Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
725 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

For the 05/20/16 0000 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
QLCS rapidly moving east over southern TX/LA and the adjacent gulf
waters, with more stratiform rain extending farther north into
central LA. TAFS were assembled with the short term driven largely
by radar/satellite trends for the onset and duration of
convection this evening. Overnight hours were derived from
guidance and model data which depict MVFR to IFR CIGS in the wake
of the rainfall, improving to VFR by mid to late morning Friday.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
Large MCS now crossing se TX and the TX coast with a large swath of
stratiform rain extending north into e cntl TX. This activity was
occurring in advance of a shortwave trough aloft over ern NM/wrn TX.
A band of strong to svr storms was noted fm the upper TX coast sw
toward Corpus Christi. At the sfc, a quasi-stationary front sits
along the TX coast east acrs our coastal waters zones.

DISCUSSION...
The band of strong storms will cross our coastal zones and
adjacent coastal waters late this aftn and evening. ARW/HRRR/ECMWF
all seem to capture recent radar trends fairly well although ARW
is on the fast side, and followed a general blend of this guidance
for POPs and QPF for tonight. The heaviest rainfall is expected
along or south of I-10 with rainfall totals between 1-2 inches.

With the sfc front expected to remain just off the coast tonight,
little in the way of svr weather is expected over inland areas
although a few strong storms could impact the immediate coastal
parishes. Svr potential could be a little more likely toward s
cntl LA late tonight into Friday morning as a wave of low pres
develops on the front and moves inland.

Rain will end from west to east on Friday with the passage of the
upper trough while the sfc front moves east as high pres builds
in behind it. Dry weather is expected to prevail through the
weekend as upper ridging moves east over the area. This will allow
aftn highs to warm into the mid 80s, while the drier airmass will
allow overnight lows to fall into the lower to middle 60s by
Sunday morning. Low rain chcs return by Monday and are expected
each day as the upper ridge breaks down and weak disturbances
begin to approach the area fm the west.

MARINE...
A band of strong storms will cross the coastal waters this
evening. This activity is occurring in response to a strong upper
disturbance crossing the region and nearly stationary coastal
trough/frontal boundary at the sfc. A wave of low pres is expected
to develop along the front tonight, then lift ne acrs MS Friday
morning. The low will drag the front east during the day with
showers and tstms tapering off as high pres builds south. Light to
moderate east to ne winds will prevail on saturday with onshore
flow developing by late in the weekend as the sfc high moves east.
onshore flow will then persist through the week as lower pres
develops over ern CO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  83  66  87 /  80  50  10  10
LCH  69  85  69  87 /  80  40  10  10
LFT  71  85  69  88 /  80  70  10  10
BPT  69  86  70  88 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for LAZ052>054-073-
     074.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for TXZ215.

GM...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
424 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-200930-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
424 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THERE IS ALSO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE
MAIN AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 190.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THESE FEATURES WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SOME
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER FLOOD PRONE AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LOWER ACADIANA ON
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FORECASTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
415 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TXZ215-192245-
JEFFERSON TX-
415 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 414 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF STOWELL TO NEAR HIGH ISLAND.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...NEDERLAND...GROVES...PORT NECHES...NOME...SABINE
PASS...CENTRAL GARDENS...HAMSHIRE...BEVIL OAKS...CHINA...LA BELLE...PORT
ACRES...SOUTHEAST TEXAS REGIONAL AIRPORT...FANNETT...WINNIE AND SEA RIM
STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2989 9436 2989 9444 3011 9445 3012 9430
      3017 9427 3019 9418 3013 9408 3008 9409
      3007 9403 3003 9403 2998 9386 2993 9386
      2986 9393 2984 9392 2984 9395 2982 9393
      2981 9395 2969 9384 2967 9406 2956 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 262DEG 20KT 2978 9449 2959 9435

06

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

LAZ041>044-052-074-200115-
JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-EAST CAMERON LA-ACADIA LA-CALCASIEU LA-
VERMILION LA-LAFAYETTE LA-
709 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CAMERON...VERMILION...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...SOUTHEASTERN CALCASIEU...SOUTHERN
ACADIA AND WEST CENTRAL LAFAYETTE PARISHES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 709 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HAYES TO NEAR LACASSINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE RANGE. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROWLEY...ABBEVILLE...JENNINGS...RAYNE...KAPLAN...LAKE ARTHUR...GUEYDAN...
MERMENTAU...FORKED ISLAND...ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE RANGE...PECAN ISLAND...
LACASSINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...FRESHWATER CITY...HAYES...GRAND
CHENIER...KLONDIKE...MORSE...RICEVILLE...THORNWELL AND ESTHER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2955 9239 2958 9260 2962 9274 2972 9301
      2990 9300 3017 9309 3027 9227 2993 9215
      2976 9216 2976 9218 2975 9216 2974 9217
      2975 9221 2973 9220 2970 9216 2969 9219
      2968 9216 2958 9217 2954 9226 2953 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 267DEG 32KT 3011 9300 2991 9293 2955 9295

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