Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1147 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED LCH AND BPT AND IS IN THE
AEX VCNTY. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THRU LFT AND ARA AFTER
DAYBREAK. A STRONG 150KT+ SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ADDED ENERGY TO THIS
SYSTEM RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS AND A FEW TORNADIC
TSTMS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WHERE THE GRADIENT HAS LOOSENED. VLIFR FOR BPT AND AEX, LIFR FOR
LCH. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGER TO THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING...IFR FOR LFT AND ARA. ALL SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS
SATURDAY EVENING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

UPDATE...
ZONES UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2 WHICH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LA ZONES THROUGH 12Z/06CST.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MANY STRONG TO SEVERE...
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EWD/NEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE LIFTS PAST THE REGION...
WITH THE ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA GETTING INTO THE ACT MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
ZONE PACKAGE FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...
NAMELY DROPPING SOME OF OUR TX ZONES AS THE LINE DEPARTS. UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS NM WILL CONTINUE EWD...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

UPDATE...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC HAVE ADDED RAPIDES AND EVANGELINE
PARISHES TO THE WW. NO OTHER CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES
ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

AVIATION...LIFR HAS LIFTED TO IFR AT BPT AND LCH WITH GUSTY SE
WINDS AND STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IN THE AREA. AEX WITH MVFR CIGS
AND LIGHT WINDS FOR NOW BUT STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS APPROACHING
FROM THE SW. LFT AND ARA WITH VFR CIGS. TSTMS MOVING IN AROUND
02Z. WINDS WILL GO WESTERLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST OF
TWO COLD FRONTS MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHOULD END THE THE THUNDER FOR
THE MOST PART BUT CONTINUE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DOWN TO LIFR. MID-
MORNING SATURDAY THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING. SOME OVERRUNNING IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO UPDATE FOR SVR WW #1 UNTIL 11 PM...INSTEAD OF THE
PROPOSED MIDNIGHT AS MENTIONED BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A RAPID EVOLUTION OF CHANGING WX AS THE S WINDS STILL TRYING TO
MIX OUT THE MARINE FOG. 18Z LCH UPPER AIR SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED
VERY WELL WHY...WITH THIS MARINE FOG LAYER TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
SHARP INVERSION ~900-850MB.

THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT JUST ABOVE THIS
LAYER...BUT INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AND VEERING TO THE SW TO
ABOUT 150KT ~200MB. SO...ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK. SHRA/TSRA
WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND END FROM SW TO NE TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
QUICK SYSTEM...BUT NOT BEFORE SOME OF THESE TSRA POSSIBLY BECOMING
SVR. SPC HAS SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SVR TSTM FOR MOST OF AREA
FOR THIS...MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE
(15-30% PROBABILITY). ALSO...ANOTHER 1.0-1.5 INCHES OF AREAWIDE
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. JUST FINISHED
CONFERENCE CALL WITH SPC...GOING AHEAD AND ISSING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #1 FOR ALL SE TX/W LA WEST OF A LINE FROM AEX
TO LFT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E EARLY SAT ONCE THE SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NE OF THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SUN MORNING. CLEARING EXPECTED BY
SUN...BUT WITH THE COLD HIGH ADVANCING SOUTHWARD...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED. AN AREAWIDE FREEZE EXPECTED MON
MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR...AND NEAR 30 TO LOWER 30S POSSIBLY TO THE COAST.

THE UPPER AIR PATTER OVER THE U.S. NEXT WEEK WILL FAVOR COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES
BRINGING PERIODS OF PRECIP ACROSS OR NEAR THE REGION. THE NEXT ONE
EXPECTED MON...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINING EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH...NOT EXPECTED MORE THAN 15-20% OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. LATER IN THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND MORE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS PROBABLE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP
BY THU & FRI.

DML

MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...LAKES
AND BAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF CAMERON. THUS EXTENDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 6 PM. BY THEN...THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL MIX OUT THE FOG THIS EVENING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG N TO NW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS AND SEAS 3-8 FT FOLLOW SAT. FOR
THIS...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL MARINE ZONES
AND LAKE/BAYS.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  54  62  35  48 /  80  20  10  10
LCH  55  63  37  51 /  80  10  10  10
LFT  56  66  39  50 /  80  20  10  10
BPT  54  62  37  51 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
528 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
091130-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
528 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING AND A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK. THERE IS
A LESSER RISK FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO
OR TWO. LASTLY...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY...WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 MONDAY MORNING...WITH
LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-091130-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
528 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

24

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