Alert archive / Louisiana / River Flood Warnings in 2016

River Flood Warning 89, NWS New Orleans, LA

August 11, 2016Saint Helena Parish, Louisiana

NWS New Orleans, LA issued this river flood warning at Aug 11, 2016, 10:26 AM CDT for Saint Helena Parish, Louisiana. It took effect at Aug 12, 2016, 4:38 AM CDT. It was in force for 62 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 11, 2016, 10:26 AM CDT (15:26 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 12, 2016, 4:38 AM CDT
Expired
Aug 14, 2016, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
62 hr
Issued by
NWS New Orleans, LA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Saint Helena Parish, LA

The river

Written for the forecast point Tickfaw River at Liverpool (LPOL1).

Action stage
9 ft
Minor stage
9 ft
Moderate stage
11 ft
Major stage
12 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07375800, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

048 
WGUS44 KLIX 111526
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1026 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...The National Weather Service in New Orleans Baton Rouge has issued
a flood warning for the following rivers in Louisiana... 

The Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-122126-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FL.W.0089.160814T0600Z-160814T1800Z/
/LPOL1.1.ER.160814T0600Z.160814T0600Z.160814T1200Z.NO/
1026 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

The National Weather Service in New Orleans/Baton Rouge has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* from late Saturday night to Sunday afternoon.
* At 10:15 AM Thursday the stage was 1.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising until cresting at
  or near flood stage by early Sunday morning. The river is expected to
  fall below flood stage by late Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Pastures and crop land adjacent to the river 
  will flood. Rural areas near the river will be threatened with 
  flooding.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061

&&

LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061




$$
11 follow-up statements
979 
WGUS84 KLIX 120144
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
844 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-130744-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.160813T0000Z-160813T1200Z/
/LPOL1.1.ER.160813T0000Z.160813T0000Z.160813T0600Z.NO/
844 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* from Friday evening to Saturday morning.
* At  8:15 PM Thursday the stage was 3.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Pastures and crop land adjacent to the river 
  will flood. Rural areas near the river will be threatened with 
  flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061




$$
458 
WGUS44 KLIX 120940
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
439 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the 
following rivers in Louisiana...

  The Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-131539-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.160812T0938Z-160814T1600Z/
/LPOL1.2.ER.160812T0743Z.160813T0600Z.160814T1000Z.NR/
439 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for  
  The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* until Sunday morning.
* At 4:15 AM Friday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.5 feet by 
  after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Low lying roads and buildings near the river
  along with pasture and crop land will flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Pastures and crop land adjacent to the river 
  will flood. Rural areas near the river will be threatened with 
  flooding.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061

$$
072 
WGUS44 KLIX 121134
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Observed Flooding Changed from Moderate to Major Severity for the 
following river in Louisiana...

The Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-131734-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-160814T1600Z/
/LPOL1.3.ER.160812T0743Z.160812T1115Z.160814T1000Z.NR/
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Observed flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* until Sunday morning.
* At 6:15 AM Friday the stage was 12.9 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising until cresting 
  at around 13.5 feet by around 1pm this afternoon.  The river is 
  expected to fall below flood stage by late Saturday night.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...There will be major flooding of roads and 
  buildings. Mill Creek will back up causing flooding north of 
  Louisiana Highway 38. Evacuation is recommended for persons east of
  Louisiana Highway 43 from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Low lying roads and buildings near the river
  along with pasture and crop land will flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Pastures and crop land adjacent to the river 
  will flood. Rural areas near the river will be threatened with 
  flooding.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061

&&

LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061




$$
539 
WGUS44 KLIX 121209
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
709 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Observed Flooding Changed from Major to Major Severity for the 
following rivers in Louisiana...

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Major to Record Severity for the 
following rivers in Louisiana...

The Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-131809-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-160814T1600Z/
/LPOL1.3.ER.160812T0743Z.160812T1500Z.160814T1000Z.NR/
709 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Forecast flooding increased from Major to Record severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* until Sunday morning.
* At  6:15 AM Friday the stage was 12.9 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising until cresting 
  at around 13.5 feet by around 1pm this afternoon.  The river is 
  expected to fall below flood stage by late Saturday night.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Major flooding of the river basin will 
  occur. There will be major flooding of roads and buildings. Mill 
  Creek will back up causing flooding north of Louisiana Highway 38. 
  Evacuation is recommended for persons east of Louisiana Highway 43 
  from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier. In 1983, 12,800 acres 
  were inundated during record flooding.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...There will be major flooding of roads and 
  buildings. Mill Creek will back up causing flooding north of 
  Louisiana Highway 38. Evacuation is recommended for persons east of
  Louisiana Highway 43 from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Low lying roads and buildings near the river
  along with pasture and crop land will flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Pastures and crop land adjacent to the river 
  will flood. Rural areas near the river will be threatened with 
  flooding.


