Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
728 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MORNING SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION UP TO 1500 FEET IS THE
ONLY SUBSTANTIAL STABLE LAYER ON THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING. WITH
GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THIS LAYER WILL EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED
AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS. INSTABILITY AS
MEASURED BY MLCAPE IS AROUND 600 J/KG WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1050 J/KG
AND LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AROUND 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM ABOVE THE
INVERSION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALREADY GOOD WITH BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR PRESENT WITH THE 1KM WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH AT 35 KNOTS AND 6KM WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 45 KNOTS. SRH
0-1KM IS OVER 300 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM IS AROUND 380 M2/S2. THE LAST
TWO STATEMENTS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS AND ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. A HAIL THREAT ALSO EXISTS WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND
9250 FEET AND THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT AROUND 8200 FEET. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IS NOT AS HIGH AT THIS TIME
WITH A DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 700 J/KG. OVERALL MEAN STORM MOTION
IS FROM 235 /SOUTHWEST/ AT 36 KNOTS. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 130
KNOTS AT 40000 FEET WAS OBSERVED AS WE ARE CURRENTLY ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF A JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO EVALUATE THE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL
OCCUR AS SPC HAS REQUESTED A SPECIAL RELEASE AROUND 18Z.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT REACHING 20 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND AFTER 103 MINUTES OF ASCENT. THE BALLOON TRAVELED 67 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016/

SHORT TERM...

THE NEXT 18 HOURS WILL SEE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS. THIS TROUGH
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND SHOULD
BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A
INCREASINGLY WARM AND BUOYANT AIRMASS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARMING IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
WARM AND BUOYANT AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
OMEGA AND RESULTANT LIFT OVERSPREADING THE REGION TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY DIFLUENT
FLOW REGIME ALOFT AND A FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A
100+ KNOT JET STREAK CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH. THIS
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT QUITE LOOK PRIMED
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING AS CAPE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ANOTHER BAND
OF CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A DRY LINE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY FORMING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DRY LINE SHOULD QUICKLY
RACE TO THE EAST AT AROUND THE SAME SPEED AS THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN SOMETIME AROUND NOON BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST FORCING AND GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR...AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. DYNAMIC
FORCING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOUTH OF I-10...AND ONLY HAVE
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS. THE RAIN THREAT SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS THE DRY LINE PUSHES INTO
ALABAMA AND FLORIDA AND STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
OVERTAKES THE AREA.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO BE GREATEST NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR...WHERE SPEED SHEAR...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND MLCAPE
VALUES ARE MAXIMIZED. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP...AND A LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF ONLY 8200 FEET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
HAIL FORMATION IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HELICITY VALUES OF 250
M2/S2 OR HIGHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY SUSTAINED
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO ROTATE AND TAKE ON SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS. THUS...A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES FORMING WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
BY TOMORROW MORNING...AS DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVERTAKE THE GULF SOUTH. THIS SAME GENERAL
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
COOL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
SINKING AIR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM EVEN
FURTHER. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ONLY DIP INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
ADVECTION FOG TO DEVELOP AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THE BIGGEST CAVEAT WILL BE JUST HOW STRONG WINDS ARE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF WINDS FALL TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH...ADVECTION FOG COULD BE VERY LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST YET...DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE.

AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS ARE VFR WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE SCT-BKN040...EXCEPT
OVC010 AT KMCB. CONVECTION DEVELOPING STEADILY FROM KMCB TO KLFT
WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO KBTR. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR BASED DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO WIND SHIFT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CAVOK SHORTLY AFTER WIND
SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST. 24/RR

MARINE...

SOME GRADIENT RESPONSE THIS MORNING HAS WINDS IN THE 15-
20KT RANGE THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER EAST TEXAS EJECTS NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WINDS SHOULD LESSEN
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WHILE VEERING SOUTHWEST. LOW WILL THEN
SLINGSHOT A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH GULF THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT PRE-FRONTAL
APPEARS STRONGER THAN POST-FRONTAL WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE WINDS TO JUST MODERATE LEVELS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SETTLE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SURFACE HIGH RIDGES
WITH BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER AND
             MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING.
 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  40  71  43 /  90  20   0   0
BTR  72  45  73  45 /  80  20   0   0
ASD  71  44  71  45 /  80  30  10   0
MSY  71  47  68  50 /  70  20   0   0
GPT  68  44  67  45 /  70  40  10   0
PQL  69  40  69  43 /  60  50  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-152200-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
351 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A
SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING...SETTLING A BIT LATER
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND REMAIN ALERT TO THE WEATHER SITUATION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

24/RR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1254 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

LAZ059>061-151930-
UPPER LAFOURCHE LA-UPPER JEFFERSON LA-ST. CHARLES LA-
1254 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAFOURCHE...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISHES UNTIL
130 PM CST...

AT 1254 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF LAROSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AVONDALE...MARRERO...LAROSE...WESTWEGO...JEAN LAFITTE...BARATARIA...
ESTELLE...LAFITTE AND BRIDGE CITY.

LAT...LON 2972 9047 2994 9014 2975 9006 2974 9007
      2973 9006 2971 9005 2957 9036
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 239DEG 32KT 2969 9035

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1257 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     HAIL             6 W ST. FRANCISVILLE    30.78N 91.48W
02/15/2016  E1.00 INCH       WEST FELICIANA     LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAM OPERATOR RELAYED A REPORT OF 1 INCH HAIL AND
            ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 MPH.

&&

MEFFERSO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
104 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

LAZ040-MSZ077-080-081-151930-
ST. TAMMANY LA-PEARL RIVER MS-HANCOCK MS-HARRISON MS-
104 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY
PARISH...SOUTHEASTERN PEARL RIVER...NORTHWESTERN HARRISON AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CST...

AT 104 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
STENNIS SPACE CENTER...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF PICAYUNE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PICAYUNE...PEARL RIVER...KILN...STENNIS SPACE CENTER AND PEARLINGTON.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3071 8934 3065 8934 3065 8925 3063 8922
      3023 8952 3033 8979 3079 8947
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 216DEG 37KT 3039 8963

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
114 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             SLAUGHTER               30.72N 91.14W
02/15/2016  E1.75 INCH       EAST FELICIANA     LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN SLAUGHTER. RELAYED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

DMANNING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
125 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

LAZ040-MSZ080-081-152015-
ST. TAMMANY LA-HANCOCK MS-HARRISON MS-
125 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY
PARISH...NORTHWESTERN HARRISON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM
CST...

AT 125 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PEARLINGTON...OR NEAR SLIDELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SLIDELL...DIAMONDHEAD...KILN...PEARLINGTON...STENNIS SPACE CENTER...
SHORELINE PARK AND LYMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3037 8933 3037 8935 3016 8963 3018 8970
      3027 8980 3052 8957 3052 8954 3054 8954
      3065 8944 3065 8924 3066 8924 3054 8910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 225DEG 36KT 3026 8967

ANSORGE