Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
346 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

At the surface, weak high pressure across the eastern portion of
the country. Upper ridging centered over Texas. Tropical Storm
Earl is headed toward Belize and Honduras and will not be a
significant player in this forecast package. The usual nighttime
development over the Gulf of Mexico has started in the last 30
minutes or so. There have been a couple of thunderstorm complexes
move southwest around the east end of the upper ridge across the
Mississippi coast during the post sunset hours. The second is
currently running out of steam over Lake Borgne and Lake
Pontchartrain. Most temperatures at 3 am are running in the upper
70s to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Expect today to play out much like Tuesday with convective
development struggling to develop before midday when convective
temperatures in the lower 90s are reached. Best rain chances will
be in the east, with areas west of McComb and Baton Rouge possibly
remaining completely dry. Looking back at observations from
yesterday, and considering forecast temperatures and humidity
levels today, will go with Heat Advisory for our entire CWA. Heat
index values of 108 to 112 showing up for multiple hours for much
of the area at midday. In addition, much of the area may not get
below 80 degrees this morning.

Will allow day shift to make the call on whether Heat Advisory
needs to go beyond today. Don't see any significant changes in the
pattern through Friday, other than a westward drift to the upper
ridge will give western portions of the area a little better
chance of convection than what they will see today. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

Not expecting much change in rain chances or temperatures through
the weekend. Beyond that, both ECMWF and GFS eventually take a
piece of the southern end of the east coast upper trof westward
toward Louisiana next week. This will bring better rain chances
and temperatures a few degrees less miserable to the area at some
point. ECMWF is slightly quicker to do this on Tuesday, with the
GFS pointing more at Wednesday or a little later. Will not make
much change for now. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through 12z Thursday. The
exception will be due to TSRA reducing the visibility down to IFR at
terminals mainly south of the interstate 10/12 corridor. Will use
VCTS for terminals located in these areas. Sites that do get rain
today could have some patchy fog develop overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

A few changes to occur as Earl develops and moves west. The surface
high that has been over the north central Gulf will move toward
the central gulf. An old frontal boundary that has become stalled
from the Carolinas through Georgia into the central gulf coast
will slowly move southward today and take up residence over the
northeast Gulf. The thunderstorms that moved through overnight
were located on the trailing end of this trough. The trough can be
found easier at 850mb. This will cause an increase in the number
of nocturnal thunderstorms over the gulf mainly from the Miss R.
eastward. An upper level maritime high currently located over the
850mb trough will also help the environment become much more
conducive for sh/ts development over the coming days as it will
help convective temps cool closer to Gulf water temps.

Winds will shift from southerly to southwest and finally to a
westerly direction today as the sfc high moves south and the weak
trough takes its place. This area could become disturbed over the
next several days with some thunderstorms capable of producing
strong to severe wind speeds and waterspouts not much unlike the
system from last week.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Heat Advisory.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  96  74  95  75 /  30  20  50  20
BTR  97  75  95  76 /  30  20  50  20
ASD  96  76  94  77 /  50  30  50  20
MSY  96  79  94  79 /  50  30  50  20
GPT  94  77  92  78 /  50  30  50  20
PQL  95  76  92  77 /  50  30  50  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
410 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-032115-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
410 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 7 PM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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