&&
 
LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061

&&

LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061




$$
665 
WGUS84 KLIX 121822
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
122 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-140022-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-160815T1352Z/
/LPOL1.3.ER.160812T0743Z.160813T1800Z.160815T0752Z.NR/
122 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* until Monday morning.
* At 12:15 PM Friday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.5 feet by 
  tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Major flooding of the river basin will 
  occur. There will be major flooding of roads and buildings. Mill 
  Creek will back up causing flooding north of Louisiana Highway 38. 
  Evacuation is recommended for persons east of Louisiana Highway 43 
  from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier. In 1983, 12,800 acres 
  were inundated during record flooding.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...There will be major flooding of roads and 
  buildings. Mill Creek will back up causing flooding north of 
  Louisiana Highway 38. Evacuation is recommended for persons east of
  Louisiana Highway 43 from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Low lying roads and buildings near the river
  along with pasture and crop land will flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Pastures and crop land adjacent to the river 
  will flood. Rural areas near the river will be threatened with 
  flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061




$$
501 
WGUS84 KLIX 122050
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
350 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish 
  
  Tickfaw River Near Montpelier affecting St. Helena Parish

  Tickfaw River Near Holden affecting Livingston Parish 

   

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-140250-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LPOL1.3.ER.160812T0743Z.160813T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
350 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* until further notice.
* At  3:15 PM Friday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.5 feet by 
  tomorrow evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Major flooding of the river basin will 
  occur. There will be major flooding of roads and buildings. Mill 
  Creek will back up causing flooding north of Louisiana Highway 38. 
  Evacuation is recommended for persons east of Louisiana Highway 43 
  from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier. In 1983, 12,800 acres 
  were inundated during record flooding.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...There will be major flooding of roads and 
  buildings. Mill Creek will back up causing flooding north of 
  Louisiana Highway 38. Evacuation is recommended for persons east of
  Louisiana Highway 43 from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Low lying roads and buildings near the river
  along with pasture and crop land will flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Pastures and crop land adjacent to the river 
  will flood. Rural areas near the river will be threatened with 
  flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061




$$

LAC063-140250-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HOLL1.3.ER.160812T1805Z.160816T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
350 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Holden.
* until further notice.
* At  2:45 PM Friday the stage was 15.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 27.0 feet by 
  Monday evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Water will reach the under carriage of the 
  Highway 190 bridge. The bridge will be in danger of structural 
  damage as debris is carried downstream in strong, swift current. 
  Access roads will be impassable.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Many secondary roads will be under water and
  closed due to high water.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Property in low areas along the river from 
  Interstate 12 north to Parish Road 1036 will flood.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Wooded areas in the vicinity of the Highway 
  190 bridge will be inundated.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Tickfaw State Park, located downstream of 
  the Holden gage, will close.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flooding will expand downstream in the 
  Tickfaw State Park.  All campgrounds will close. 
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Areas downstream in the Tickfaw State Park 
  will begin to flood, primarily in the Tent Area.


&&

LAT...LON 3062 9059 3062 9065 3051 9069 3051 9061




$$

LAC091-140250-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MONL1.3.ER.160812T1443Z.160813T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
350 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Montpelier.
* until further notice.
* At  3:30 PM Friday the stage was 25.3 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 28.0 feet by 
  tomorrow early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At 26.5 feet...The roadway at the center span of the 
  Highway 16 bridge will be under water and the bridge closed. 
  Highway 16 will likely be closed. Secondary roads within a mile of 
  the river will be under water and closed to traffic.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...At 20 feet water will reach the 
  undercarriage of the Highway 16 bridge. Approaches to the bridge 
  will be under water. Highway 16 will likely be closed. Secondary 
  roads within a mile of the river will be under water and closed to 
  traffic.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The river channel will expand to about one 
  half mile wide for several miles downstream from Montpelier. 
  Secondary roads west of Louisiana Highway 43 will be under water 
  and likely to be closed to traffic. Woodlands and farmland near the
  river will remain inundated.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Woodlands and farmland near the river will 
  be inundated. Livestock and farm equipment should be moved to 
  higher ground.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...The low banks will overflow threatening 
  commercial interests near the river with flooding.
* Impact...At 12.5 feet...Forestry and sand and gravel operations will
  be curtailed.


