Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
920 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...Have sent out a quick update to the forecast. Due to
this morning sounding showing much higher moisture and instability in
place have upped POPS for much of the area. This is especially so
along the southshore where the seabreeze and lakebreeze can
collideand also about 10-40 miles north and northwest of Lakes
Pontchartrain and Maurepas, away from the lake shadow. Rain will
likely get into the New Orleans metro early, much like yesterday,
and then around the Baton Rouge metro and north of the lake and
around the Pearl River this afternoon. With the amount of
instability and moisture in place the wet microburst numbers are
on the higher end so we can not rule out a few strong to severe
microburst. /CAB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 823 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...The sounding this morning indicates a lot
of instability with mixed layer CAPE at 2100 J/KG and most
unstable much higher. Given the profile some strong downbursts are
possible from storms that can pulse up quickly. Though the
convective temp is 90 F so coverage may be slightly more than
yesterday... this could keep any one storm from getting too
strong. PW is above average at 2.01 inches and with the deep warm
cloud layer storms will be efficient rain makers. Winds are
southwest at the sfc then more westerly by 800 mb but remain
light. The flow is northeasterly by 600 mb through the rest of the
profile.

Krautmann

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

SHORT TERM...Latest surface analysis continue to show a ridge of
high pressure Southeast United States and north half of Gulf of
Mexico. Light south flow was noted over Texas and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Precipitable water plots revealed 1.7 to 1.8
inches along the Upper Texas Coast to Florida peninsula with
values decreasing to 1.5 inches up to the Mid South. Upper air
analysis showed a high over the southwest CONUS, a short wave
from central Missouri to east Oklahoma, another wave over western
Kansas and a weak trough axis from Georgia to north central Gulf
of Mexico.

Upper level high will remain over southwest CONUS as the two waves
track east and southeast through Saturday. This will allow the
weak trough axis to retrograde west of the forecast area today
through Friday and maintain 30 to 50 pops each day through
Saturday. The highest rain chances will be across the southern
half of the CWA especially near the southshore where the seabreeze
and lakebreeze boundaries collide. As for strong/severe, not
anticipating much in the way of that. 18

LONG TERM...

Medium range models continue to suggest the middle portions of
the country baking next week while we could be right on the edge
of decent rain chances. High over southeast CONUS is expected to
build to the east over towards the Southern Plains and Mid-
Mississippi Valley later this weekend and our trough axis pushes
west under the ridge/high into Mexico. Sinking air from the high
and increased heights will decrease coverage of convection and
allow temps to rise at the same time. Northern zones will see less
convection than the coast. As a result, Southwest Mississippi and
East Central Louisiana could see highs in the mid to upper 90s
next week. 18

&&

.AVIATION...Widely scattered convection is continuing overnight
and is possible throughout the day on Wednesday as well. Coverage
is likely to be similar to what was seen on Tuesday. Overall, VFR
conditions are expected at all of the terminals through the entire
forecast period outside of any shower and thunderstorm
development. 98/SO

&&

.MARINE...Quiet conditions will persist across the coastal
waters through the week as high pressure sets up east of Florida
and dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A general onshore wind of 5 to
10 knots can be expected along with seas of 1 to 2 feet. Scattered
storms will be the main concern all week. These storms could
produce brief periods of gusty winds, higher waves, lightning, and
possibly waterspouts. 98/SO

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

98/SO

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  74  94  74 /  50  20  40  20
BTR  94  74  93  74 /  60  20  50  20
ASD  92  74  93  74 /  50  20  50  20
MSY  91  78  91  78 /  60  20  50  20
GPT  91  76  89  75 /  50  20  40  20
PQL  91  75  90  74 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1109 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-150415-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1109 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING... AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
949 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 NNE YSCLOSKEY         29.87N 89.67W
07/13/2016  M44.00 MPH       ST. BERNARD        LA   C-MAN STATION

            38 KNOT/44 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT SHELL BEACH C-MAN
            STATION /SHBL1/.

&&

ANSORGE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1202 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

MSZ080-141730-
HANCOCK-
1202 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY...

AT 1201 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STENNIS SPACE
CENTER...OR 8 MILES WEST OF DIAMONDHEAD. THE STORM IS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...KILN...SHORELINE PARK AND
STENNIS SPACE CENTER.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3061 8938 3037 8936 3033 8938 3034 8935
      3031 8935 3024 8952 3039 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 250DEG 3KT 3036 8951

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