Small Craft Advisory 20, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A 1024MB HIGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS
AND WEST GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE WAS LOCATED
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTH ARKANSAS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
NEW MEXICO. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DISPLAYED WHAT
WE ALREADY KNOW...DRY AIR MASS OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH VALUES OF 0.2 TO 0.5 INCH. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL ZONES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS WILL
REBOUND ABOUT 30M TODAY. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
SAME THICKNESS WILL RESPOND DOWN ABOUT 40 TO 50M OVERNIGHT. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS VERY MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND TRACK
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ERGO...BELOW NORM TEMPS WILL STAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.

A DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TO THE
AREA MONDAY. THUS...SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT MONDAY. A
VIGOROUS PACIFIC STORM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THIS TROUGH IS COMING IN SHARP AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRINGING THE THREAT OF
STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED RAIN CHANCE AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. WILL
LINGER SOME RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL SURGING SOUTH AND EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TODAY TONIGHT ANOTHER LITTLE
SURGE OF CAA AND DECENT SFC PRESSURE RISES WILL CAUSE OFFSHORE WINDS
TO RAMP UP AGAIN AND AND SCY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. AFTER FRIDAY
MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE
DOES RECOMMENCE SUN AS THE CNTR OF THE HIGH PUSHES OVER FL AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
COAST LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODE ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS DURING THE DAY TUE. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KNEW UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. /11/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....ORANGE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  66  36  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  64  37  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  65  45  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  65  41  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  64  36  58  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
435 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-252245-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
435 AM CST THU FEB 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS WILL RELAX TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER ALL BUT THE OUTER WATERS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS AREAS WILL LIKELY STILL SEE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ONCE
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS AS OFFSHORE FLOW PICKS BACK UP
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A VERY POTENT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CAB

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