317 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 /217 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES...CRAWFORD...DUBOIS...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...PERRY...SCOTT
  AND WASHINGTON.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE THROUGH
  TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS

* AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

ZT

235 
WGUS63 KLMK 141954
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
354 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

INZ076>079-083-084-089-150830-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160816T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY
354 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 /254 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... 
  CRAWFORD...DUBOIS...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...PERRY...SCOTT AND 
  WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE THROUGH
  TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BJS

785 
WGUS63 KLMK 150743
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
343 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

INZ076>079-083-084-089-152000-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160816T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY
343 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 /243 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... 
  CRAWFORD...DUBOIS...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...PERRY...SCOTT AND 
  WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE THROUGH 
  TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS. 

* AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

339 
WGUS63 KLMK 151251
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
851 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

INZ077>079-084-089-151400-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160816T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-PERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
ENGLISH...TELL CITY
851 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 /751 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF INDIANA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL FALLING OVER AREAS
THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER.

$$

INZ076-083-152100-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160816T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-DUBOIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...JASPER
851 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 /751 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...DUBOIS 
  AND ORANGE. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE THROUGH 
  TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS. 

* AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

RJS

780 
WGUS63 KLMK 151831
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
231 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

INZ076-083-160400-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160816T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-DUBOIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...JASPER
231 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 /131 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...DUBOIS 
  AND ORANGE. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE THROUGH 
  TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND 
  THUNDERSTORMS. 

* AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

165 
WGUS63 KLMK 160346
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1146 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES...

.A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DUBOIS AND
ORANGE COUNTIES. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

INZ076-083-161200-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160816T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-DUBOIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...JASPER
1146 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 /1046 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
TUESDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...DUBOIS 
  AND ORANGE. 

* UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY

* HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE WITH ROUNDS
  OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

* AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS
SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

13

907 
WGUS63 KLMK 160707
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA ENDED...

.THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
ENDED. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY...FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

INZ076-083-160815-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-160816T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE-DUBOIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...JASPER
307 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 /207 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING NO LONGER EXISTS...THOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY.

$$

ZT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
338 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2016

Overnight...

Well...the radar is PPINE with mostly clear skies and we still were
unable to see the Perseid Meteor Showers outside. It is still 81
degrees outside at 2 am with a 73 dew point. Water vapor loop shows
weak vort max over far Ern Ky and the CWA being under a herculean
ridge orientated e-w with 597 m H% height reported at Morehead City,
NC last evening.

Today...

Today will be a repeat of Thursday with only isolated convection
from 16z to 00z.  Model Soundings show a smidge of capping thru the
afternoon hours, so coverage of storms will be sparse. The best
chance for storms looks to be over portions of north central KY and
southern IN. Mix of clouds and sun today with strong CU field once
again.  Highs once again hovering around the 90 degree mark with
heat indices in the 97 to 101 degree range. It will not be as hot as
Seymour TX on this date in 1936, hitting a TX state record of 120
degrees.

Tonight...

Rain chances will increase slightly after midnight as a slow moving
front starts to approach from the northwest. The models have slowed
the front so am delaying bulk of the pcn until Saturday. For now
increased POPS into chance category from the OH River. Cloud cover
will keep temps up and near 80 in LOU...cooler across srn tier.

Sat...

A very humid airmass will remain in place with frontal boundary
petering out across S Central IN. Precipitable water values through
the weekend will be in the 2.1-2.4 inch range (NAM at 2.6 inches is
too high). As disturbances move along the boundary, rounds of
showers and thunderstorms will develop. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers bringing torrential rainfall at
times.

Scattered morning storms across southern IN will become more
numerous during the afternoon. The storms will slowly move south of
the Ohio River by mid day or early afternoon. Much of east central
Kentucky will likely stay dry through most of the day Saturday.
Will coordinate with NWS neighbors on whether there is a consensus
on issuing any flood headlines. There is a separate section of the
discussion on Hydro below.

W.R.T. temps...planning on going on the low end of the model
guidance north of the BG Parkway and going at or above guidance
across Srn Tier of counties.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2016

...Unsettled Weather Expected Through The Period With Heavy Rainfall
Likely...

The Bermuda High breaks down and quasi-stationary front stretching
across CWA will combine with copious moisture and multiple waves
riding northeast along this boundary to set stage for heavy rain and
possible flooding.

Saturday Night and Sunday...

The NAM goes wild with the low-level jet...the moisture transport is
maxed out.  The models all have a signal for heavy rain but the
amount and orientation is quite different.  The NAM and ECMWF are
similar, in fact the ECMWF has had 4 runs in a row with prolonged
episodic periods of rain from Sat late day through Tue. The GFS has
had 4 runs very similar too.

