Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISSCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
445 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY HAS MEANDERED OVER THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COMBINE THAT WITH THE WEAK FORCING...DAYTIME
HEATING...AND VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND WE HAVE SEEN SCT TSRA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
HAVE PRODUCED HAIL WITH SOME AS LARGE AS BASEBALLS EARLIER TODAY.

THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS FCST. FIRST IS TONIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND SEVERITY. THE OTHER ISSUE
TOMORROW...COVERAGE...TIMING...AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. FIRST TONIGHT...SVR TSRA WATCH IS VALID TILL 1Z BUT A
LINE OF TSRA SOME POSSIBLY SVR COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THE STORMS CURRENTLY IN CNTRL/NRN LA COULD EVOLVE AND
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SOMETIME B/T
00Z AND 03Z. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING
TREND AND IF THIS CONTINUES THEY MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION. IF
THIS DOES HAPPEN STORMS MAY REFIRE OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 7Z
AS A DISTURBANCE NOTED IN WV MOVES OUT OF THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX
AND APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE SECOND SOLN OCCURS SEVERE ARE
POSSIBLE AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE (7.5
C/KM) COMBINED WITH RICH LL MOISTURE. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
AGAIN BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.

AS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A LOT COULD REALLY DEPEND ON
WHAT OCCURS TONIGHT. THE BNDRY WILL STILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION AND IF THE CONVECTION IS MORE SO THIS EVNG THEN SHRA AND TSRA
COULD DEVELOP EARLY IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER AND LIFT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER...IF A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE WORKED OVER
AND MAY TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TO RECOVER. EITHER WAY STILL
EXPECT NUM SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA BY AT LEAST LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING THE SVR THREAT LIKE TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THIS IS STILL VERY MUCH A CONCERN AND
STILL LOOKING FOR OVERALL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF STORMS CAN EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO
A LINE THIS EVNG OR OVERNIGHT WHERE COLD POOLING WOULD HELP THIS
LINE MOVE SOUTH. CONCERN IS IF STORMS REMAIN CELLULAR...THEY COULD
THEN END UP TRAINING OVER SOME AREAS AND COULD LEAD TO A QUICK 1-2
INCH TOTALS TONIGHT POSSIBLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR.
AS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT PINPOINTING ANY LOCATION IS
DIFFICULT BUT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. IF THIS FALLS OVER AREAS STILL DEALING WITH
HIGH WATER THEN RUNOFF COULD LEAD TO SO ISSUES QUICKLY.

SAT...DEEP NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
MID MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
THIS WILL FINALLY SEND A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
POSSIBLY LATE SAT MORNING. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH WE SHOULD QUICKLY
BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN. HIGHS ON SAT COULD BE
SET BY MIDDAY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING STEADILY DURING THE
AFTN.

.LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH THU...OVERALL QUIET AND MUCH COOLER TO
START. UNDER NW FLOW HIGHS ON SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
50S. H85 TEMPS COULD DROP TO -2 TO -4 AND THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH SUNLIGHT WE HAVE
NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT. AS FOR LOWS SUN
NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. COMBINE THAT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WE WILL SEE
THE COLDEST MORNING WE HAVE HAD SINCE LATE FEB.

MON THROUGH WED HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL SHIFT EAST AND NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ALLOWING THE REGION TO MODERATE BUT KEEPING
THE AREA RAIN FREE. HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK THERE
ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY
REGION. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. STRONG
NRLY WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE MIXING DOWN
THANKS TO STRONG CAA.  ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE EASING. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION EXPECTING MVFR CONDTIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS. THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL POSSIBLY BRINGING VSBYS DOWN TO 3-5SM
FROM AROUND 9Z TILL 13Z.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING.
             SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TILL 1Z

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  75  58  64 /  60  80  50  40
BTR  65  77  61  65 /  60  80  60  40
ASD  65  75  63  68 /  60  80  70  60
MSY  66  77  63  69 /  50  80  70  60
GPT  65  73  64  69 /  60  80  70  60
PQL  64  74  63  70 /  50  80  70  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-172130-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
417 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
RESULT.

NUMEROUS RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD. FOR DETAILED INFORMATION CONSULT
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FOR DETAILED INFORMATION
CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS
ALIGN...SOME OF THE FLOOD AREAS MAY BE EXPANDED OR EXTENDED FOR
LONGER DURATION.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SCATTERED FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12 MONDAY
MORNING AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NO LONGER REQUIRED AT THIS TIME BUT RIVER
LEVEL READINGS FROM FLOOD AREAS ARE STILL REQUESTED.

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