&&

LAT...LON 3070 9061 3078 9067 3062 9065 3062 9059




$$
470 
WGUS84 KLIX 130134
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
834 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish 

  Tickfaw River Near Holden affecting Livingston Parish 

  Tickfaw River Near Montpelier affecting St. Helena Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-140734-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-160816T0800Z/
/LPOL1.3.ER.160812T0743Z.160813T0045Z.160816T0200Z.NR/
834 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* until late Monday night.
* At  8:15 PM Friday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.0 feet by 
  tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage Monday 
  before midnight.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Major flooding of the river basin will 
  occur. There will be major flooding of roads and buildings. Mill 
  Creek will back up causing flooding north of Louisiana Highway 38. 
  Evacuation is recommended for persons east of Louisiana Highway 43 
  from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier. In 1983, 12,800 acres 
  were inundated during record flooding.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...There will be major flooding of roads and 
  buildings. Mill Creek will back up causing flooding north of 
  Louisiana Highway 38. Evacuation is recommended for persons east of
  Louisiana Highway 43 from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Low lying roads and buildings near the river
  along with pasture and crop land will flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Pastures and crop land adjacent to the river 
  will flood. Rural areas near the river will be threatened with 
  flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061




$$

LAC063-140733-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HOLL1.3.ER.160812T1805Z.160815T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
834 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Holden.
* until further notice.
* At  7:45 PM Friday the stage was 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 25.0 feet by 
  Monday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Water will reach the under carriage of the 
  Highway 190 bridge. The bridge will be in danger of structural 
  damage as debris is carried downstream in strong, swift current. 
  Access roads will be impassable.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Many secondary roads will be under water and
  closed due to high water.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Property in low areas along the river from 
  Interstate 12 north to Parish Road 1036 will flood.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Wooded areas in the vicinity of the Highway 
  190 bridge will be inundated.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Tickfaw State Park, located downstream of 
  the Holden gage, will close.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flooding will expand downstream in the 
  Tickfaw State Park.  All campgrounds will close. 
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Areas downstream in the Tickfaw State Park 
  will begin to flood, primarily in the Tent Area.


&&

LAT...LON 3062 9059 3062 9065 3051 9069 3051 9061




$$

LAC091-140733-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MONL1.3.ER.160812T1443Z.160812T2230Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
834 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Montpelier.
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 PM Friday the stage was 25.7 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to fall to a stage
  of 23.6 feet by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...At 20 feet water will reach the 
  undercarriage of the Highway 16 bridge. Approaches to the bridge 
  will be under water. Highway 16 will likely be closed. Secondary 
  roads within a mile of the river will be under water and closed to 
  traffic.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The river channel will expand to about one 
  half mile wide for several miles downstream from Montpelier. 
  Secondary roads west of Louisiana Highway 43 will be under water 
  and likely to be closed to traffic. Woodlands and farmland near the
  river will remain inundated.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Woodlands and farmland near the river will 
  be inundated. Livestock and farm equipment should be moved to 
  higher ground.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...The low banks will overflow threatening 
  commercial interests near the river with flooding.
* Impact...At 12.5 feet...Forestry and sand and gravel operations will
  be curtailed.


&&

LAT...LON 3070 9061 3078 9067 3062 9065 3062 9059




$$
083 
WGUS84 KLIX 130919
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
418 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish 

  Tickfaw River Near Holden affecting Livingston Parish 

  Tickfaw River Near Montpelier affecting St. Helena Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-141518-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LPOL1.3.ER.160812T0743Z.160813T0045Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
418 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* until further notice.
* At  3:15 AM Saturday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 14.0 feet by 
  after midnight tomorrow then begin falling.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Major flooding of the river basin will 
  occur. There will be major flooding of roads and buildings. Mill 
  Creek will back up causing flooding north of Louisiana Highway 38. 
  Evacuation is recommended for persons east of Louisiana Highway 43 
  from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier. In 1983, 12,800 acres 
  were inundated during record flooding.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...There will be major flooding of roads and 
  buildings. Mill Creek will back up causing flooding north of 
  Louisiana Highway 38. Evacuation is recommended for persons east of
  Louisiana Highway 43 from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Low lying roads and buildings near the river
  along with pasture and crop land will flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061

