Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Lake Charles, LA

618 
WWUS54 KLCH 300723
SVSLCH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
123 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

LAC009-300733-
/O.CAN.KLCH.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-161130T0745Z/
AVOYELLES LA-
123 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR AVOYELLES PARISH IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STRONGEST STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST FOR CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3123 9179 3120 9168 3117 9168 3114 9172
      3110 9170 3109 9172 3105 9172 3098 9180
      3090 9180 3085 9202 3085 9220 3121 9206
      3124 9199 3123 9199 3122 9198 3125 9196
      3122 9194 3123 9192 3126 9194 3129 9188
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 237DEG 45KT 3128 9152 

$$

TINGLER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1147 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.AVIATION...
A cold front is moving through southwestern Louisiana at this
time. This line of storms is producing a 30 mile wide line of
showers and thunderstorms extending from Rapides/Avoyelles
parishes southwest into western Cameron parish this evening.
This line of storms is producing very strong winds...frequent
lightning and gusty winds.

TAF lctns...LCH/LFT/ARA and AEX will experience storms as the
frontal system approaches each locations. Look for IFR conditions
ahead and along the front... conditions will improve behind the
wind shift... MVFR becmg VFR twrds sr.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 943 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Grids/zones updated for Tornado Watch #508 issued earlier and
valid til 11Z for the ern 1/2 of the forecast area.

Convection has begun slowly increasing in coverage the past hour
as activity moves into more moisture-rich area per regional 00z
soundings...and POPs the rest of the night were tweaked based on
latest high res model guidance. Convection should eventually end
from west to east with the passage of an approaching cold front.
Sfc analysis show this front has been basically stationary just
beyond our CWA borders this evening...but the next significant
shortwave aloft moving across wrn TX at this time is expected to
give it a push across the area through the overnight and early
morning hours.

Local 00z soundings show decent low-level directional/speed
shear...sufficient to produce a tornado or two through the
night...although best parameters for tornadic cells still look to
be north or northeast of the area.

Elsewhere inherited grids/zones look in good shape based on latest
obs/trends.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Weather map shows the nearly stationary front located between LFK
(temp/dewpt 67/64) and JAS (temp/dewpt 87/70) to just north of POE
and AEX/ESF with similar temp/dewpt gradients. South of the
front, temperatures in the lower/mid 80s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Radar showing scattered showers and
thunderstorms continuing to develop across Central and North
Louisiana along the front with warnings issued for these. The
best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be mainly this
evening and overnight as this shortwave trough will move through
dragging the cold front back southward and finally through our
region Wednesday. Risk of severe weather continues with Slight
Risk over most of the area, with the Enhanced Risk only touching
Avoyelles, St. Landry and eastern Rapides parishes in C LA.

After the cold front passage, cooler and drier air will prevail
across the region. Cooler than normal temperatures expected for
Wednesday night into the weekend.

The next system to affect the region will begin Friday, gradually
increasing showers with an isolated thunderstorm by Friday night.
This will be more of an over-running event as most of the region
will stay in the cool sector, with a coastal trof or surface low
developing for Saturday. With the persistent and strong easterly
flow, there may be a risk of higher tides for Saturday, depends on
how far north or south the sfc low/trough is across the northwest
Gulf. Shower chances looks to remain on and off through Monday of
next week.

DML

MARINE...
Elevated seas of 4-7 feet continue across the 20-60nm zones this
afternoon due to the continued strong southerly fetch across the
Western Gulf. Wave heights may diminish a bit tonight but increase
once again Wednesday after the frontal passage. So, issued an
Small Craft Advisory through 6 PM Wednesday.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  50  64  37  62 /  80  10   0   0
LCH  57  68  42  64 /  80  10   0   0
LFT  59  68  41  64 /  80  10   0   0
BPT  55  69  43  65 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday afternoon for
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

K. Kuyper

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
301115-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
515 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE MORNING BEGINS WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
APPROACHING 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS. DENSE FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO
STORMS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOP AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS COULD
MATERIALIZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-301115-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
515 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...LAKES AND BAYS WILL RESULT
IN VISIBILITIES OF 1 NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER SYSTEM SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN
TANDEM WITH THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TYPE OF CAUTIONARY OR
ADVISORY NEEDED FOR BRISK WINDS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY.
UNSTABLE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY AS THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1214 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

