Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
628 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For the 13/12z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level disturbance will move down from northeast Texas and
across the forecast area during the day. Plenty of moisture and
instability for this system to work with, and scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a
result. Tried to time the best chance for convective activity near
the TAF sites, and place Tempo groups for various times at each
one. The showers and thunderstorms will decrease after 14/00z with
the loss of daytime heating, and upper level disturbance moves off
to the east.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Tuesday.
Main forecast issue will be rain chances for today. MCS continues to
move through east Texas overnight.  HRRR radar progs have been
consistent in showing at least remnants of this system entering the
forecast area around 11Z. Even if this system weakens
significantly... it will provide good focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity for today. Will adjust POPs forecast
slightly higher today to account more for the MCS. Upper trough
over the ARKLATX region should shift east and gradually weaken
tonight and Tuesday. POPs overall will be lower on Tuesday but
scattered coverage of storms is still likely over central
Louisiana.

Long Term...Tuesday night through Sunday...
Weak upper ridge pattern will continue for the middle of the week.
Limited coverage of daytime showers and isolated storms are expected
along seabreeze boundaries.  Models are indicating a more amplified
pattern for late in the week through the weekend.  Forecast area
will generally remain in the eastern periphery of upper
anticyclone. This should keep a drier pattern over the area
through Friday.  As upper high shifts westward...troughing may
work into the area from the west. This will likely bring slightly
better rain chances for the weekend.

MARINE...
Broad high pressure will expand over the eastern Gulf through the
week.  This will allow for weak onshore flow during the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  74  90  75 /  70  20  40  20
LCH  86  77  89  78 /  50  20  30  10
LFT  88  76  90  77 /  60  20  40  20
BPT  87  78  90  78 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
415 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-140915-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
415 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER EAST
TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE WEATHER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...TORRENTIAL RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN OCCUR WITH A FEW STORMS. DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BURSTS OF
HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. AT THIS TIME...NO WIDESPREAD
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR HEAT
INDICES TO APPROACH 105. RESIDENTS VENTURING OUTDOORS ARE URGED
TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
932 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

LAZ031>033-042>045-052-053-131515-
JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-EVANGELINE LA-ST. LANDRY LA-ALLEN LA-ACADIA LA-
IBERIA LA-UPPER ST. MARTIN LA-VERMILION LA-LAFAYETTE LA-
932 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 929 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FENTON TO NEAR LYONS POINT TO NEAR AVERY
ISLAND. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAFAYETTE...NEW IBERIA...CROWLEY...ABBEVILLE...CATAHOULA...EUNICE...
JENNINGS...SCOTT...BREAUX BRIDGE...RAYNE...CARENCRO...
ST. MARTINVILLE...KAPLAN...CHURCH POINT...WELSH...IOWA...BASILE...
IOTA...ELTON AND MERMENTAU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2983 9183 2983 9186 2984 9190 2985 9188
      2985 9191 3022 9300 3026 9300 3070 9267
      3022 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1429Z 212DEG 18KT 3029 9292 3007 9235 2991 9186

K. KUYPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1121 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

LAZ027-028-030-031-131700-
RAPIDES LA-ALLEN LA-BEAUREGARD LA-VERNON LA-
1121 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VERNON...NORTH
CENTRAL ALLEN...NORTHEASTERN BEAUREGARD AND SOUTHWESTERN RAPIDES
PARISHES UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1121 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR GRANT...OR NEAR SUGARTOWN...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PITKIN...SUGARTOWN...GRANT AND FULLERTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3107 9270 3072 9290 3076 9306 3113 9300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 194DEG 22KT 3085 9294

TWH