$$

LAC063-141517-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HOLL1.3.ER.160812T1805Z.160814T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
418 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Holden.
* until further notice.
* At  3:45 AM Saturday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet by 
  tomorrow early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Water will reach the under carriage of the 
  Highway 190 bridge. The bridge will be in danger of structural 
  damage as debris is carried downstream in strong, swift current. 
  Access roads will be impassable.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Many secondary roads will be under water and
  closed due to high water.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Property in low areas along the river from 
  Interstate 12 north to Parish Road 1036 will flood.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Wooded areas in the vicinity of the Highway 
  190 bridge will be inundated.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 9059 3062 9065 3051 9069 3051 9061

$$

LAC091-141517-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MONL1.3.ER.160812T1443Z.160812T2230Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
418 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Montpelier.
* until further notice.
* At  3:30 AM Saturday the stage was 23.8 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 22.7 feet 
  by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...At 20 feet water will reach the 
  undercarriage of the Highway 16 bridge. Approaches to the bridge 
  will be under water. Highway 16 will likely be closed. Secondary 
  roads within a mile of the river will be under water and closed to 
  traffic.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The river channel will expand to about one 
  half mile wide for several miles downstream from Montpelier. 
  Secondary roads west of Louisiana Highway 43 will be under water 
  and likely to be closed to traffic. Woodlands and farmland near the
  river will remain inundated.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Woodlands and farmland near the river will 
  be inundated. Livestock and farm equipment should be moved to 
  higher ground.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...The low banks will overflow threatening 
  commercial interests near the river with flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 9061 3078 9067 3062 9065 3062 9059

$$
282 
WGUS84 KLIX 131416
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
916 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
The Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish 

The Tickfaw River Near Montpelier affecting St. Helena Parish 

The Tickfaw River Near Holden affecting Livingston Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-142016-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-160817T0430Z/
/LPOL1.3.ER.160812T0743Z.160813T0045Z.160816T2230Z.NR/
916 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* until Tuesday evening.
* At 8:15 AM Saturday the stage was 11.3 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising until cresting 
  at around 14.0 feet by late tonight. The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage by late Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Major flooding of the river basin will 
  occur. There will be major flooding of roads and buildings. Mill 
  Creek will back up causing flooding north of Louisiana Highway 38. 
  Evacuation is recommended for persons east of Louisiana Highway 43 
  from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier. In 1983, 12,800 acres 
  were inundated during record flooding.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...There will be major flooding of roads and 
  buildings. Mill Creek will back up causing flooding north of 
  Louisiana Highway 38. Evacuation is recommended for persons east of
  Louisiana Highway 43 from Easleyville downstream to Montpelier.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Low lying roads and buildings near the river
  along with pasture and crop land will flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Pastures and crop land adjacent to the river 
  will flood. Rural areas near the river will be threatened with 
  flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061



$$

LAC063-142015-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HOLL1.3.ER.160812T1805Z.160814T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
916 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Holden.
* until further notice.
* At 8:45 AM Saturday the stage was 21.8 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising until cresting 
  at around 26.5 feet by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Water will reach the under carriage of the 
  Highway 190 bridge. The bridge will be in danger of structural 
  damage as debris is carried downstream in strong, swift current. 
  Access roads will be impassable.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Many secondary roads will be under water and
  closed due to high water.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Property in low areas along the river from 
  Interstate 12 north to Parish Road 1036 will flood.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Wooded areas in the vicinity of the Highway 
  190 bridge will be inundated.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Tickfaw State Park, located downstream of 
  the Holden gage, will close.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flooding will expand downstream in the 
  Tickfaw State Park.  All campgrounds will close. 
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Areas downstream in the Tickfaw State Park 
  will begin to flood, primarily in the Tent Area.


