Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
829 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. FREEZING LEVEL IS LOWER SINCE
THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 700 FEET AND IS CURRENTLY AT 12000 FEET. THE
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS 10700 FEET. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A
HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL
DOES NOT LOOK AS LIKELY GIVEN LOW DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.36 INCHES IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AND NEAR THE RECORD VALUE FOR THIS DATE/TIME. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF ATMOSPHERE WITH A STORM MOTION
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE PER WPC MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 090.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT REACHING 19.9 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND BURSTING NEAR OCEAN SPRINGS 62 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE
OFFICE. THE ASCENT LASTED 98 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MESSY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A PESKY STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WE HAD SOME SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOP THIS MORNING THAT PRODUCED GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL. SINCE THEN
MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. AS LONG AS THIS
BOUNDARY IS OVER THE AREA RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE
DEVELOPMENT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY AND WILL PUT AN END TO THE RAINFALL FINALLY. THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. THERE WILL BE SOME COOL...ACTUALLY COLD MORNINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHSHORE. SOME SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MORNING. DAY TIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE GOING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS BOTH MODELS POINT
TO A FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATER ON NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME OF
THESE BECOMING SEVERE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MODERATE RIVER FLOODING.
             MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  61  39  61 /  70  30  10   0
BTR  60  64  41  63 /  70  50  10   0
ASD  63  69  43  65 /  70  60  10   0
MSY  63  68  48  64 /  70  60  10   0
GPT  65  70  44  64 /  70  70  10   0
PQL  63  71  44  64 /  70  80  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
620 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-191130-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
620 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AT TIMES. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GENERALLY DIME TO GOLF BALL IN
DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

ADDITIONALLY...RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
OR PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS THAT HAVE SATURATED GROUND.

SEVERAL RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD. SEE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WIL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED FROST IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE MID 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

24/RR

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