Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Louisville, KY

153 
WGUS73 KLMK 300116
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
916 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

KYC079-151-300125-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-160730T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
916 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL GARRARD AND WEST CENTRAL
MADISON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
POSE A THREAT. HOWEVER, STANDING WATER MAY STILL BE PRESENT. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES. A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LAT...LON 3770 8433 3770 8452 3777 8454 3777 8452
      3781 8432

$$

SCHOETTMER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
650 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 612 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Did a quick update to increase pops across our NW CWA where moisture
convergence has increased along a boundary that is roughly along the
Ohio River. Meanwhile, a broken line segment with a bit of a cold
pool push is moving into our western CWA where some 40 mph gusts are
possible. Latest mesoanalysis shows a moderately unstable airmass
coincident with around 30 knots of effective bulk shear. Reasonable
to think that a brief severe storm is possible, but more concerned
about training storms along the boundary, as rainfall rates have
been periodically impressive. Overall, best storm coverage is an an
area that can handle a bit more precipitation, but will be
monitoring the potential for localized Flash Flooding and marginal
severe potential over the next several hours. Do expect storms to
diminish in coverage and intensity later this evening. At this
point, don't expect a widespread Flash Flood threat so don't
anticipate any headlines for now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Isolated/scattered convection is ongoing in central Kentucky, with
the greatest coverage and intensity along the Tennessee border.
Looking upstream, an upper impulse swinging through the Wabash
Valley has generated a broken line or T-storms that will head toward
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky by early evening.
Therefore we will see the focus shift from our southern zones to our
northwest zones in the next couple hours, but given recent rains,
and the humid air mass, any storms could produce localized flooding
through this evening. Also seeing just enough instability to combine
with the forcing aloft, so a few strong storms could produce gusty
winds, especially along and north of Interstate 64.

Look for POPs to diminish this evening given the loss of heating,
and mid-level drying behind the upper disturbance. However with this
much low-level moisture, cannot rule out a slight chance, so will
hang on to that POP through the overnight.

Rinse and repeat for Saturday as we remain under a broad upper trof,
and the air mass remains juicy. Expect convective coverage to be
slightly less given the slight decrease in deep moisture, as well as
the lack of dynamics to focus convection. Still look for scattered T-
storms, with the main threat still localized heavy rainfall and
flooding. Given the low convective temps in this air mass, expect
max temps to run near or just below climo, but with limited cooling
at night.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Broad upper trofiness overhead on Sunday will start to shift
eastward on Monday, but will not fully give way to the upper ridge
centered over the Southern Plains. This will leave the NW flow door
open for episodic MCS activity through at least the middle of the
week. Therefore will maintain at least a 20-30 POP for much of the
week, and while it will continue to show a diurnal focus, confidence
in the timing of POPs is still on the low side. By Wed-Thu expect
enough influence from the ridging to push temps back into the lower
90s in quite a few places. Air mass will remain quite humid, keeping
mins solidly above normal throughout.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Scattered convection continues to develop/move along a surface
boundary and ahead of a broad upper disturbance. Current radar
trends put the TAF sites in favorable scenarios for no t-storms in
the very short term, although cannot rule out a stray storm until
shortly after sunset when instability is lost. Storms should pass
close enough to SDF/BWG to warrant VCTS until 1-3Zish, but otherwise
expect VFR to prevail for much of the evening.

Once convection dies off, focus will shift to potential for lower
ceilings and vis at BWG/LEX. Upper clouds from convective complex
will complicate potential for fog at BWG, but sill think MVFR vis is
possible toward dawn when upper clouds thin and light surface winds
prevail. Think LEX could see a combo of vis/cig problems through the
overnight as well. Would expect vis reductions first, then a
transition to lower stratus toward dawn.

Scattered convection is on the table again tomorrow, but with
confidence in timing/coverage low, will hold off on any mention for
now.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
359 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-302000-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
359 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 /259 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THESE STORMS AFFECT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS. A PATTERN CHANGE MONDAY WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT VARIOUS
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS AND ANY
FLOODING.

RAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
451 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

INZ089-KYZ023-292215-
PERRY-HANCOCK-
451 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PERRY AND NORTHERN
HANCOCK COUNTIES...

AT 449 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER GRANDVIEW...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TELL CITY...HAWESVILLE...LEWISPORT...CANNELTON...AND TROY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3793 8697 3794 8692 3799 8686 3800 8681
      3802 8680 3800 8677 3803 8677 3804 8679
      3806 8677 3808 8678 3811 8673 3788 8663
      3783 8690 3784 8691 3787 8691 3788 8689
      3790 8691 3791 8694 3789 8698 3790 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 251DEG 30KT 3793 8694

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
722 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

KYZ030-034-292345-
JEFFERSON-SHELBY-
722 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND
NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

AT 722 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
SHELBYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHELBYVILLE...SIMPSONVILLE...MIDDLETOWN HEIGHTS...CHESTNUT GROVE...
L S PARK...FISHERVILLE...CONNER...MONTCLAIR...JOYES AND TODDS POINT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3830 8510 3812 8531 3820 8549 3830 8536
      3831 8533 3834 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 289DEG 11KT 3824 8535

SCHOETTMER