&&

LAT...LON 3062 9059 3062 9065 3051 9069 3051 9061



$$

LAC091-142015-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-160818T1312Z/
/MONL1.3.ER.160812T1443Z.160812T2230Z.160818T0712Z.NR/
916 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Montpelier.
* until Thursday morning.
* At 8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 22.4 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has already crested and is expected to fall 
  below flood stage by early Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...At 20 feet water will reach the 
  undercarriage of the Highway 16 bridge. Approaches to the bridge 
  will be under water. Highway 16 will likely be closed. Secondary 
  roads within a mile of the river will be under water and closed to 
  traffic.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The river channel will expand to about one 
  half mile wide for several miles downstream from Montpelier. 
  Secondary roads west of Louisiana Highway 43 will be under water 
  and likely to be closed to traffic. Woodlands and farmland near the
  river will remain inundated.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Woodlands and farmland near the river will 
  be inundated. Livestock and farm equipment should be moved to 
  higher ground.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...The low banks will overflow threatening 
  commercial interests near the river with flooding.
* Impact...At 12.5 feet...Forestry and sand and gravel operations will
  be curtailed.


&&

LAT...LON 3070 9061 3078 9067 3062 9065 3062 9059




$$
429 
WGUS84 KLIX 140144
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
844 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish 
  
  Tickfaw River Near Montpelier affecting St. Helena Parish 
  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...

  Tickfaw River Near Holden affecting Livingston Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-150744-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-160815T1312Z/
/LPOL1.3.ER.160812T0743Z.160813T0045Z.160815T0712Z.NR/
844 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* until Monday morning.
* At  8:15 PM Saturday the stage was 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Pastures and crop land adjacent to the river 
  will flood. Rural areas near the river will be threatened with 
  flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061




$$

LAC063-150744-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HOLL1.3.ER.160812T1805Z.160814T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
844 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Holden.
* until further notice.
* At  7:45 PM Saturday the stage was 21.9 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet by 
  tomorrow evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Water will reach the under carriage of the 
  Highway 190 bridge. The bridge will be in danger of structural 
  damage as debris is carried downstream in strong, swift current. 
  Access roads will be impassable.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Many secondary roads will be under water and
  closed due to high water.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Property in low areas along the river from 
  Interstate 12 north to Parish Road 1036 will flood.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Wooded areas in the vicinity of the Highway 
  190 bridge will be inundated.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Tickfaw State Park, located downstream of 
  the Holden gage, will close.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flooding will expand downstream in the 
  Tickfaw State Park.  All campgrounds will close. 
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Areas downstream in the Tickfaw State Park 
  will begin to flood, primarily in the Tent Area.


&&

LAT...LON 3062 9059 3062 9065 3051 9069 3051 9061




$$

LAC091-150743-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-160816T0600Z/
/MONL1.3.ER.160812T1443Z.160812T2230Z.160816T0000Z.NR/
844 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Montpelier.
* until late Monday night.
* At  8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 19.4 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Monday evening.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The river channel will expand to about one 
  half mile wide for several miles downstream from Montpelier. 
  Secondary roads west of Louisiana Highway 43 will be under water 
  and likely to be closed to traffic. Woodlands and farmland near the
  river will remain inundated.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Woodlands and farmland near the river will 
  be inundated. Livestock and farm equipment should be moved to 
  higher ground.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...The low banks will overflow threatening 
  commercial interests near the river with flooding.
* Impact...At 12.5 feet...Forestry and sand and gravel operations will
  be curtailed.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 9061 3078 9067 3062 9065 3062 9059




$$
096 
WGUS84 KLIX 141522
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1022 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
The Tickfaw River At Liverpool affecting St. Helena Parish 

The Tickfaw River Near Holden affecting Livingston Parish 

The Tickfaw River Near Montpelier affecting St. Helena Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC091-150000-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-160815T0000Z/
/LPOL1.3.ER.160812T0743Z.160813T0045Z.160814T1800Z.NR/
1022 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River At Liverpool.
* until this evening.
* At 9:15 AM Sunday the stage was 9.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has already crested and is expected to fall 
  below flood stage by early afternoon today.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Pastures and crop land adjacent to the river 
  will flood. Rural areas near the river will be threatened with 
  flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 9063 3100 9070 3078 9067 3070 9061




$$

LAC063-152121-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-160816T0356Z/
/HOLL1.3.ER.160812T1805Z.160814T0815Z.160815T2156Z.NR/
1022 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Holden.
* until Monday evening.
* At 9:45 AM Sunday the stage was 21.1 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has already crested and is expected to fall 
  below flood stage by early Monday evening.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Many secondary roads will be under water and
  closed due to high water.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Property in low areas along the river from 
  Interstate 12 north to Parish Road 1036 will flood.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Wooded areas in the vicinity of the Highway 
  190 bridge will be inundated.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Tickfaw State Park, located downstream of 
  the Holden gage, will close.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Flooding will expand downstream in the 
  Tickfaw State Park.  All campgrounds will close. 
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Areas downstream in the Tickfaw State Park 
  will begin to flood, primarily in the Tent Area.


