Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER LOWER ACADIANA...AFFECTING THE SERN TERMINALS BY
06Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FURTHER
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY KLCH/MAYBE
KBPT FIRST BEFORE REACHING KAEX LATER. MEANWHILE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS STILL SHOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IN BETTER CONFINEMENT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONT...AGAIN IMPACTING THE SERN SITES MORE
THAN THE OTHERS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN SO
MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ACADIANA POTENTIAL HIGHEST AREA-WIDE
AND HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THERE. DID TRIM DOWN POPS
SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
OBS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS NOW STARTING TO PREVAIL. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR VALUES EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY MOST
IMPACTING KLFT/KARA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

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PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  82  68  77 /  30  60  50  80
LCH  71  81  71  79 /  40  60  50  80
LFT  71  82  74  80 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  70  83  71  80 /  30  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
011130-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
506 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

TIDES ALONG THE COAST WILL BE ELEVATED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-011130-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
506 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAINFALL GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RUA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
307 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LAZ033-043-044-010845-
ST. LANDRY LA-ACADIA LA-LAFAYETTE LA-
307 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 306 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR EGAN TO RAYNE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAFAYETTE...OPELOUSAS...CROWLEY...EUNICE...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...IOTA...
SUNSET...DUSON...CANKTON...BRANCH...RICHARD...MAXIE...RIDGE...EGAN...MOWATA...
MIRE...ESTHERWOOD AND MIDLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 9250 3053 9204 3014 9212 3014 9226
      3015 9229 3013 9230 3012 9257
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 208DEG 13KT 3021 9246 3026 9227

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