Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1259 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Local 88Ds show convection steadily increasing in coverage with
heating this afternoon...and TAFs were initialized based on nearby
activity at press time. Regardless all terminals should see
showers/storms through much of the day. Am carrying variable winds
all sites as abundant outflows should be constantly changing wind
directions...regardless lack of a good pressure gradient means
speeds should be rather light. Most convection should end with
sunset...could still see some showers overnight but have elected
to not carry any precip mention for now. VCSH returns late in the
forecast period as abundant moisture/heating/instability lead to
more convection tomorrow morning.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1102 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Widespread convection continues over the coastal waters this
morning, with little development inland so far. However, expect
things to start getting active within the next hour or so with
air temps near or abv convective temp, combined with a rather
broad mid/upper trof over the Gulf and ample moisture with precip
water values again close to max (2.4-2.5 inches) for this time of
year.

At this time, POPs are a little overdone inland even with some
adjustments this morning based on recent HRRR runs. However, as
mentioned abv, think things will start developing soon so will
keep chc/likely values as is. Otherwise, made some minor tweaks to
hourly temps/dewpoints based on recent obs, and updated zones for
minor adjustments to wording.

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PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12z taf issuance.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA already across coastal waters, drifting north across
the coastal parishes/counties across the region. VCSH for southern
sites transitioning to VCTS by 14z. Greatest chances for SHRA/TSRA
likely come between 18-22z today, placing tempo group for this for
ARA/LFT/LCH/BPT, and a couple of hours later for AEX as the
convection moves inland. Diminishing convection expected after
sunset this evening. Light SE winds 5-8 kts expected outside
convection.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...Radar depicting just a few showers over the
immediate coast and near coastal waters. Increasing activity
expected as the night progresses. Considerable cirrus debris
remains over the area associated with earlier shower and
thunderstorm activity to our north.

Unsettled weather pattern continues appears to be setting up
through the week and respectable rain chances will be carried
daily. Evening LCH sounding showing precipitable water well above
the norm coming in at 2.43 inches. Normal for late July is near
1.8 inches. Deep moisture progged similarly by models to hold
through the week. This as inverted se-nw oriented mid and upper
level trof now positioned from the eastern gulf and through the
lower Mississippi valley slowly edges west. Feature progged to
reach the western gulf or just inland toward mid-week and linger
between subtropical and southwest CONUS highs. Resultant cloud
cover and rains will act to keep temperatures at or just below
the norm.

MARINE...A weak surface trof over the northwest Gulf will yield
light and somewhat variable winds today and into Tuesday. The
subtropical high will become reestablished over the gulf waters
for mid-week with a light onshore flow returning. Low pressure
aloft will maintain a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  73  92  74 /  50  30  40  30
LCH  90  76  90  77 /  60  30  50  50
LFT  90  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  50
BPT  91  76  90  76 /  70  30  50  40

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1212 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-261715-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
1212 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE GULF. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN AND
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS
TIME...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES WEST OF
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON
THOSE DAYS...HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
312 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

TXZ259-260-252045-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
312 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL JASPER AND
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTIES...

AT 312 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
NEWTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JASPER...NEWTON...ROGANVILLE...MT. UNION...JAMESTOWN...
MAGNOLIA SPRINGS AND HOLLY SPRINGS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3084 9418 3100 9375 3084 9364 3060 9403
      3065 9405 3067 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 060DEG 19KT 3088 9378

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