Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1107 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR AREAS THAT WERE IN LINE
FOR POSSIBLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. SINCE
THAT TIME...RADAR TRENDS ARE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AND THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE ALSO GREATLY DOWNPLAYING THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY THE
COUPLED UPPER JET PATTERN...REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...SO AM HESITANT TO
DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. REGARDING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...IT STILL APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE THAT IS KEEPING THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE WATER...HOWEVER SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DO NOT
HAVE AS MUCH COMPETITION AND COULD GET STRONG ENOUGH FOR BRIEF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.

IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO NOT ORGANIZE INTO ANY POTENTIALLY TRAINING BANDS WITH
HIGH REFLECTIVITY...IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE
CANCELLED EARLY. OVERALL TRENDS OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY AROUND SUNSET STILL LOOK
GOOD...BUT LATER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO VFR TO IFR REMAIN PROBLEMATIC
FOR CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF FORECASTS TODAY...SO AMENDMENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF RESTRICTED VSBYS IN SHRA/FEW TSRA AND SCATTERED LOWER CIGS.
OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
COVERAGE OF THE SHRA/TSRA DECREASES. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN
SOME AREAS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 06Z TO 14Z MONDAY
MORNING...DEPENDING QUITE A BIT ON WHETHER CIGS ABOVE 010 CLEAR
OUT AND/OR OTHER CIGS BELOW 010 BUILD DOWN TOWARDS THE GROUND.
22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH
             MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016/

SYNOPSIS...L/W TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHES SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. SW FLOW IS ALOFT FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE SERN CONUS AND
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. OLD BNDRY DRAPED RIGHT ACROSS THE
COAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AND THE SRN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ACROSS
SELA AND JUST INTO THE GULF. /CAB/

SHORT TERM...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 5Z AS LIFT BEGAN TO
INCREASE.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS CONVECTION TODAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES
IN THINKING AS WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-55 CORRIDOR BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.

AS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IT IS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THAT
WILL SEE MORE INGREDIENTS LINE UP. FIRST WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LL
JET WHICH COULD APPROACH 35-40 KTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA B/T 12 AND 18Z THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION A MID LVL JET OF
40-55 KTS WILL WORK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
COMBINE THAT WITH RICH H85 THETA E AIR PUMPING INTO THE SAME REGION
AND PWS OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES SHOULD YIELD SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCTION. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE PARALLEL TO THE STALLED
BNDRY AND THIS COULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF STORMS WITH GREATEST
CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE AND COASTAL MS.

AS FOR STRONG/SEVERE...CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE STORM OR TWO ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE STRONG TO DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BUT AS ALWAYS IT DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO
GET A QUICK SPIN UP DOWN HERE. OVERALL NOT MUCH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT A GOOD BIT OF ELEVLATED INSTABILITY.
CONCERN IS IF THE BNDRY CAN DRIFT FURTHER NORTH...THEN SOUTH OF THAT
BNDRY STORMS COULD BECOME ROOTED TO THE SFC. AGAIN IF THAT HAPPENS
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.

AS FOR WHEN CONVECTION WILL END...STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY BEGIN
TO SHUT OFF THIS AFTN IN THE NW AND COULD DO SO QUICKLY. AS
MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COULD BEGIN AROUND
19/20Z IN THE FAR NW WITH DOWNGLIDE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AROUND 00-
01Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR CLOSE TO THE SAME TIME AND ONCE THIS
HAPPENS ALL PRECIP SHOULD SHUT DOWN. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY
BE RAIN FREE BY 3Z TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.

