Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Lake Charles, LA

904 
WWUS54 KLCH 130806
SVSLCH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
306 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016

LAC001-045-055-099-113-130816-
/O.CAN.KLCH.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-160413T0830Z/
VERMILION LA-ST. MARTIN LA-IBERIA LA-ACADIA LA-LAFAYETTE LA-
306 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL VERMILION...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN...NORTH CENTRAL IBERIA...EAST CENTRAL ACADIA
AND LAFAYETTE PARISHES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3009 9228 3021 9231 3035 9164 3003 9146
TIME...MOT...LOC 0803Z 264DEG 51KT 3018 9178 

$$

25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1148 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATES TO MARINE WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MCS...INFLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX AND THE COASTAL WATERS. HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND INCREASING TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY OVER 20
KTS. CAPPED IT NEAR 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND INCREASED THE
SEAS. FOR THIS...RAISED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
COASTAL MARINE ZONES FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM WED. SHRA/TSRA POPS STILL
ON TRACK. COASTAL WATERS UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK FRONT NEARLY STALLED ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE UPPER TX AND LA COAST. NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ACROSS WX TX IGNITING AN MCS ACROSS C TX NOW...AND MOST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS FEATURE INTO SE TX IN A FEW HOURS...AND
ACROSS BY OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. STILL LOOKING LIKE TRAINING OF
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR WED. ONGOING FORECAST SHOWS HIGHER POPS
TO NEAR 80% FOR SE TX/SW LA FROM 1-7AM TIMEFRAME...AND 90% ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM 7 AM-1 PM TIMEFRAME. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK
AND SPEED...THIS DISTRIBUTION CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. OTHER
FORECAST PARAMETERS ON TRACK AS WELL.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016/

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECMG A BIT MORE ACTIVE ACROSS VERMILION
AND CAMERON PARISHES THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOOKING TO SEE CEILINGS FALL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCRG IN AREA
COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016/

HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED VERY NEAR THE COAST OF UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVING
EAST. ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERN STREAM BRINGING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC INTO THE GULF SOUTH
REGION.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH AND 1.75
INCHES NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS TWICE THE STANDARD
DEVIATION OF NORM...AND MEAN RH VALUES OVER 90 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT MOISTURE OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND
ENHANCED BY INCREASING DIVERGENT PATTER ALOFT. ALSO...IN RESPONSE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX...SOME RESEMBLANCE OF A SURFACE WAVE
MAY ALSO DEVELOP...AND RIDE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...FURTHER
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND DEEPER SHEAR...WILL LIKELY STAY
OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY HELP KEEP ANY ELEVATED STORMS
FROM BECOMING SURFACE BASED AND TOO STRONG. HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN CONCERN...AS THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...DURATION OF
THE EVENT...AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO TRAINING OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE
COAST. HOWEVER...IF ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FORMS MORE
INTO A MCS...IT MAY HELP ROB ENERGY FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND CUT
DOWN ON RAINFALL RATES. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST...AND 1 TO 2
INCHES NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH RAINFALL AT THE SOUTH END OF RIVER BASINS...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RIVER PROBLEMS. THESE RAINFALL RATES...IF
VERIFIED...MAY CAUSE URBAN TYPE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW AREAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRIEFLY STALL OVER THE OZARKS TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
STALLED NEAR THE COAST...AND WRAP AROUND ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THURSDAY AS SYSTEM OPENS UP AND GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST.

DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY.

PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...TO PLACE THE
FORECAST AREA IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.

RUA

MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AND NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF AND STALLS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  58  69  57  75 /  40  60  40  30
LCH  63  73  61  76 /  80  90  30  30
LFT  65  74  63  76 /  60  90  40  40
BPT  63  73  61  79 /  80  90  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

PUBLIC...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
621 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

GMZ435-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262-131130-
VERMILION BAY-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-
EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
621 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KOUNTZE TEXAS TO OPELOUSAS LOUISIANA LINE.

A BIT OF A LULL IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER FOR THIS EVENT.

A BREAK IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

GMZ430-432-450-452-455-470-472-475-131130-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
621 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN
ONE NAUTICAL MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE NAUTICAL MILE.

A BIT OF A LULL IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

A BREAK IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. A MODEST TO STRONG SOUTHEAST FETCH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

13