&&

LAT...LON 3062 9059 3062 9065 3051 9069 3051 9061




$$

LAC091-150524-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-160815T0524Z/
/MONL1.3.ER.160812T1443Z.160812T2230Z.160814T2324Z.NR/
1022 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tickfaw River Near Montpelier.
* until late tonight.
* At 9:30 AM Sunday the stage was 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has already crested and is expected to fall 
  below flood stage by 7 pm this evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Woodlands and farmland near the river will 
  be inundated. Livestock and farm equipment should be moved to 
  higher ground.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...The low banks will overflow threatening 
  commercial interests near the river with flooding.
* Impact...At 12.5 feet...Forestry and sand and gravel operations will
  be curtailed.


&&

LAT...LON 3070 9061 3078 9067 3062 9065 3062 9059




$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Aug 11, 9:56 AM CDT, 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 11, 9:56 AM CDT, 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
956 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Only change this morning is the increase the QPF another 1-2 inches
from previous thinking to catch current trends and short-term expectations.
Flood threat is increasing in liklihood over a large portion of the CWA
today.

Internally, have switched the KLIX radar to a tropical configuration to better
handle rainfall estimates. In warm rain processes, the conventional conversion
factors typically underestimate. By changing, it slightly overestimate in
places but should be closer to ground truth gages.

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Very moist sounding with a 2.68 inch precipitable water on a deep moist
adiabatic looking tropical sounding. Winds NW 15 kt surface to about 13kft,
then E 10-20kt to 45kft, then strong NE winds 20-45kt near the tropopause.
Some of these higher winds will likely momentum down to the lower levels
during rainfall banding akin to tropical cyclone spiral band processes. Main
threat will remain heavy rainfall, but some broad scale gustiness may occur
in places where rainfall banding is more organized.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: High Impact Desk.
Activities: Flash Flood Watch/Flash Flood Warnings/River Warnings

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
 direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Overall forecast thinking hasn't changed much from the previous
with heavy rainfall expected over the next 2 to 3 days. 24hr
radar estimates of rainfall over inland locations range from just
a couple tenths to 4-6" in isolated locations while offshore
numbers maxed out scarily high, upwards of 20+ inches. Current
radar shows fairly quiet conditions for most of the inland CWA
except along the LA coast from the MS River to Terrebonne Parish.
There, convection has already begun to move inland. Surface and
mid level troughs are now located nearly overhead and will be the
main focus for storms today. Meso and global models suggest that
showers and thunderstorms will encompass the rest of the coastal
parishes and counties later this morning before spreading inland
throughout the day. The biggest concern for flash flooding will
first be along the coast. The secondary threat will be very heavy
rain producing cells along bands passing across the CWA over
further inland locations. The 00z LIX sounding from yesterdayafternoon
showed an astoundingly high 2.78" for precip water. That is higher
than some soundings observed here during past tropical cyclones.
With such deep tropical moisture in place, any storms of moderate
intensity will be very efficient rain producers and could result
in localized flooding. 1-2"/hr rainfall rates are certainly
possible. Moving into Friday, models remain consistent in
indicating widespread heavy rainfall across all of the CWA. Thus
have increased pops to nearly 100% for most of the forecast area.

Decided to make a couple changes to the Flood Watch. First, have
extended the areal coverage to include all of the CWA as the
threat looks to shift further inland today and definitely on
Friday. Models have been pinging on an area from BTR to MSY for
the highest amounts. Secondly, have changed the watch from a
Flood Watch to a Flash Flood Watch. Part of the reason was to have
a more consistent hazardous weather message with surrounding
office, but moreso related to the threat of flash flooding
becoming higher with soils already quite saturated from widespread
heavy rain yesterday.

LONG TERM...
An upper trough moving eastward across the midsection of the country
over the weekend while the Bermuda ridge spreads further west and
causes the mid/upper low overhead to shift further west as well.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will follow suit and have adjusted
the pops accordingly. Highest rain chances will mainly be along and
west of I-55 but overall qpf looks to be on a downward trend as the
low starts to weaken.

