Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1241 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND FOG TO REMAIN AROUND THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SFC VSBY DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE IN SOME TAF LCTNS. OTHERWISE WINDS
AT SFC AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. STORMS TO MOV INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNINGS UPDATE IS THE DENSE MARINE FOG LINGERING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS/LAKES & BAYS...AND COASTAL PARISHES AND
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 18Z (NOON)...BUT EXTENDED THE LAND
BASED FOG ADVISORY FOR VERMILION/CAMERON PARISHES AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY FOR THE LINGERING FOG TIL 18Z (NOON) AS WELL.

AFTERWARDS WILL BE A RAPID EVOLUTION OF CHANGING WX AS THE S WINDS
MIX OUT THE FOG WHILE SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. SHRA/TSRA WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE THIS EVENING...AND END FROM SW TO NE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK. A QUICK SYSTEM...BUT NOT BEFORE
SOME OF THESE TSRA POSSIBLY BECOMING SVR. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTM FOR MOST OF AREA FOR THIS...MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. UPDATED THE TREND OF POPS INTO 3
HRLY SEGMENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT.
ALSO...ANOTHER 1.0-1.5 INCHES OF AREAWIDE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH ALL SITES LIFR OR WORSE. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLUGGISH...WITH IFR TO AT BEST MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY EVEN AS VSBYS RISE LATE MORNING. LOW CIGS/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE/RETURN TONIGHT WITH THE ADDITION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG COVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AMIDST A LT WIND
FIELD AND A WARMER AND MOISTER AIRMASS. VSBYS HAVE BEEN
FLUCTUATING AS WINDS SPEEDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY HELPING TO LIFT THE
FOG TO A LOW STRATUS LAYER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...DENSE FOG CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL OVERALL...AND THIS HAS WARRANTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

24

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS SLY
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AT
10 AM THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
TODAY BUT WITH SELY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABV NORMAL
WITH AFTN HIGHS CLIMBING TO NR 70.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TVL EAST...INDUCING
SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACRS WRN TX. INCREASING LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN ACRS SE TX. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING LL JET WILL USHER WARM AND
MOIST AIR INLAND HELPING TO AUGMENT INSTABILITY WHILE A JET STREAK
ALOFT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT. ENHANCED HT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE TROF WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SVR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH MODEST SHEAR IN
PLACE...AN ISLTD TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. SPC
HAS UPGRADED THE MARGINAL SVR RISK TO SLIGHT FOR THIS EVENT.
THUS...MAINTAINED MENTION OF SVR STORMS IN GRIDS/ZONES FOR
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO SVR STORMS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH SOME STORMS. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 0.9 - 1.1 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SAT AS DRY AIR WEDGES INTO
THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF. COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION...WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT. THE HIGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUN AND REMAIN ACRS THE GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH TUES...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 MON MORNING
AND FOR PORTIONS OF CNTL LA TUES MORNING AS WELL...WHILE HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL CLIMB TO THE 50S. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ALLOWING FOR A
WARMING TREND BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FIRST COULD BRING A SMALL BRIEF CHC FOR RAIN MON
NIGHT...MAINLY ACRS THE SRN ZONES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON
WED/THURS WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHC FOR RAIN.

24

MARINE...
WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERRIDING THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS...LAKES AND BAY THIS MORNING. SLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN BY LATE MORNING...HELPING TO LIFT AND MIX OUT THE FOG.

MDT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG UPR
LVL DISTURBANCE...AND THESE FEATURES WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH WLY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. COLD HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN...RESULTING IN STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON SUN.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  54  64  36  49 /  80  20  10  10
LCH  55  65  38  53 /  80  10  10  10
LFT  57  68  40  53 /  80  20  10  10
BPT  52  63  37  53 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ052-073-
     074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432-
     435-450-452-455.

&&

PUBLIC...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
528 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
091130-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
528 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING AND A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK. THERE IS
A LESSER RISK FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO
OR TWO. LASTLY...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY...WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 MONDAY MORNING...WITH
LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-091130-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
528 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
327 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

TXZ201-215-261-082200-
JEFFERSON-SOUTHERN JASPER-HARDIN-
327 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...HARDIN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL JASPER COUNTIES...

AT 326 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WINNIE...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAMSHIRE...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...KOUNTZE...SOUR LAKE...NOME...
SARATOGA...WILDWOOD...BEVIL OAKS...CHINA...VILLAGE MILLS...HONEY
ISLAND...CANEY HEAD AND FANNETT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3052 9453 3052 9405 2989 9423 2989 9444
      3012 9444 3012 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 184DEG 29KT 2991 9443

K. KUYPER