River Flood Warning 118, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
708 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.AVIATION...
Storm development continues over a large swath of south and
south-central Louisiana as the low tracks back to the west.
Ceilings...vsby... and winds will be an issue throughout the
day. Looking for mvfr to ifr conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Sunday
The main forecast issue in the short term is the continued heavy
rainfall across the area associated with an area of low pressure. IR
Satellite imagery and MRMS reflectivity this morning show
convection has redeveloped across Acadiana. The atmosphere
continues to be primed for heavy rainfall with precipitable water
of 2.5 inches at or above record values for August. Given the deep
warm cloud layer indicated by a freezing level of 16 kft in the
00Z LCH sounding convection will continue to efficiently produce
copious amounts of rainfall. Trends in satellite and radar
imagery along with latest model guidance indicates that the
highest rainfall amounts through the next 12 hours will once again
be over lower Acadiana where some of the heaviest rainfall has
occurred over the past 24 hours. Additional rainfall of 4 to 8
inches with locally higher amounts can be expected across Acadiana
over the next 24 hours which will likely exacerbate the ongoing
flooding.

By Sunday, model guidance indicates the axis of precipitable
water in excess of 2.5 inches will shift westward and be centered
over southeast Texas and western Louisiana. As a result, highest
QPF and POPs shift to the west during the day on Sunday. Based on
current guidance with QPF totals of 3 to 5 inches across the
western portion of the CWA, there will be no adjustments to the
area or duration of the Flash Flood Watch at this time. Any
changes to the watch will likely have to be reevaluated later on
today.

Long Term...Tuesday through the weekend
By Tuesday, the low pressure that has brought the rainfall to our
region is forecast to be picked up by a trough at 500 hPa moving
eastward. Precipitable water will remain above the 75th percentile
for August and with a region favorable for ascent downstream of
the trough axis POPs will remain in the chance to likely range
through Thursday. After this time frame, an elongated 591 dam
ridge is forecast to begin redeveloping along the Gulf Coast. This
will usher in a return of climatological POPs by next weekend.

MARINE...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
weekend as an area of low pressure moves westward. Onshore flow of
10 to 20 knots will continue through the day today, with a Small
Craft Advisory in effect for the coastal waters. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish by the middle of next week as
the low pressure system exits the region. Onshore flow will also
diminish as a surface ridge redevelops along the Gulf Coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  80  40
LCH  88  76  86  76 /  80  80  80  40
LFT  81  75  86  76 / 100  80  70  40
BPT  90  76  87  77 /  80  80  80  50

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION from late tonight through Sunday
     afternoon for GMZ450-452-470-472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

AVIATION...19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
528 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-141030-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-
528 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 7
INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. RESIDENTS ARE URGED
TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TO BE ALERT FOR
RISING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION. HOWEVER...DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGE TO REPORT FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-141030-
TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
528 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-141030-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
528 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WATERSPOUTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE NAUTICAL MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JENNINGS                30.22N 92.66W
08/13/2016                   JEFFERSON DAVIS    LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KPLC RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF FLOODING ON KING STREET
            IN JENNINGS. CALLER SAID WATER WAS NEARING HOMES.

&&

DJONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAFAYETTE               30.22N 92.03W
08/13/2016                   LAFAYETTE          LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KLFY REPORTS CARS STALLED OUT ON AMBASSADOR CAFFERY NEAR
            DULLES IN LAFAYETTE PARISH.

&&

DJONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
730 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARKSVILLE              31.13N 92.06W
08/13/2016                   AVOYELLES          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AVOYELLES SHERIFF REPORTS WATER ENTERING HOMES IN
            MARKSVILLE.

&&

DJONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
910 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VILLE PLATTE            30.69N 92.28W
08/13/2016                   EVANGELINE         LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EVANGELINE PARISH SHERIFF REPORTS 20 PEOPLE EVACUATED
            FROM FLOODED HOMES IN VILLE PLATTE. FLOODED HOMES ALSO
            REPORTED IN MAMOU.

&&

DJONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1005 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEW IBERIA              30.01N 91.82W
08/13/2016                   IBERIA             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            IBERIA PARISH SHERIFF REPORTS THAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
            THEY HAVE CONDUCTED APPROXIMATELY 350 HIGH WATER RESCUES
            ACROSS IBERIA PARISH.

&&

DJONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1110 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JENNINGS                30.22N 92.66W
08/13/2016                   JEFFERSON DAVIS    LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            JEFF DAVIS SHERIFF REPORTS THAT NEARLY ALL STATE ROADS
            HAVE WATER ON THEM AND MANY PARISH ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE.
            I-10 EXIT 64 AND OFF RAMPS ARE FLOODED. JENNINGS MAYOR
            SAID THAT SOUTH MAIN STREET AND JEFFERSON STREET ARE
            FLOODED.

&&

DJONES