MON AND INTO TUE SHOULD BE QUIET WITH COOLER TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS HOWEVER MDLS ARE TRYING TO BRING SOME SHRA BACK INTO THE
REGION LATE TUE AS RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP AND THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
TAKING SHAPE OUT WEST. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PERIOD
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BUT THEY DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG AND DEEPEN THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PAC NW TWRDS NV AND UT. THIS AMPLIFIES
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS PUTTING THE REGION BACK UNDER SW FLOW
AND THUS TAPPING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND THE PAC MOISTURE. THIS
WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA BACK INTO THE AREA WED AND THU. PROBLEMS
BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITH FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN ISSUE IS
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH. IF IT BREAKS AND CLOSES
OFF FROM THE MAIN L/W WE WILL DRY OUT FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE
MOVE UNDER WEAK WNW FLOW AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. IF THE
BASE DOESNT BREAK OFF AND THE L/W TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE THROUGH WHILE THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES FRI AND
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THAT ALL SAID OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW FOR THE BACK END OF THE FCST SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MDLS SHOWING LOW END POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS LATE SAT. THE SAME FOR TEMPS AS WE WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE COLDER GFS AND WARMER ECMWF. /CAB/

AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY DROPPING TO LIFR AT SOME
TERMINAL AND SHOULD SPREAD TO ALL SITES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL DROP VISIBILITIES AS WELL. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND FOG MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. /MEFFER/

MARINE...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
CELLS TO PRODUCE WIND GUST IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT EAST LATE MORNING/INTO THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT
ELEVATED SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MONDAY
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
VERY TIGHT...SO MAY ONLY BRIEFLY REACH SCS CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY RELAX BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER IN TO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RISE POSSIBLY TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /MEFFER/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
             MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
             LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  53  71  50 / 100  10   0   0
BTR  78  56  74  53 / 100  10   0   0
ASD  76  59  74  55 / 100  10   0   0
MSY  76  61  72  58 / 100  10   0   0
GPT  74  61  74  56 / 100  20   0   0
PQL  74  60  75  54 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ040-
     057>065-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

LAZ036-MSZ068>071-271800-
EAST FELICIANA LA-PIKE MS-WALTHALL MS-AMITE MS-WILKINSON MS-
1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1220 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GILLSBERG...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIBERTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCCOMB...LIBERTY...MAGNOLIA...SUMMIT...CENTREVILLE...WILSON...NORWOOD...
GILLSBERG...FELPS...SALEM AND MCCOMB AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. HIGH RAINFALL
RATES CAN LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY ALONG AREA ROADWAYS...INCLUDING INTERSTATES 10 AND 55. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3120 9008 3100 9072 3100 9083 3096 9085
      3087 9112 3109 9120 3135 9064 3135 9016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 241DEG 31KT 3111 9067

95/DM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
129 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

LAZ040-062-MSZ080-271915-
ORLEANS LA-ST. TAMMANY LA-HANCOCK MS-
129 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 127 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM LACOMBE TO 9 MILES WEST OF EAST NEW ORLEANS.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SLIDELL...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...PEARL RIVER...LACOMBE...
KILN...PEARLINGTON...LAKE CATHERINE...SHORELINE PARK...STENNIS SPACE
CENTER AND SLIDELL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH RAINFALL
RATES COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY ALONG AREA ROADWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATES 10...12 AND
59. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING IN THE AREA.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3025 8942 3018 8946 3019 8946 3018 8955
      3015 8959 3017 8958 3018 8973 3015 8963
      3008 8968 3008 8994 3013 8986 3010 8979
      3017 8974 3025 8987 3026 8999 3038 8997
      3053 8934 3033 8938 3031 8933
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 255DEG 44KT 3030 8994 3010 9008

95/DM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
208 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

MSZ080>082-272000-
JACKSON MS-HANCOCK MS-HARRISON MS-
208 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 207 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BAY ST. LOUIS...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GULFPORT...BILOXI...OCEAN SPRINGS...LONG BEACH...MOSS POINT...BAY ST.
LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...ST. MARTIN...ESCATAWPA...GAUTIER...
D'IBERVILLE...GULF HILLS...GULF PARK ESTATES...KILN...HICKORY HILLS...
SHORELINE PARK...HELENA...LATIMER AND VANCLEAVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. HIGH RAINFALL
RATES COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3037 8859 3034 8870 3037 8882 3043 8885
      3043 8899 3042 8901 3040 8886 3037 8906
      3030 8928 3036 8928 3037 8935 3033 8938
      3034 8934 3031 8933 3022 8943 3042 8945
      3051 8850 3032 8848
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 264DEG 53KT 3029 8935

95/DM

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