Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISSCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT HISTORIC FLOODING TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTH IS FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
THIS FORECASTER IS HAPPY TO SEE IT GO. WE STILL HAVE A SHOT AT
SOME RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LAST PUNCH OF THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW WILL CARRY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN. WE FINALLY DRY OUT
SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 80 WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED IN OUR
AREA. A QUICK MOVING WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
AND WARM...DRY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
13/MH

.LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN SOLUTIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD..BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES AT MIDWEEK. MODELS
STILL INDICATE A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE STALLING OVER THE AREA. THERE IS COOLER AIR WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR PUSH.
AFTER THURSDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE. THE GFS IS A DRIER
SOLUTION AND THE EURO HAS SOME OTHER ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WILL KEEP A BLENDED APPROACH IN THE FORECAST
AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMBINATION OF STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RISE BACK TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD THEN RELAX
AGAIN WITH WINDS EASING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....ORANGE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...COASTAL FLOODING
             FLASH FLOODING
             MAJOR RIVER FLOODING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  77  60  80 /  70  10  10  10
BTR  59  79  62  81 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  61  78  62  80 /  60  10  10   0
MSY  62  78  64  80 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  62  75  62  76 /  70  10  10  10
PQL  61  76  62  78 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ057-060>064-
     066>070.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ040-049-050-
     058-072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-536-
     538-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ081-082.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ080.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ536-538-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

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