LAZ028-029-032-300700-
EVANGELINE LA-RAPIDES LA-AVOYELLES LA-
1214 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1213 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BEAVER...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TURKEY CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUNKIE...CHENEYVILLE...TURKEY CREEK...PINE PRAIRIE...BAYOU CHICOT...
BEAVER...CHICOT STATE PARK AND ST. LANDRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3110 9232 3085 9212 3085 9221 3082 9221
      3069 9254 3078 9260 3089 9260
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 239DEG 23KT 3082 9253

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1217 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

LAZ041-042-300645-
JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-CALCASIEU LA-
1217 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALCASIEU PARISHES UNTIL 1245 AM CST...

AT 1216 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER IOWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JENNINGS...WELSH...IOWA...FENTON...LEBLEU SETTLEMENT...PINE ISLAND...
LACASSINE...BELL CITY AND ROANOKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3027 9311 3044 9288 3044 9278 3046 9277
      3025 9262 3023 9262 3008 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 240DEG 38KT 3024 9298

TINGLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1218 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

LAZ073-074-300645-
WEST CAMERON LA-EAST CAMERON LA-
1218 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1218 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HOLLY BEACH...OR NEAR JOHNSONS BAYOU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOHNSONS BAYOU...SABINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE...HOLLY BEACH...HACKBERRY
AND CONSTANCE BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9345 3000 9333 2999 9334 2993 9315
      2987 9324 2993 9324 2996 9326 2995 9334
      2985 9335 2987 9335 2988 9339 2986 9344
      2982 9339 2982 9335 2980 9335 2984 9332
      2983 9329 2976 9340 2977 9348 2973 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 230DEG 37KT 2978 9355

TINGLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

LAZ033-042-043-300715-
JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-ST. LANDRY LA-ACADIA LA-
1245 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...
WEST CENTRAL ST. LANDRY AND NORTHWESTERN ACADIA PARISHES UNTIL 115 AM
CST...

AT 1245 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PINE ISLAND...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF JENNINGS...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EUNICE...JENNINGS...WELSH...IOTA...EVANGELINE...PINE ISLAND...
MOWATA...MAXIE...HATHAWAY AND ROANOKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3036 9288 3048 9255 3048 9249 3050 9248
      3050 9246 3052 9246 3054 9240 3054 9237
      3030 9227 3018 9281
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 252DEG 31KT 3032 9271

TINGLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1248 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

LAZ073-074-300715-
WEST CAMERON LA-EAST CAMERON LA-
1248 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1247 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER HOLLY BEACH...OR 7 MILES WEST OF CAMERON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMERON...HOLLY BEACH...GIBBSTOWN AND CONSTANCE BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2977 9365 3001 9334 2985 9335 2987 9335
      2988 9339 2986 9344 2980 9335 2984 9332
      2985 9325 2990 9323 3003 9328 2990 9299
      2978 9324 2976 9334 2979 9332 2976 9335
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 234DEG 32KT 2980 9343

TINGLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

LAZ029-032-033-300715-
EVANGELINE LA-ST. LANDRY LA-AVOYELLES LA-
1252 AM CST WED NOV 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN EVANGELINE...NORTH
CENTRAL ST. LANDRY AND AVOYELLES PARISHES UNTIL 115 AM CST...

AT 1251 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MOREAUVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VILLE PLATTE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...MAMOU...SIMMESPORT...
MOREAUVILLE...MORROW...BORDELONVILLE...COTTONPORT...PINE PRAIRIE...
MANSURA...HESSMER...EVERGREEN...PLAUCHEVILLE...BIG BEND...INDIAN
LAKE...LAKE OPHELIA NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...WHITEVILLE...REDDELL
AND CHICOT STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST FOR CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3122 9178 3120 9169 3105 9172 3098 9180
      3086 9182 3083 9180 3055 9241 3071 9249
      3097 9227 3096 9221 3102 9222 3126 9200
      3124 9200 3123 9199 3122 9199 3123 9192
      3127 9195 3130 9191
TIME...MOT...LOC 0651Z 235DEG 46KT 3104 9193

TINGLER