Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COOL FRONT STILL SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR GALVESTON TO JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA. LOW CLOUDS WERE
CLEARING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES. ELSEWHERE...PEA SOUP WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE RANGE OF MVFR TO IFR PREVAILED. MOST OF
THE NIGHT ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WILL LIKELY
STAY THE SOUP AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGRATES SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME
OVERRUNING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW SO EXPECT SOME RAIN
AND POSSIBLE THUNDER IN THE MORNING IN SOME AREAS EXPANDING THROUGH
LATE MORNING. MVFR A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS TOMORROW WITH POSSIBLY
SOME RELIEF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED RIGHT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL LET SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 69 RIDE UNTIL EXPIRATION TIME AT 01/03Z OR 10
PM CDT...JUST IN CASE ONE OF THE STORMS PULSES UP ALONG THE LINE
AND PRODUCES SOME HAIL. OTHERWISE...INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH SEVERE THREAT BECOMING MINIMAL AFTER THAT.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND BE LOCATED ROUGHLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST TO INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA BY DAYBREAK. WITH STILL DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND...PWAT ON LATEST KLCH SOUNDING NEAR 1.4 INCHES...SO FRONTAL LIFT
MAYBE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY REDEVELOP...MAINLY SOUTHERN
ZONES...LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO COME
DURING FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCES OVER-RIDING
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO
LOWER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF
CAMERON TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON EARLY
FRIDAY...WILL GO AHEAD AND PLACE THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE MARINE
ZONES IN EXERCISE CAUTION FOR FRIDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME OF THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ADJUSTED FOR
IMPROVEMENT SHORTLY FOR BPT...LCH...AND AEX ALREADY. THIS MAY NOT
LAST THE NIGHT BUT FOR NOW LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUED TO SHOW
SOME CLEARING. OTHER AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
BLANKET FOR SOME TIME AS THE FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND WAS LOCATED NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS TO WEST OF RUSTON
LOUISIANA. FRONT WILL CONTINUE A LAZY JOG EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME OVERRRUNING LIKELY TO KEEP RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE TAF
PACKAGE THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW. PERHAPS WE MIGHT SEE SOME
IMPROVMENT IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW FOR ALL LOCATION EXCEPT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL LA LFT/ARA TAF SITES.

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACRS THE DAKOTAS...WITH AN ELONGATED TROF EXTENDING SW
TOWARD AZ. SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS RELATIVELY DRY...BUT AN
IMPULSE IN THE FLOW IS TAPPING LOW LVL MOISTURE RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SHRA AND TSRA ACRS NRN AND CNTL LA. THE
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MANY OF THESE STORMS ARE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING AS THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS BOOSTED BY AFTN
HEATING WITH SVR POTENTIAL FURTHER SUPPORTED BY STRONG SHEAR.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FM KLIT TOWARD KIAH. GUSTY SLY
WINDS PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE OF
YESTERDAY'S STRONG WINDS. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPR
70S.

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH AND NE OF THE AREA...THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK FOR A FEW SVR STORMS ACRS OUR NRN LA ZONES. A SVR TSTM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON...RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES PARISHES
THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND ENERGY ALOFT MOVES FURTHER NE. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE CDFNT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT FROM CNTL LA TOWARD THE ACADIANA
REGION AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR THE
STRONG STORMS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER THE NW GULF FRI
MORNING...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SFC LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON THE UPR TX COAST AS
THE TROF ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE NE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL KEEP A HIGH CHC OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS IN THE FCST MAINLY ACRS THE SRN/SERN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET A DECENT PUSH OFFSHORE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LVL TROF AXIS EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN CHCS
WILL END WITH HIGH PRES BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. COOL
MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL TRANSITION
WARMER AND MORE HUMID BY MIDWEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
SLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHC FOR RAIN.

MARINE...
MODT SLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE E/NE LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK CDFNT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SO HAVE KEPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM AND EAST OF CAMERON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER THE NW GULF...WITH LOW PRES
DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRI NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE RE-ISSUED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LT AND VRBL THEN TRANSITIONING MORE
SELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES ACRS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  58  73  48  69 /  50  40  20  10
LCH  63  75  51  71 /  20  70  30  10
LFT  66  75  53  70 /  20  80  30  10
BPT  62  74  52  73 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-470-472.

&&

PUBLIC...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
408 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-310915-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
408 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE REGION HAS OPENED UP TO GULF MOISTURE AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY
HAS PULLED BACK TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. LOOKING FOR SHOWERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM MAY
BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A STORM MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HAZARDOUS
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>