A typical active summertime pattern will begin to setup early next
week and could continue for quite a few days. Models show upper
level ridges remaining in place east and west of the region. This
will keep the CWA in a shear zone between those 2 features and
within an area of less subsidence. Ample moisture still in place
combined with normal daytime heating should promote numerous
afternoon thunderstorms.

MEFFER
AVIATION...

Will carry TSRA at all sites through the day with timing of onset.
IFR conditions will result when TS moves over any particular site.
Waterspout activity will also be prevalent through the next few days
for those near shore terminals.

MARINE...

Broad sfc low over southern Mississippi will continue its very slow
progress westward today and tonight. Between the sfc low and the sfc
high to the east, a steeper pressure gradient will cause winds to
increase a bit today. But the main culprit will be the widespread
sh/ts coverage. Since winds and seas will be higher with each sh/ts
cell over most if not all locations, small craft advisories will be
posted for most of the coastal waters throughout today. A decrease
in this sh/ts activity this evening will allow these advisories to
be lowered to caution statements.

The line of sh/ts that have been over the northern gulf are
beginning to move slowly northward this morning as the sfc low moves
west. The amount of rain falling within a short period over coastal
locations could cause vessel bilge capacity to be overwhelmed
rapidly even when moored. As this activity moves farther inland,
conditions should begin to improve by late Friday into Saturday.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Flash Flood Watch tonight into Saturday morning .

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
 direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  76  83  75 /  80  80  90  70
BTR  87  76  84  76 /  80  80  90  70
ASD  87  76  85  76 /  90  80 100  40
MSY  85  78  84  77 /  90  80 100  40
GPT  85  77  84  78 /  90  80 100  50
PQL  86  77  85  77 /  90  80  90  50

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-536-
     538-552-555-557-572-575-577.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ536-538-
     552-555-557-572-575-577.

&&

24/RR
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 11, 3:40 AM CDT, 6 hours 46 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-112045-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
340 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHEERN MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED THROUGH TODAY FOR MOST
COASTAL WATER AREAS FROM PORT FOURCHON EAST. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DUE
TO WINDS PRODUCED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SAME AREAS WILL DROP TO A CAUTION FLAG STARTING THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH...AND WIDESPREAD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
WATERSPOUTS AND TROPICAL FUNNELS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO SATURDAY FOR FLOOD
MONITORING. PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN SLIDELL.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 11, 8:25 AM CDT, 2 hours 1 minute before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
825 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

MSZ080-081-111400-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-
825 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...TROPICAL SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON AND SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES...

AT 822 AM CDT...THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER DIAMONDHEAD.
THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONG BEACH...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...
KILN AND SHORELINE PARK.

LAT...LON 3030 8929 3033 8929 3035 8927 3036 8928
      3036 8931 3037 8931 3037 8935 3033 8938
      3034 8934 3032 8932 3031 8933 3026 8939
      3026 8942 3023 8943 3040 8950 3049 8933
      3034 8916
TIME...MOT...LOC 1322Z 328DEG 4KT 3039 8938

The office that day

Everything else NWS New Orleans, LA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 11, 2:18 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLIX87 min
Aug 11, 3:26 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXJefferson, Lafourche64 min
Aug 11, 4:32 AM CDTFlash Flood WatchLIXAssumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Pointe Coupee, Saint Bernard and 7 more3 days
Aug 11, 5:19 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLIXJefferson, Lafourche, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Terrebonne3 hr
Aug 11, 8:17 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLIXAssumption3 hr
Aug 11, 8:38 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLIXJefferson, Lafourche, Saint Charles, Saint James, Saint John the Baptist, Terrebonne4 hr
Aug 11, 9:28 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLIXAscension, Assumption, Iberville, Lafourche, Saint Charles, Saint James and 2 more5 hr
Aug 11, 9:42 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany5 days
Aug 11, 10:19 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge6 days
Aug 11, 10:19 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, Livingston6 days
Aug 11, 10:19 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge9 days
Aug 11, 10:35 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany5 days
Aug 11, 10:50 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany71 hr
Aug 11, 11:16 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLIX59 min
Aug 11, 11:57 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXIberville48 min
Aug 11, 12:14 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXPointe Coupee46 min
Aug 11, 12:39 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXIberville51 min
Aug 11, 2:05 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningLIXAscension, Saint Charles, Saint James, Saint John the Baptist3 hr
Aug 11, 2:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXTangipahoa45 min
Aug 11, 3:08 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXLivingston, Saint Helena, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Washington22 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2016Every river flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.