For Sunday the focus for storms will move slightly more southward,
with more of the region likely seeing storms earlier in the day.
However, southeast central KY looks to still see the least. Overall
there will be a big gradient in rainfall across the region through
the weekend. It appears that southern IN will receive 2 to 4 inches of
rain, with localized 5 inches somewhere along I 64 corridor in southern
IN.

Monday through Thursday...

Rounds of showers and storms will continue through the middle part
of next week. The boundary looks to shift a bit southward by mid
week with the area of maximum rainfall eventually shifting south
into central Kentucky as well. The models are still struggling with
how far south this rain shifts and QPF amounts into next week.
Suffice it to say that another 1-3 inches of rain will be possible
in some locations with locally higher amounts not out of the
question. Eventually (Wednesday or Thursday), the persistent pattern
will begin to break down resulting in a decrease in areal convective
coverage and amounts, but still locally heavy rain in scattered
storms could occur.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued 315 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2016

...Hydrologic and Heavy Rain/Flood Potential...

Current main stem rivers, lakes, and reservoirs are running near
normal summer levels, and significant rainfall amounts in a short
time period will be necessary to cause flood problems on these
waters. However, smaller streams and creeks will be much more
susceptible to flooding if heavy rain materializes as expected over
northern parts of the forecast area. Local flash flooding also could
result from high rainfall rates and amounts in a short time period.

Models show variability in solutions and axis of potentially heavy
rain, which complicates expected evolution over our area.
Nevertheless, several signals clearly favor high rainfall rates and
amounts across parts of the mid MS and lower OH Valleys. All models
show a multi-day persistent slightly anticyclonically curved right
entrance region of a robust upper jet streak over the region, along
with waves of surface low pressure riding northeast along the nearly
stationary synoptic front which should be set up somewhere near or
just north of the OH River. Models differ on strength of low-level
inflow with 25-40 kts at 850 mb shown, which is pretty high for mid
August.

Precip efficiency should be high too. Model soundings show deep warm
cloud depths. For instance, the GFS shows the 0 C isotherm around 15-
16 kft over the weekend. In addition, instability is not extreme,
and atmospheric moisture content and relative humidity are very high
and deep. This means that collision-coalescence will be very
effective with lower centroid storms, especially at night, leading
to high rainfall rates.

Based on model forcing and climatology, the axis of greatest
rainfall from episodic convection from Saturday afternoon through
early next week should be over parts of southern IN extending
southwest into southeastern MO, along/near the synoptic frontal
boundary. However, there is a caveat to this. Diurnally, storms can
develop a little farther south than what model QPF suggests as the
convective cold pool is what really dictates where new convective
rainfall will form and accumulate along outflow boundaries. In other
words, the effective forcing boundary during the day could end up
south of the synoptic front. This could cause areas of heavy rain
over north-central KY into the northern Bluegrass as well during the
afternoon and evening hours. Nocturnally, convection may be more
likely to refocus closer to the best low-level moisture convergence
and synoptic boundary.

Bottom line, expect periods of very heavy rainfall, at times over
the same areas. If storms/MCSs reform and train over the same
locations, then 4 to 6 inches of rain, locally higher, could fall
from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday or Wednesday of next week
over parts of south-central IN. However, if cold pool dynamics cause
the deepest convection to form at times away from the synoptic
boundary, then the highest amounts may be a bit less, but laterally
spread out across north-central KY and the northern Bluegrass. Still
looks like south-central KY will have the least amounts during the
period.
&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2016

Skies are clear across central KY early this morning. Could see some
patchy mid or upper clouds overnight with a light southeast wind,
but conditions should remain VFR with fog not expected at TAF sites.
During the day Friday, diurnal scattered cumulus clouds around 5 kft
or so will develop, although models suggest no more than isolated or
widely scattered afternoon convection if that. Therefore, will keep
TAFs dry through the period with no VCTS mentioned at this time. VFR
conditions will continue.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for KYZ023-032.

IN...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

Short Term........JDG/CG
Long Term.........JDG/TWF
Hydrology.........TWF
Aviation..........TWF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
901 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016

KYZ026>029-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-130115-
OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SCOTT-HARRISON-SPENCER-
ANDERSON-WOODFORD-FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-WASHINGTON-MERCER-
JESSAMINE-CLARK-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-
HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-
MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
901 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 /801 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF ROAD FLOODING FROM STORMS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-030>033-130115-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...NEW CASTLE
901 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 /801 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THORUGH TUESDAY APPEAR TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCHES RANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF ROAD FLOODING FROM STORMS
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

EER/RAS