Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1158 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

.UPDATE...
GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH #5 VALID TIL 01Z/19CST.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
21/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACRS THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT SRN TAF SITES WHILE FOG WITH LIFR VSBYS/CIGS
PERSISTS AT AEX. EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS ACRS CNTL LA AS THE
FRONT MOVES FURTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTN. MEANWHILE...ISLTD
SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING ACRS LA WITH MORE SCTD ACTIVITY ACRS SE
TX IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPR LOW AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION. CONVECTIVE COVG WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN WITH A
BAND OF STORMS...SOME STRONG...APPROACHING BPT AROUND 21Z THEN
MOVING EAST ACRS THE AREA AND EXITING LFT/ARA AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AS WELL AS STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...IN
ADDITION TO REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST THEN
NW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRI. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRI MORNING. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES AS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH. REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016/

UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
ACADIANA. UPDATED FORECAST IS OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DOTTING THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF
INTENSIFYING WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. EASTWARD
ADVANCING FEATURES WILL BRING RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MODELS CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

CARRYING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH A RAPID PROGRESSIVE OF SYSTEM...EXTENSIVE RAINS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH AREAL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH. AS IS ALWAYS
THE CASE THOUGH...STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MAIN CONCERN IS FOR A SEVERE THREAT EVOLVING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS NOW ENCOMPASSED THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...WITH A MORE CONCERNING ENHANCED
RISK FOR MUCH OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALL INGREDIENTS
COMING TOGETHER INCLUDING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES MAXING
OUT FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 50 TO 70 KNOTS.
1-3 KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 200-300. ROTATING STORMS EXPECTED.
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE IN PLAY.

RAINS END OVERNIGHT WITH SYSTEM EXITING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION YIELDING A DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW THE NORM WITH LOWS
REACHING OR NEAR FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS 1030 MB HIGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS
RISE ONLY INTO THE LOW 50S. TEMPS LOOK TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY.
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BRIEFLY MONDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURNING
CHANCE OF RAINS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MARINE...LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST PRIOR TO ITS
PASSAGE. RAINS WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY BUT EXTREMELY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SET UP FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
NEAR SHORE. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  40  46  30 /  80  70  20  10
LCH  70  42  50  33 /  80  40  10   0
LFT  71  44  50  32 /  80  70  10   0
BPT  71  40  51  33 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ450-452-455.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
221015-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
413 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MAIN CONCERN IS FOR A SEVERE THREAT EVOLVING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS NOW ENCOMPASSED THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...WITH A MORE CONCERNING ENHANCED
RISK FOR MUCH OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALL INGREDIENTS
COMING TOGETHER INCLUDING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES MAXING
OUT FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 50 TO 70 KNOTS.
1-3 KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 200-300. ROTATING STORMS EXPECTED.
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE IN PLAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-221015-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
413 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST PRIOR TO ITS
PASSAGE. RAINS WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY BUT EXTREMELY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SET UP FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
NEAR SHORE. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

TXZ180-201-259-261-211830-
NORTHERN JASPER TX-TYLER TX-SOUTHERN JASPER TX-HARDIN TX-
1200 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TYLER...NORTHEASTERN
HARDIN AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CST...

AT 1159 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER KOUNTZE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SILSBEE...KOUNTZE...FRED...HONEY ISLAND AND CANEY HEAD.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3026 9433 3040 9447 3072 9413 3052 9392
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 227DEG 32KT 3038 9434

TINGLER