Coastal Flood Warning 2, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISSCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...LONG DURATION VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN PROGRESS...

.SYNOPSIS...

00Z LIX PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.99 INCHES...WHICH IS PRETTY
MUCH THE TOP OF THE CHART FOR MARCH. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND HAS NOT TAKEN ON A NEGATIVE TILT YET.
NUMEROUS SURGES OF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR POINTED AT THE
LOUISIANA COAST. ONE SURGE HAS A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION
FROM ALEXANDRIA TO LAFAYETTE THEN WELL OUT INTO THE GULF. THIS
BAND WILL MOVE INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. MESOLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
SOUTHWEST OF MORGAN CITY. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...PORTIONS OF THE
AREA NEAR HAMMOND HAVE LIKELY SEEN 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN
ALREADY...WITH A LOT MORE TO COME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT VERSION IS THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
ENTIRE AREA REMAINS IN MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH AREAS
NEAR HAMMOND IN HIGH RISK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE. FOCUS OF CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AND MOVE INTO AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT GOTTEN INTO THE HEAVY RAIN YET...SUCH AS THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. CERTAINLY...PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE ECHO TRAINING
OCCURS WILL SEE EVEN MORE THAN THAT. NO DOUBT THAT AREAS WILL BE
WELL IN EXCESS OF ONE FOOT OF RAIN BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS.

UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ENDING THE RAIN AS DRYING MOVES IN. THE SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE WEST COAST THAT WILL SERVE AS THE KICKER TO THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COMPARATIVELY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

WHILE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE 70 TO 75
RANGE...SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO RISE TO NEAR
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON 500 MB PATTERN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY ON STRENGTH OF
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH GFS
BECOMING MUCH DEEPER THAN ECMWF. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PRESSURE...GFS ABOUT 15 MB
DEEPER BY TUESDAY EVENING OVER ILLINOIS. BOTH PUSH A FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKER ECMWF ALLOWS THE FRONT TO HANG
UP OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT
INTO THE GULF. WILL TREND SOMEWHAT NEARER THE ECMWF WITH HIGHER
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS ALSO NECESSITATES THAT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GO SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN GFS SOLUTION FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS ALL SITES. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE IFR
RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. 7/ARM

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS AS THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO
MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...ADVISORY CRITERIA CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 7/ARM

&&

.HYDROLOGY AND COASTAL FLOODING...

COMBINATION OF CURRENT AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING...RISING RIVERS...AND CURRENT TIDE LEVELS STILL RUNNING 2
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL INUNDATION OF LOWER
LYING ROADS FOR AREAS SURROUNDING LAKE MAUREPAS...WESTERN AND
NORTHERN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND HANCOCK COUNTY...SO HAVE
UPGRADED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO A WARNING AND EXTENDED THE
EXPIRATION TIME TO 6 PM SATURDAY SINCE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH WATER
IN...AND TIDAL RANGES ALSO INCREASE ON SATURDAY. REMAINING COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD GENERALLY SEE TIDES REMAINING 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL...SO WILL NOT UPGRADE THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MOST RIVERS /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER/ IN
OUR SERVICE AREA ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SOME RIVER BASINS THAT SEE HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD SEE FORECAST CRESTS ADJUSTED EVEN
HIGHER. EXPECT FREQUENT UPDATED RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS.
22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....ORANGE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...COASTAL FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING...RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  65  72  58 / 100  80  90  30
BTR  73  65  75  60 / 100  80  80  20
ASD  72  66  73  61 / 100  90  90  40
MSY  73  66  74  62 / 100  90  90  20
GPT  71  66  72  62 / 100  90  90  60
PQL  72  65  72  61 / 100  90  90  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LAZ057-
     060>064-066>070.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LAZ040-049-050-
     058-072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-550-552-570-572.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ536-538-555-
     557-575-577.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR MSZ081-082.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR MSZ080.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534-
     550-552-570-572.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ538-555-557-
     575-577.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
600 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-111400-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
600 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
STATE LINE. TIDES UP TO 2.5 ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS SEEING TIDES OF 3 TO 3.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
LOCATIONS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI-
ALABAMA STATE LINE THROUGH FRIDAY. TIDES UP TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING TIDES OF 3 TO 3.5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR
FLOOD REPORTING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
259 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HAMMOND                 30.51N 90.46W
03/11/2016                   TANGIPAHOA         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA ON SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTED WATER IN 40 TO
            50 HOMES NEAR RUFUS BANKSTON AND QUICK BOULEVARD IN
            HAMMOND WITH WATER RESCUES OCCURRING.

&&

BWAGNER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

LAZ046-049-056>061-065>068-111030-
UPPER LAFOURCHE LA-UPPER JEFFERSON LA-IBERVILLE LA-
LOWER JEFFERSON LA-ST. CHARLES LA-LOWER LAFOURCHE LA-ASSUMPTION LA-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST LA-UPPER TERREBONNE LA-ASCENSION LA-
ST. JAMES LA-LOWER TERREBONNE LA-
333 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAFOURCHE...SOUTHERN ST.
CHARLES...ASSUMPTION...ST. JAMES...SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...TERREBONNE...SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE...SOUTHWESTERN
ASCENSION AND WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISHES UNTIL 430 AM CST...

AT 332 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FRANKLIN TO NEAR DULAC
TO 49 MILES SOUTH OF COCODRIE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOUMA...THIBODAUX...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...NAPOLEONVILLE...CUT
OFF...GALLIANO...LAROSE...ST. GABRIEL...GRAMERCY...LUTCHER...
LOCKPORT...GOLDEN MEADOW...WHITE CASTLE...SORRENTO...BAYOU GENEVE...
SOUTH VACHERIE...MATHEWS...COCODRIE AND SUPREME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2929 9037 2929 9038 2922 9041 2935 9043
      2911 9071 2926 9075 2955 9123 2962 9108
      2975 9109 3006 9129 3028 9107 2974 9016
      2927 9004 2931 9006 2926 9004 2932 9007
      2910 9018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0932Z 227DEG 30KT 2976 9149 2930 9071 2855 9051

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
339 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FRANKLINTON             30.85N 90.14W
03/11/2016                   WASHINGTON         LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED REPORT FROM FRANKLINTON POLICE
            DEPARTMENT OF MODERATE STREET FLOODING. ALSO REPORT THAT
            THE FAIRGROUNDS ARE FLOODED WITH THE POTENTIAL TO WASH
            OUT A BRIDGE. ONE CAR COMPLETELY SUBMERGED.

&&

BWAGNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LIVINGSTON              30.50N 90.75W
03/11/2016  M7.57 INCH       LIVINGSTON         LA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER IN LIVINGSTON REPORTS STORM TOTAL OF 7.57
            INCHES AND STILL RAINING.

&&

BWAGNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 WSW BAYOU CANE       29.57N 90.91W
03/11/2016                   TERREBONNE         LA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOWN OVER AT 3839 BAYOU BLACK DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

0411 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 WNW HOUMA             29.61N 90.85W
03/11/2016                   TERREBONNE         LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN OVER AT 4449 BAYOU BLACK DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

ANSORGE